Download Monetary Policy Report 2007:3, pictures

MPR 2007:3
071030
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Per cent, quarterly averages
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Repo rate
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
0
Dec-10
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
6
6
90%
75%
50%
GDP
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
-1
Dec-10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
5
5
90%
75%
50%
CPI
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
-1
Dec-10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. UND1X with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
4
4
90%
75%
50%
UND1X
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
-1
Dec-10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 5. GDP for the United States and the Euro
area
Percentage quarterly change, seasonally adjusted data
4.5
4.5
USA
Euro area
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 6. GDP in Sweden and the world
Annual percentage change
7
7
Sweden
The world
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
Sources:
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 7. Total Swedish exports and export market
index for goods
Annual percentage change
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Swedish exports
Export market index for goods
Average 1985-2006, Export market index
-10
81
86
91
96
Note.Dots represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
01
-10
06
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 8. TCW exchange rate
Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
140
Outcome
M PR 2007:2
M PR 2007:3
138
140
138
136
136
134
134
132
132
130
130
128
128
126
126
124
124
122
122
120
120
02
03
04
05
06
Note.Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
07
08
09
10
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 9. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and
saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable
income
7
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable incomes (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
6
14
12
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 10. Public sector consumption expenditure
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of GDP,
current prices
4
29
Percentage change (left scale)
Percentage of GDP (right scale)
3
28
2
27
1
26
0
25
-1
24
-2
23
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 11. General government balance
Per cent of GDP
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
Net lending
-8
-8
Cyclically adjusted net lending
-10
-10
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Note. Cyclically-adjusted net lending is calculated using the ESCB method.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 12. Population, labour force and number of
employed
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
6000
6000
Labour force
Employment
Population, aged 16-64
5700
5700
5400
5400
5100
5100
4800
4800
4500
4500
4200
4200
3900
3900
3600
3600
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
Sources:
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
99
01
03
05
07
09
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 13. Percentage of open unemployed 16-64 years old
and percentage of unemployed 15-74 years according to the
new EU ordinance
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
12
12
Open unemployment
Unemployment, 15-74 year-olds (EU definition)
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
01
03
05
07
09
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 14. Labour productivity for the economy as
a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5
5
M PR 2007:2
M PR 2007:3
HP-trend
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
Note.Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
01
03
05
07
09
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 15. Unit labour costs for the economy as a
whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
8
8
Unit labour cost
Hourly labour cost
Productivity
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
94
96
98
00
02
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s
04
06
08
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 16. CPI and UND1X
Annual percentage change
4
4
CPI
UND1X
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 17. UND1X excluding energy
Annual percentage change
4
4
M PR 2007:3
M PR 2007:2
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 18. GDP
Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
7
7
M PR 2007:2
M PR 2007:3
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 19. Number of employed
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
4600
4600
M PR 2007:3
M PR 2007:2
4500
4500
4400
4400
4300
4300
4200
4200
4100
4100
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 20. Oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel
80
80
Oil price, outcome
Forwards, average up to 15 October 2007
Forwards, average up to 11 June 2007
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Forward rates are calculated as a 15-day average.
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 21. Repo rate forecasts on different
occasions
Per cent, quarterly average
5
5
Repo rate
M PR 2007:3
M PR 2007:2
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
08
09
10
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 22. UND1X forecasts on different occasions
Annual percentage change
3.0
M PR 2007:3
M PR 2007:2
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 1. Inflation, annual average
Annual percentage change
CPI
UND1X
UND1X excluding energy
2006
1.4
1.2
0.6
2007
2.1 (2.1)
1.1 (1.1)
1.4 (1.3)
2008
2.9 (2.3)
2.0 (2.0)
2.0 (1.9)
2009
2.4 (2.3)
2.1 (2.1)
2.2 (2.2)
2010
2.2
2.0
2.2
Note. The assessment in the June Monetary Policy Report is stated in parentheses.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month rate
Annual percentage change
CPI
UND1X
Dec.-07
2.8 (2.7)
1.5 (1.4)
Dec.-08
2.8 (2.3)
2.2 (2.3)
Dec.-09
2.3 (2.2)
2.1 (2.0)
Dec.-10
2.2
2.0
UND1X excluding energy
1.8 (1.7)
2.1 (2.1)
2.3 (2.2)
2.2
Note. The assessment in the June Monetary Policy Report is stated in parentheses. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 3. Key figures
Annual percentage change unless otherwise
specified
Key figures
GDP, the world
Crude oil price,Brent.
