Download Monetary Policy Report 2008:1, slides

MPR 2008:1
080213
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Per cent, quarterly averages
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Repo rate
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
M ar-03
M ar-04
M ar-05
M ar-06
M ar-07
M ar-08
M ar-09
M ar-10
M ar-11
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
6
5
6
90%
75%
50%
GDP
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
M ar-03
M ar-04
M ar-05
M ar-06
M ar-07
M ar-08
M ar-09
M ar-10
M ar-11
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
5
5
90%
75%
50%
CPI
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
M ar-03
M ar-04
M ar-05
M ar-06
M ar-07
M ar-08
M ar-09
M ar-10
M ar-11
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. CPIX with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
5
5
90%
75%
50%
CPIX
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
M ar-03
M ar-04
M ar-05
M ar-06
M ar-07
M ar-08
M ar-09
M ar-10
M ar-11
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 5. Fluctuations in government bond rates
Per cent
0.14
0.14
Euro area (Germany)
Sweden
0.12
0.12
USA
0.10
0.10
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
2003
2004
2005
2006
Note: Calculated as 30-day rolling standard deviation for 2-year rates.
2007
2008
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 6. GDP in the USA and the Euro area
Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
8
8
USA
7
7
Euro area
6
6
5
5
4
4
P
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Figure 7. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP
growth in the United States in 2008 at different points in time
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
The Riksbank
3.5
3.5
Consensus
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Jan
2007
Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Feb
2008
Sources: Consensus Economics Inc. and The Riksbank
Figure 8. GDP in Sweden and the world
Annual percentage change
6
6
Sweden
The world
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 9. Total Swedish exports and export market
index for goods
Annual percentage change
20
20
Swedish export
Export market index for goods
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
81
86
91
96
01
06
11
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 10. Real exchange rate and current account
TCW index, 18 November 1992 = 100 and percentage of GDP
150
9
Real exchange rate SEK/ TCW (left scale)
Current account (right scale)
140
7
130
5
120
3
110
1
100
-1
90
-3
80
-5
70
75
80
85
90
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
95
00
05
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 11. TCW exchange rate
Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
140
140
Outcome
M PR 2007:3
M PR 2008:1
138
138
136
136
134
134
132
132
130
130
128
128
126
126
124
124
122
122
120
120
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
07
08
09
10
11
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 12. GDP
Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
7
7
M PR 2008:1
M PR 2007:3
Forecast, M PU December 2007
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
08
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 13. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption
and saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable
income
7
14
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable income (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
6
12
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 14. Labour force and number employed
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
5000
5000
Labour force 16-64 year olds
Labour foce (EU-definition)
Number employed
Number employed (EU-definition)
4800
4800
4600
4600
4400
4400
4200
4200
4000
4000
3800
3800
80
85
90
95
00
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
05
10
15
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 15. Percentage of open unemployed 16-64 years-old
and percentage of unemployed 15-74 years according to the
new EU ordinance
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
12
12
Open unemployment, 16-64 year-olds
Unemployment, 15-74 year-olds (EU definition)
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
85
90
95
00
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
05
10
15
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 16. Actual an trend labour productivity for
the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5
5
M PR 2007:3
4
4
M PR 2008:1
HP-trend
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 17. Unit labour costs for the economy as a
whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
8
8
Unit labour costs
Hourly labour cost
Productivity
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 18. CPI and CPIX
Annual percentage change
4
4
CPI
CPIX
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
08
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 19. Oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel
100
100
Oil price, outcome
90
Forwards, average up to 15 October 2007
90
80
Forwards, average up to 7 December 2007
80
Forwards, average up to 30 January 2008
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 20. CPIX excluding energy
Annual percentage change
4
4
M PR 2008:1
M PR 2007:3
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
08
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 21. Repo rate forecasts on different
occasions
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
M PR 2007:3
M PU December 2007
M PR 2008:1
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
08
09
10
11
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 22. CPIX forecasts on different occasions
Annual percentage change
4
4
M PR 2008:1
M PU December 2007
M PR 2007:3
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
08
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 23. Employment forecasts on different
occasions
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
4700
4700
Employed (EU-definition)
M PR 2008:1
4600
4600
M PU December 2007
M PR 2007:3
Employed 16-64 year-olds
4500
4500
4400
4400
4300
4300
4200
4200
4100
4100
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
08
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 1. Inflation, annual average
Annual percentage change
CPI
CPIX
KPIX excl. energy
2006
1.4
1.2
0.6
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update
In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.
