Download Chart 1 - Norges Bank

Charts for Inflation Report
2/2002
Chart 1.1 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes
and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1)
and distributed by imported consumer goods and
domestically produced goods and services2).
12-month rise. Per cent
5
Goods and services produced in Norway
3
5
3
CPI-ATE
1
1
-1
-1
Imported consumer goods
-3
1999
-3
2000
2001
1) Norges
2002
Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures
published by Statistics Norway
2)
Norges Bank's estimates
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 1.2 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted
for tax changes and excluding energy products.
12-month rise. Per cent
CPI
4
4
CPI-AT1)
3
3
CPI-ATE1)
2
2
1
1
0
1999
0
2000
2001
2002
CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changes
CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
1) Norges
Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published
by Statistics Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 1.3 Consumer prices. Energy products1). 12month rise. Per cent
40
25
40
Electricity
25
Fuel and lubricants
10
10
-5
-5
-20
1999
-20
2000
2001
2002
Electricity accounts for 3.3% of the total CPI. Fuel and
lubricants account for 4.2% of the total CPI
1)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 1.4 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes.
Cars, clothing and footwear and imported consumer
goods. 12-month rise. Per cent
6
4
6
Imported consumer goods
Cars
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
Clothing and footwear
-6
-8
1999
-6
-8
2000
2001
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2002
Chart 1.5 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes
and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) by
supplier sector. 12-month rise. Per cent
14
12
10
14
Services with wages
as a dominant price
factor
Transport services
12
10
8
8
6
6
4
2
0
1999
4
House rent
CPI-ATE
2
0
2000
2001
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2002
Chart 1.6 Effective NOK exchange rates. Importweighted exchange rate1) and trade-weighted
exchange rate index. A falling curve denotes an
appreciation of the krone
115
110
Trade-weighted exchange rate
index, TWI (1990=100)
115
110
105
105
100
100
95
90
Import-weighted exchange
rate, I-44
(1995=100)
95
90
85
85
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
1) The
import-weighted exchange rate index was revised on 27
May 2002. See www.norges-bank.no ”News archive" for further
information.
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.7 Expectations concerning short-term
money market rates.1) Quarterly figures. Per cent
8
Forward rates
27 June
6
8
6
Forward rates
25 October
4
Forward rates
21 February
4
2
2
0
2000
0
2001
1 Three-month
2002
2003
2004
money market rates up to end-Q2 (27 June). Threemonth forward rates are estimated using four money market rates
and five government bond yields with different maturities as
observed on 27 June.
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.8 Forward rate differential against Germany.
Percentage points
4
4
3
3
2
2
27 June
1
1
21 February
25 October
0
0
01
02
03
04
Source: Norges Bank
05
06
07
08
09
Chart 1.9 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100.
Seasonally adjusted volume.
126
124
126
124
2002
122
2001
122
120
120
118
118
116
116
2000
114
112
114
112
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 1.10 Credit from domestic sources (C2). Total
and by borrowing sector. 12-month rise. Per cent
Credit to nonfinancial enterprises
15
C2
adjusted1)
10
15
10
C2
5
0
1997
5
Credit to
households
0
1998
1999
1) Adjusted
2000
2001
2002
for central government transfer of capital to local
government in January to repay debt in connection with the state
takeover of hospitals.
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 1.11 Unemployed (LFS), registered
unemployed and persons participating in labour
market programmes. Percentage of labour force.
Seasonally adjusted1)
8
7
6
8
Registered unemployed and
labour market programmes
5
2
6
5
4
3
7
LFS unemployment
Registered unemployed
1
4
3
2
1
0
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1) LFS
unemployment: 3-month moving average
Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour
Chart 1.12 Change in unemployment on same
month previous year. In thousands of persons
12
9
12
6
9
Eastern
Norway
Whole country
6
Western Norway
Southern
Norway
3
0
0
-3
-6
jan 00
3
Central and
northern Norway
jul 00
jan 01
Source: Directorate of Labour
jul 01
jan 02
-3
-6
Chart 1.13 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and
Japan. Percentage change from previous quarter
(annualised)
8
6
US
Euro area
Japan
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
sep 00 des 00 mar 01 jun 01 sep 01 des 01 mar 02
Sources: National sources of statistics and EcoWin
Chart 1.14 Equity prices and long-term interest rates
in the US, and prices for industrials (USD).
Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100.
110
110
Long rates
100
100
90
90
80
Wilshire 5000
80
Industrials
70
70
jan 01 apr 01 jul 01 okt 01 jan 02 apr 02 jul 02
Sources: Norges Bank, EcoWin, The Economist
and Wilshire Associates
Chart 2.1 Quarterly change in US GDP, annualised.
Contribution to growth in volume. Per cent
Seasonally adjusted
10
Pvt consumption
Private investment
Gen.govt consumpt and investm.
8
6
Net exports
Inventories
GDP
10
8
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
2000
2001
2002
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges
Bank
Chart 2.2 US: Household debt-servicing capacity.
Interest and principal as a percentage of disposable
income
Consumer loans
8
6
8
6
Housing loans
4
4
2
2
0
0
85
87
89
91
93
Source: The Federal Reserve
95
97
99
01
Chart 2.3 Quarterly change in euro area GDP,
annualised. Contribution to growth in volume. Per
cent. Seasonally adjusted
10
Pvt consumption
Investments
Public consumption
8
Net exports
Stocks
GDP
10
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
2000
2001
2002
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges
Bank
Chart 2.4 Japan: industrial output and exports
Percentage growth compared with same month
previous year
20
20
Exports
10
10
0
0
-10
-20
1997
-10
Industrial output
-20
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Sources: Japanese Ministry of Finance and Ministry
of International Trade and Industry
Chart 2.5 Growth in hourly wages in industry in the
US and the euro area. Growth on same quarter
previous year. Per cent
5
5
4
4
US
3
3
2
1
Euro area
2
1
0
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: OECD
Chart 2.6 The oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel
Daily figures
40
40
30
Futures prices
26 June 2002
20
IR 2/2002
10
30
20
10
0
1999
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Sources: International Petroleum Exchange, Telerate and
Norges Bank
Chart 2.7 Metal prices (level) and industrial output in
G7 countries1). 12-month rise. Per cent
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
1993
G7 industrial output
(left-hand scale)
110
100
90
80
70
Metal prices, index
(right-hand scale)
60
50
1995
1997
1999
2001
1) US, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Canada and Italy
Sources: OECD and The Economist
Chart 3.1 Mainland GDP, person-hours and
employment. Percentage change from previous year
6
6
5
5
Mainland GDP
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
Employment
Person-hours
-2
-3
-1
-2
-3
1990
1992
1994
Source: Statistics Norway
1996
1998
2000
Chart 3.2 Change in structural non-oil budget
balance1)
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
1990
1992 1994
1996
1998
2000 2002
-3
2004
1) Budget
balance as a percentage of trend mainland GDP;
change on previous year.
Source: Revised National Budget, Ministry of Finance
Chart 3.3 Real underlying spending growth in the
government budget and growth in mainland GDP.
Percentage change from previous year
6
6
Mainland GDP
4
4
2
2
0
0
Underlying
spending growth
-2
-2
-4
-4
90
92
94
96
98
00
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Ministry of Finance
and Norges Bank
02
Chart 3.4 Household saving as a percentage of
disposable income.
Previous national
accounts figures
8
8
6
6
Revised national
accounts figures
4
4
2
2
0
0
95
96
97
Source: Statistics Norway
98
99
00
01
Chart 3.5 Household debt as a percentage of
disposable income and household interest expenses
after tax as a percentage of cash income
170
12
Interest burden
(right-hand scale)
150
130
110
9
6
Debt
(left-hand scale)
90
3
0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3.6 Relative labour costs in Norwegian
manufacturing compared with trading partners.
Index: 1970=100
140
140
130
130
120
Local currency
120
110
110
100
100
90
Common currency
90
80
80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sources: Statistics Norway, TBU and Norges Bank
Chart 3.7 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2001.
In 1000s of people employed.