USD/ barrel, annual average
Exchange rate,TCW index, annual average
Repo rate, per cent, annual average
General government
net lending, percantage of GDP
GDP.,Sweden
Numbers employed
Open unemployment,
per cent of labour force
Hourly wage in economy as a whole
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5.4
5.0 (4.8)
4.6 (4.7)
4.4 (4.5)
4.5
65
70 (67)
77 (72)
75 (71)
74
127.4
2.2
2.4
124.9 (124.8)
3.5 (3.5)
2.6 (2.1)
4.2
1.8
5.4
3.1 (3.1)
2.6 (2.3)
4.6 (4.7)
2.8 (3.0)
1.5 (1.0)
4.3 (4.5)
2.3 (2.3)
0.2 (0.2)
4.2 (4.3)
2.6
0.0
4.3
3.1
3.9 (3.9)
4.5 (4.5)
4.2 (4.2)
3.8
122.4 (123.0) 121.5 (122.0)
4.3 (4.2)
4.4 (4.4)
2.6 (1.9)
2.2 (1.6)
121.1
4.3
1.8
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksba
Table 4. Repo rate forecast
Per cent, quarterly average
Repo rate
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q4 2008
Q4 2009
Q2 2010
3.6 (3.6)
3.9 (3.9)
4.1 (4.1)
4.3 (4.2)
4.4 (4.3)
4.4 (4.4)
4.3
Note. The assessment in the June Monetary Policy Report is stated in parentheses.
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 23. Repo rate assumptions
Per cent, quarterly averages
6
6
M ain scenario
Lower scenario
Higher Scenario
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
08
09
10
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 24. UND1X
Annual percentage change
3.0
3.0
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 25. GDP
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5.0
5.0
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
4.5
4.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 26. Estimated output gaps (GDP)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
3
3
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
06
07
08
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 27. Estimated labour market gaps
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
3
3
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
2
2
Higher interest rate
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
06
07
08
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 28. Number of hours worked
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
4.0
4.0
M ain scenario
3.5
Lower interest rate
3.5
3.0
Higher interest rate
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
04
05
06
07
08
Sources:
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 29. Employment rate
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
78
78
77
77
76
76
75
75
74
74
73
73
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
72
72
Higher interest rate
71
71
70
70
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Sources:
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
06
07
08
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 30. Open unemployment
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
8.0
8.0
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
7.5
7.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
06
07
08
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 31. Nominal wages, scenario with higher
cost pressures
Annual percentage change
7
7
Higher cost pressures
M ain scenario
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 32. Labour productivity, scenario with
higher cost pressures
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5
5
M ain scenario
Higher cost pressures
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 33. GDP, scenario with higher cost
pressures
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5
5
M ain scenario
Higher cost pressures
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 34. UND1X, scenario with higher cost
pressures
Annual percentage change
3.0
3.0
M ain scenario
Higher cost pressures
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 35. Repo rate, scenario with higher cost
pressures
Per cent, quarterly averages
6
6
M ain scenario
Higher cost pressures
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 36. GDP, scenario with weaker international
demand
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
5
5
M ain scenario
Weaker international demand
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 37. UND1X, scenario with weaker
international demand
Annual percentage change
3.0
3.0
M ain scenario
Weaker international demand
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 38. Repo rate, scenario with weaker
international demand
Per cent, quarterly averages
6
6
M ain scenario
Weaker international demand
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
08
09
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden
Figure 39. The difference between interbank rates
and government bond rates in 2007
Percentage points
2.5
2.5
United States
Sweden
Euro area
United Kingdom
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Jan
Feb
M ar
Apr
M ay
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 40. Reference rate in Sweden
Per cent
4.60
4.40
4.60
STIBOR T/ N
STIBOR, 1 month
STIBOR, 3 months
4.40
4.20
4.20
4.00
4.00
3.80
3.80
3.60
3.60
3.40
3.40
3.20
3.20
3.00
01-Aug 11-Aug 21-Aug 31-Aug
10-Sep
20-Sep
30-Sep
Note. STIBOR T/N refers to the overnight right from tomorrow until the day after
10-Oct
3.00
20-Oct
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 41. Interest rates in Sweden
Per cent
6
6
Repo rate
Interbank rate
M ortgages
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: SBAB and the Riksbank
Figure 42. GDP
Annual percentage change
6
6
USA
OECD
Euro area
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Eurostat, OECD and the US Department of Commerce
Figure 43. Purchasing managers index in the
United States
Index, unchanged activity = 50
70
70
Service sector
M anufacturing industry
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Figure 44. Employment and private consumption in
the United States
Annual percentage change
6
6
Private consumption
Employment
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce
Figure 45. Confidence indicators for the
manufacturing industry
Balance
20
20
Euro area
France
Germany
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: European Commission
Figure 46. Confidence indicators for households
Balance. Deviations from historical averages, 1985-2006.
25
25
Euro area
20
20
France
Italy
15
15
Germany
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: European Commission and the Riksbank
Figure 47. Monetary policy expectations in the
Euro area and the United States
Per cent
6
6
Refi
Refi 15 October 2007
Refi 6 June 2007
Fed funds
Fed funds 15 October 2007
Fed funds 6 June 2007
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Source: The Riksbank
Diagram 48. Implied forward rates
Per cent
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
Repo rate
Based on bank securities/ FRA 20 June 2007
2.0
Based on bank securities/ FRA 4 June 2007
Survey average (Prospera), 26 September 2007
1.5
2.0
1.5
Based on bank securities/ FRA 15 October 2007
1.0
1.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
Figure 49. Long-term interest rates
Per cent
5,5
5,5
Sweden
USA
Germany
5,0
5,0
4,5
4,5
4,0
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
jan-04
jul-04
jan-05
jul-05
jan-06
jul-06
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
jan-07
jul-07
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 50. Exchange rate movements
SEK/EUR and SEK/USD
10.0
10.0
SEK/ EUR
SEK/ USD
9.5
9.5
9.0
9.0
8.5
8.5
8.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
Jan-04
6.0
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 51. TCW exchange rate
Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
138
138
Outcome
136
136
Forecasts for third and fourth quarters in M PR 2007:2
134
134
132
132
130
130
128
128
126
126
124
124
122
122
120
Jan-04
120
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 52. Stock market movements
Index, 1 January 1999=100
220
220
OM X 30, Sweden
200
200
S&P 500, USA
DAX 30, Germany
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Figure 53. The money supply
Annual percentage change
20
20
M0
M2
M3
16
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 54. House prices and total lending to
Swedish households
Annual percentage change
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
Lending to households
Property prices
2
2
0
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 55. GDP
Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted
data
7
7
M PR 2007:2
M PR 2007:3
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
98
00
02
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
04
06
08
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 56. Confidence indicators for major
industries
Seasonally adjusted balance
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
M anufacturing industry
Retail trade
Private service industries
Construction
-80
-80
-100
-100
98
00
02
04
06
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 57. Gross fixed capital formation
Annual percentage change
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
Housing
Business sector excluding housing
-30
-30
Public authorities
-40
-40
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank
Figure 58. Retail sales and household consumption
Annual percentage change
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Total household consumption
Household consumption of retail goods
Retail sales
-2
-4
-2
-4
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 59. Household saving
Per cent of disposable income
14
14
Saving
Financial balance, excl. saving in occupational pensions
Saving, excl. saving in occupational pensions
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
94
95
96
97
98
Note. Four-quarter moving average.
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 60. General government balance
Per cent of GDP
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
Net lending
-8
Cyclically adjusted net lending
-10
-8
-10
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 61. National gross saving
Per cent of GDP
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
National saving
10
10
Current account
Gross fixed capital formation
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 62. Vacancies and redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
80
24
New vacancies (left scale)
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
Redundancy notices (right scale)
70
21
60
18
50
15
40
12
30
9
20
6
10
3
0
0
81
83
85
87
Note. Three-month moving average.
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Source: National Labour Market Board
Figure 63. Hiring plans and number of employed in
the business sector
Balance and annual percentage change
30
6
20
4
10
2
0
0
-10
-2
-20
-4
Hiring plans according to NIER’s quarterly business tendency survey (left scale)
Number of employed according to National Accounts (right scale)
-30
-6
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 64. Estimated HP gaps
Percentage deviation from HP trend
5
5
Hours worked
Employment
GDP
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 65. Capacity utilisation in industry.