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 3.8 Percentage change in employment from
previous year and unemployment1) as a percentage
of the labour force
4
8
2
6
0
4
-2
2
0
Unemployment rate
(left-hand scale)
Employed
(right-hand scale)
-4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
1) Total of registered unemployed and persons participating in
labour market programmes
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Directorate of Labour and
Norges Bank
Chart 3.9 Percentage change in labour force from
previous year, and labour force as a percentage of
population aged 16-74 (labour force participation
rate).
4
74
2
72
70
0
68
66
Labour force
participation
(left-hand scale)
Change in LFS labour
force (right-hand scale)
64
-2
-4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.1 Annual wage growth1) and unemployment
rate2). Per cent
8
8
Annual wage growth
6
4
4
Unemployment rate
2
0
1993
6
2
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
Average for all groups. Including costs of additional vacation days in
2000 and 2001
2) Registered unemployed and persons on labour market
programmes as a percentage of the labour force
1)
Sources:TBU, Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank
Chart 4.2 Profitability in manufacturing. Wage
share1) and return on total assets2).
10
9
78
Return on total assets
(left-hand scale)
76
8
74
7
72
6
Wage share (righthand scale)
5
4
1990
1)
70
68
66
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Labour costs as a percentage of value added
Result for the year + net interest and financial costs as a share
of total assets. Excluding oil companies
2)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.3 Producer and consumer prices for
Norway's trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent
6
6
4
4
Consumer prices
2
2
0
0
-2
Producer prices
-2
-4
-4
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Sources: EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and
Norges Bank
Chart 4.4 Import-weighted exchange rate and prices
for imported consumer goods adjusted for tax
changes. 12-month rise. Per cent
6
Imported
consumer goods
6
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
-6
Import-weighted exchange rate
(1995=100)
-6
-9
-9
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.5 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes
and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and
distributed by imported consumer goods and
domestically produced goods and services. 12month rise. Per cent
5
4
5
Goods and services produced in Norway
3
2
1
4
3
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
2
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 jul 03 jan 04 jul 04
-3
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.6 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted
for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPIATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
5
4
3
5
4
CPI
CPI-ATE
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 jul 03 jan 04 jul 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.7 Consumer price inflation1). Projections and
uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent
4
4
3
3
2.5
2.5
2
2
1
30% 50% 70% 90%
0
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 jul 03 jan 04 jul 04
1) Adjusted
for tax changes and excl. energy products (CPI-ATE).
The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer
price inflation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1
0
Chart 4.8 Various scenarios for the trade-weighted
exchange rate index (TWI)
115
110
115
Trade-weighted exchange
rate index (1990=100)
110
Uncovered interest
rate parity
105
105
100
100
95
Average last 3
mths (97.1)
90
85
1999
Average
June (95.1)
95
90
85
2000
2001
Source: Norges Bank
2002
2003
2004
Chart 4.9 Projected rise in the CPI-ATE assuming
that the interest rate follows market expectations,
and different assumptions regarding the krone
exchange rate. 12-month rise. Per cent
4
3
2
4
CPI-ATE
Uncovered interest rate parity
Average June
3
2
1
1
0
0
jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 jan 03 jul 03 jan 04 jul 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
To annex:
12
12
10
10
Overnight rate
8
8
IR 2/02: 6.5
6
6
Deposit rate
4
2
4
3-month money market rate
0
1995
2
0
1996
1997
Source: Norges Bank
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
115
115
Trade-weighted exchange rate
index, TWI (1990=100)
110
110
105
105
100
IR 2/02: 97.1
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
(1995=100)
95
IR 2/02: 92.5
100
95
90
90
85
1995
85
1996
1997
Source: Norges Bank
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to