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
95
95
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation in industry
NIER, current capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 66. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage
of labour
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
70
70
M anufacturing industry
Three service sectors
Construction sector
Retail trade
Private service sector
60
50
60
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 67. Employment rate
Proportion of the population aged 16-64 in the labour force
84
84
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
81
.
84
87
90
93
96
99
02
05
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 68. Wages in the construction, service and
manufacturing sectors
Annual percentage change
6
6
Industry
Construction sector
Service sectors
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00
01
02
Note. Three-month moving average.
03
04
05
06
07
Source: National Mediation Office
Figure 69. Unit labour costs for the economy as a
whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
8
Unit labour cost
Hourly labour cost
Productivity
7
8
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
94
96
98
00
02
Sources:
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
04
06
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 70. Profits in the business sector according
to the National Accounts
Percentage of value added
50
50
48
48
46
46
44
44
42
42
40
40
38
38
36
36
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 71. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’
and companies’ expectations of inflation one year
ahead
Annual percentage change
4
4
CPI
Households, Statistics Sweden
Households, National Institute of Economic Research
3
Companies, National Institute of Economic Research
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 72. Different agents’ expectations of
inflation two years ahead
Annual percentage change
4
Purchasing managers
Social partners
M oney market agents
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Prospera Research AB
Figure 73. The difference between nominal and
inflation-linked five-year rates (break-even
inflation)
Percentage points
4
4
Break-even inflation
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 74. UND1X excluding energy, broken down
into goods, services and food
Annual percentage change
6
6
Goods excluding food and energy (27% )
5
5
Services (45% )
Food (18% )
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. The figures in parentheses show the percentage share of UND1X.
06
07
Källa: SCB och Riksbanken
Figure 75. Price expectations and consumer food
prices
Balance and annual percentage change
80
8
Non-durables, price expectations (left scale)
Foods in UND1X (right scale)
60
6
40
4
20
2
0
0
-20
-2
-40
-4
-60
-6
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 76. Metal prices and consumer import
prices
Annual percentage change
30
90
Import prices on intermediate goods (left scale)
Import prices on consumer goods (left scale)
M etal prices (right scale)
25
75
20
60
15
45
10
30
5
15
0
0
-5
-15
-10
-30
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Sources: IMF and Statistics Sweden
Figure 77. CPI, UND1X and UND1X excluding
energy
Annual percentage change
4
4
UND1X excluding energy
CPI
UND1X
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
05
06
07
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 78.Different measures of underlying
inflation
Annual percentage change
4
4
UND1X
TRIM 85
UND1X excluding energy
UND24
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A1. Inflation, 12-month rate
Annual percentage change
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
dec-10
UND1X excluding energy
0.8
1.8 (1.7)
2.1 (2.1)
2.3 (2.2)
2.2
UND1X
1.2
1.5 (1.4)
2.2 (2.3)
2.1 (2.0)
2.0
CPI
1.6
2.8 (2.7)
2.8 (2.3)
2.3 (2.2)
2.2
Note. The assessment in the June Monetary Policy Report is stated in parentheses. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A2. Change in CPI compared to
change in UND1X
Annual percentage and percentage points
UND1X excluding energy
UND1X
Changes in mortgage interest expenditure
Changes in indirect taxes and subsidies
=CPI
2006
0.6
1.2
0.1
0.1
1.4
2007
1.4 (1.3)
1.1 (1.1)
0.8 (0.8)
0.1 (0.2)
2.1 (2.1)
2008
2.0 (1.9)
2.0 (2.0)
0.8 (0.6)
0.2 (-0.3)
2.9 (2.3)
2009
2.2 (2.2)
2.0 (2.1)
0.4 (0.3)
0.0 (0.0)
2.4 (2.3)
2010
2.2
2.0
0.3
0.0
2.2
Note. The assessment in the June Monetary Policy Report is stated in parentheses.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A3. Interest rates, exchange rates and
public finances
Per cent
Repo rate
10-year rate
Exchange rate, TCW index,
1992-11-19=100
General government net lending
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2.2
3.7
3.5 (3.5)
4.2 (4.2)
4.3 (4.2)
4.6 (4.6)
4.4 (4.4)
4.9 (4.9)
4.3
5.1
127.4
124.9 (124.8)
122.4 (123.0)
121.5 (122.0)
121.1
2.4
2.6 (2.1)
2.6 (1.9)
2.2 (1.6)
1.8
Note. The assessment in the June Monetary Policy Report is stated in parentheses. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A4. International conditions
Annual percentage change
GDP
USA
Japan
Euro area
OECD
World
CPI
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2.9
2.2
2.8
3.0
5.4
2.0 (2.0)
1.9 (2.2)
2.5 (2.7)
2.5 (2.6)
5.0 (4.8)
2.0 (2.9)
1.7 (1.9)
1.9 (2.3)
2.3 (2.8)
4.6 (4.7)
2.8 (3.1)
1.6 (1.6)
2.1 (2.1)
2.6 (2.7)
4.4 (4.5)
3.3
1.5
2.0
2.3
4.5
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
USA
Japan
3.2
0.2
2.8 (2.3)
-0.1 (0.2)
2.2 (2.5)
0.2 (0.5)
2.1 (2.5)
0.6 (0.6)
2.4
0.6
Euro area (HICP)
2.2
2.0 (2.0)
2.0 (1.9)
1.9 (1.9)
1.9
OECD
2.6
2.3 (2.2)
2.1 (2.2)
2.1 (2.1)
2.2
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Crude oil price, USD/ barrel, annual
average
Swedish export market growth
65
9.4
70 (67)
77 (72) 75 (71)
4.1 (6.9) 6.3 (6.7) 6.3 (6.1)
73.7
6.3
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Table A5. GDP and GDP by
expenditure
Annual percentage change
Private consumption
Public consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Inventory investments*
Export
Import
GDP
GDP, calendar-adjusted
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2.8
1.8
7.9
0.0
8.7
7.9
4.2
4.5
2.8 (3.2)
1.5 (1.4)
9.3 (9.4)
0.3 (0.4)
5.3 (5.3)
7.5 (8.3)
3.1 (3.1)
3.3 (3.3)
3.4 (4.0)
1.2 (1.2)
4.7 (5.0)
0.0 (-0.1)
5.9 (6.3)
7.0 (7.3)
2.8 (3.0)
2.7 (2.9)
3.1 (3.2)
0.8 (0.8)
2.5 (2.6)
0.1 (0.1)
5.4 (5.4)
6.2 (6.2)
2.3 (2.3)
2.3 (2.3)
3.2
1.0
2.5
0.1
5.9
6.3
2.6
2.4
* Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Note. The assessment in the June Monetary Policy Report is stated in parentheses. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A6. Output, employment and
unemployment
Annual percentage change
Population, aged 16-64
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Number of hours worked
Number of employed
Labour force
Open unemployment*
Unemployment, 15-74 year-olds (EU
definition)*
Labour market programmes*
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.0
4.5
2.0
1.8
1.2
5.4
7.0
0.9 (0.7)
3.3 (3.3)
3.2 (2.3)
2.6 (2.3)
1.8 (1.6)
4.6 (4.7)
6.1
0.6 (0.4)
2.7 (2.9)
1.2 (0.8)
1.5 (1.0)
1.1 (0.8)
4.3 (4.5)
5.8
0.3 (0.2)
2.3 (2.3)
0.2 (0.2)
0.2 (0.2)
0.2 (0.1)
4.2 (4.3)
5.7
0.1
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
5.8
3.0
2.0 (2.0)
1.9 (2.0)
1.9 (1.9)
1.9
* Per cent of labour force
Sources: National Labour Market Board, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A7. Wages, productivity and unit
labour costs for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Hourly wage, NM O
Hourly wage, NA
Employer contributions
Hourly labour costs, NA
3.1
3.4
-0.9
2.5
3.9 (3.9)
4.3 (4.5)
0.6 (0.6)
4.9 (5.2)
4.5 (4.5)
4.7 (4.7)
-0.1 (-0.3)
4.6 (4.4)
4.2 (4.2)
4.5 (4.5)
-0.2 (-0.2)
4.3 (4.3)
3.8
4.1
0.1
4.2
Productivity
2.4
0.1 (1.0)
1.5 (2.1)
2.1 (2.1)
2.3
Unit labour cost
0.1
4.8 (4.2)
3.1 (2.3)
2.2 (2.1)
1.8
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A8. Repo rate
Per cent, annual average
The main scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
2.2
2.2
2.2
2007
3.5
3.4
3.5
2008
4.3
3.7
4.8
2009
4.4
3.8
5.0
2010
4.3
3.8
5.0