the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland
Norway (C3). 12-month growth. Per cent
15
15
C3 mainland Norway
10
10
C2
5
5
Credit to
households
0
1997
0
1998
Source: Norges Bank
1999
2000
2001
2002
Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent
4,5
4,5
4,0
4,0
CPI
3,5
3,0
3,5
CPI-ATE
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
jul 00 sep 00 nov 00 jan 01 mar 01 mai 01 jul 01 sep 01 nov 01 jan 02 mar 02 mai 02
Source: Norges Bank
3-month rates in the US, the euro area and Japan. Per cent
7
7
6
6
US
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
Euro area1)
Japan
2
1
1
0
1995
0
1996
1)Theoretical
1997
1998
ECU rate up to December 1998
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
1999
2000
2001
2002
Mainland GDP and private consumption. Percentage change from previous
year
7
7
Private
consumption
6
5
4
6
5
Mainland GDP
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: Statistics Norway
RAMMEFIGURER:
Why has the krone
appreciated? (ArK og TBe)
Chart 1 Effective NOK exchange rate. Tradeweighted exchange rate index (TWI)1)
94
94
97
97
100
100
103
103
106
106
TWI (1990=100)
109
109
112
112
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
1) A rising
curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 2 Trade-weighted exchange rate index1) and
interest rate differentials against other countries2)
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
94
3-month interest rate differential
3-month
(left-hand scale)
97
12-month interest rate
differential
(left-hand scale)
100
103
2,0
106
1,5
1,0
2000
1) A rising
2)
TWI (right-hand scale)
112
2001
2002
curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
US, euro area, the UK and Sweden
Source: Norges Bank
109
Chart 3 The trade-weighted exchange rate index1)
and the global hazard index (GHI)
30
112
TWI (right-hand scale)
25
109
20
106
15
103
10
100
GHI (left-hand scale)
5
97
0
1997
94
1) A falling
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 4 The trade-weighted exchange rate index1)
and the oil price (Brent Blend)
40
94
TWI (right-hand scale)
35
97
30
100
25
20
103
15
106
10
5
0
1997
1) A rising
Oil price, USD/barrel
(left-hand scale)
109
112
1998
1999
2000
2001
curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Source: Norges Bank
2002
Chart 5 Share prices in the US and effective USD
exchange rate1). Weekly figures
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
1997
130
Wilshire 5000 (left-hand
scale)
125
120
115
110
105
100
USD effective exchange rate
(right-hand scale)
95
90
1998
1) A rising
1999
2000
2001
2002
curve denotes an appreciation of the krone
Equity price index consisting of all limited companies with head
office in the US for which share prices are quoted. There are
currently over 6500 companies.
2)
Source: Norges Bank
Box:
Oil price
Correlation between the oil price, GDP growth and
inflation in industrial countries. Annual figures,
2002 and 2003 IMF projections
14
100
Inflation (left-hand scale)
12
80
10
Real oil price
(right-hand scale)
8
60
6
40
4
20
2
0
1970
GDP (left-hand scale)
1978
1986
Source: IMF and Norges Bank
1994
0
2002
Box:
BRW/KHO
Chart 1 Direct effect of reduced tariff rates
108
18
Price index for clothing in CPI
106
16
(1998=100)
(left-hand scale)
104
14
102
12
100
10
98
8
96
6
Average tariff rate.
Per cent (right-hand
94
4
scale)
92
2
90
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norges Bank, the Ministry of
Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Chart 2 Import shares by country for the 25
largest trading partners, clothing.
1,0
Eastern Europe (free
trade agreements
with EFTA)
0,8
Developing
countries
0,6
0,4
0,2
EEA/EFTA
0,0
1980 1985 1990
US
1995 2000
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 3 Foreign producer prices for clothing.
Indices, 1980 Q1 = 100
220
220
200
180
Producer prices
excluding price level
effects
120
180
160
160
140
200
Producer prices incl.
price level effects
140
120
100
100
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Sources: Statistics Norway, Datastream and Norges Bank
Chart 4 The fit of the model.
Rise in prices for clothing in the CPI
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
1980
Change in prices from
the model
Actual change in
prices
1984
1988
1992
1996
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2000
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
RAMMEFIGURER:
How does the krone exchange
rate influence the CPI
Effects on the rise in consumer prices of a lasting
appreciation of 5 per cent of the import-weighted
krone exchange rate. Percentage points
0,2
0,1
-0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
-0,1
-0,2
-0,3
-0,4
-0,5
Sub-index model
-0,6
Source: Norges Bank
RIMINI