The Riksbank
Table A9. UND1X
Annual percentage change
The main scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
1.2
1.2
1.2
2007
1.1
1.1
1.1
2008
2.0
2.3
1.7
2009
2.0
2.7
1.4
2010
2.0
2.8
1.2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A10. GDP
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted
The main scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
4.5
4.5
4.5
2007
3.3
3.3
3.3
2008
2.7
3.0
2.4
2009
2.3
2.6
1.9
2010
2.4
2.5
2.1
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A11. Hours worked
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted
The main scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
2.0
2.0
2.0
2007
3.2
3.2
3.2
2008
1.2
1.5
0.9
2009
0.2
0.6
-0.2
2010
0.0
0.2
-0.2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A12. Open unemployment
Per cent of labour force, seasonally adjusted
The main scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
5.4
5.4
5.4
2007
4.6
4.6
4.6
2008
4.3
4.1
4.4
2009
4.2
3.9
4.6
2010
4.3
3.9
4.7
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A13. Scenario with higher cost
pressures
Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified
2007
2008
2009
2010
GDP
UND1X
Repo rate*
Hourly wage, NA
Labour Productivity
3.2 (3.3)
1.2 (1.1)
3.5 (3.5)
4.5 (4.3)
-0.2 (0.1)
1.9 (2.7)
2.5 (2.0)
4.5 (4.3)
5.5 (4.7)
1.2 (1.5)
1.7 (2.3)
2.2 (2.0)
5.1 (4.4)
4.4 (4.5)
2.1 (2.1)
2.2 (2.4)
1.9 (2.0)
5.0 (4.3)
3.8 (4.1)
2.4 (2.3)
Number of hours worked
3.4 (3.2)
0.7 (1.2)
-0.4 (0.2)
-0.2 (0.0)
* Per cent, annual average
Note. The assesment in the main scenario is stated in parentheses.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A14. Scenario with higher
weaker international demand
Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified
GDP
2007
3.3 (3.3)
2008
2.4 (2.7)
2009
2.0 (2.3)
2010
2.3 (2.4)
UND1X
Repo rate*
1.1 (1.1)
3.4 (3.5)
1.9 (2.0)
3.7 (4.3)
2.0 (2.0)
3.9 (4.4)
2.0 (2.0)
4.1 (4.3)
TCW-weighted GDP
TCW-weighted CPI
TCW-weighted short-term rates*
2.6 (2.7)
1.9 (1.9)
4.2 (4.2)
1.3 (2.1)
1.8 (1.9)
3.7 (4.2)
2.2 (2.2)
1.6 (1.8)
3.3 (4.1)
2.5 (2.3)
1.7 (1.9)
3.5 (4.0)
* Per cent, annual average
Note. The assesment in the main scenario is stated in parentheses.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B1. Stock market movements in the United
States, the euro area and Sweden 1987-2007
Logarithmic scale, level
10000
10000
S&P 500
OM X 30
DAX 30
1000
1000
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
100
1987
100
Sources: Bloomberg and Reuters Ecowin
Figure B2. The corporate bond rate in the United
States
Per cent
16
16
Aaa
Baa
High Yield
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Figure B3. TED spreads in the United States, the
euro area and Sweden
Basis points, monthly average
220
220
Euro area (Germany)
Sweden
USA
180
180
140
140
100
100
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
-20
1991
-20
1990
20
1989
20
1988
60
1987
60
Sources: Bloomberg and Reuters Ecowin
Figure B4. GDP in the euro area, Sweden and USA
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
7
5
USA
Euro area
Sweden
7
5
3
3
1
1
-1
-1
-3
-3
-5
-5
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Sources: Bureau of Economic analysis, Eurostat and Statistics Sweden
Figure B5. Inflation and inflation expectations
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
CPI
Expected inflation
Trend
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure B6. The correlation between inflation
expectations and inflation one year later, 1993-2007
Actual inflation (t)
Annual percentage change
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Expected inflation (t-12)
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure B7. A comparison of inflation forecasts by
the Riksbank and by households
Annual percentage change
4
CPI
The Riksbank
Expected inflation
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure B8. The Riksbank’s and households’
inflation forecasts
Annual percentage change
4
4
CPI
M PR 07:3
M PR 07:2
Expected inflation
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the