2007
2.2 (2.2)
1.2 (1.2)
1.5 (1.4)
2008
3.4 (3.6)
2.5 (2.7)
2.2 (2.3)
2009
2.5 (2.4)
2.2 (2.1)
2.2 (2.2)
2010
2.3 (2.2)
2.1 (2.0)
2.2 (2.2)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month rate
Annual percentage change
M ar-07
M ar-08
M ar-09
M ar-10
M ar-11
CPI
1.9
3.4 (3.6)
2.6 (2.6)
2.4 (2.3)
2.2
CPIX
1.2
2.3 (2.6)
2.2 (2.2)
2.1 (2.0)
2.0
CPIX excl. energy
1.2
2.2 (2.2)
2.2 (2.2)
2.3 (2.3)
2.2
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update
In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 3. Key figures
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
GDP, the world*
Crude oil price, Brent USD/ barrel,
annual average
Exchagnge rate, TCW index
annual average
Repo rate, per cent annual average
General government net lending,
percentage of GDP
GDP, calender adjusted
Numbers employed (EU-defintion)
Unemployment (EU-definition)*
Hourly wage in economy as a whole
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
4.9
4.8 (5.0)
4.1 (4.5)
4.2 (4.4)
4.3 (4.4)
65
73 (73)
89 (89)
87 (86)
86 (85)
127.4
2.2
125.2 (125.2)
3.5 (3.5)
123.5 (122.5)
4.3 (4.2)
123.0 (121.5)
4.3 (4.3)
122.9 (121.1)
4.3 (4.3)
2.2
4.1
1.9
7.0
3.1
3.1 (2.7)
2.5 (2.6)
2.5 (2.5)
6.1 (6.1)
3.6 (3.8)
2.3 (2.6)
2.4 (2.4)
1.1 (1.4)
5.9 (5.9)
4.2 (4.4)
1.7 (2.2)
2.0 (2.1)
0.2 (0.2)
5.9 (5.8)
4.0 (4.1)
1.6 (1.8)
2.8 (2.8)
0.1 (0.1)
5.8 (5.8)
3.8 (3.8)
*New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too.
These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007.
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update
In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 4. Repo rate forecast
Per cent, quarterly average
Repo rate
Q 1 2008
Q 2 2008
Q 3 2008
Q 4 2008
Q 1 2009
Q 1 2010
Q 1 2011
4.1 (4.1)
4.3 (4.2)
4.3 (4.3)
4.3 (4.3)
4.4 (4.4)
4.3 (4.3)
4.3
Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update
In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 24. Repo rate assumptions
Per cent, quarterly averages
6
6
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
08
09
10
11
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 25. CPIX
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 26. GDP
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5.0
5.0
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
4.5
4.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 27. Output gaps (GDP)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
3
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
2
3
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 28. Labour market gaps
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
3
3
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2
2
M ain scenario
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 29. Number of hours worked
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
4.0
4.0
Lower interest rate
3.5
Higher interest rate
M ain Scenario
3.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 30. Employment rate
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
78
78
77
77
76
76
75
75
74
74
73
73
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
72
72
Higher interest rate
71
71
70
70
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 31. Open unemployment according to the
ILO definition
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
11
11
Lower interest rate
10
Higher interest rate
10
M ain scenario
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 32. GDP, scenario wiith greater financial
turmoil
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5.0
5.0
Greater financial turmoil
4.5
4.5
M ain scenario
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 33. CPIX, scenario with greater financial
turmoil
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
3.0
3.0
Greater financial turmoil
M ain scenario
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 34. Repo rate, scenario with greater
financial turmoil
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
Greater financial turmoil
4.5
4.5
M ain scenario
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
08
09
10
11
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 35. GDP, scenario with higher international
inflation
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5.0
5.0
Higher international inflation
4.5
M ain scenario
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 36. CPIX, scenario with higher international
inflation
Per cent, quarterly averages
3.0
3.0
Higher international inflation
M ain scenario
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 37. Repo rate, scenario with higher
international inflation
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
Higher international inflation
4.5
4.5
M ain scenario
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 38. Oil price, scenario with higher oil price
USD/barrel
130
130
M ain scenario
120
120
Higher oil price
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
09
10
11
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 39. The difference between interbank rates
and government bond rates
Basis points
250
200
250
Euro area (Germany)
Sweden
USA
UK
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Jan-07
M ar-07
M ay-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
M ar-08
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 40. Interbank rates in Sweden
Per cent
5.0
4.8
5.0
STIBOR T/ N
Repo rate
STIBOR, 1 month
STIBOR, 3 months
4.8
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
Aug 07
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
Jan 08
Note. STIBOR T/N refers to overnight right from tomorrow until the day after.
Feb 08
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 41. Spread between interbank rates and
expected monetary policy
Basis points
120
120
Euro area
USA
100
100
UK
Sweden
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
Jan-07
M ar-07
M ay-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
M ar-08
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 42. Interest rates in Sweden
Per cent
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
Interbank rate
2
2
Repo rate
1
1
M ortgages
0
jan/ 07
0
mar/ 07
maj/ 07
jul/ 07
sep/ 07
nov/ 07
jan/ 08
mar/ 08
Source: SBAB and the Riksbank
Figure 43. GDP
Annual percentage change
6
6
USA
OECD
Euro area
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Eurostat, OECD and the US Department of Commerce
Figure 44. Employment and private consumption in
the United States
Annual percentage change
6
6
Private consumption
5
5
Employment
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce
Figure 45. Confidence indicators in the euro area.
Balance, deviations from averages 1995-2007
30
30
M anufacturing industry
Construction sector
Service sectors
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: European Commission
Figure 46. Confidence indicators for households
and for manufacturing companies in the United
Kingdom
Balance, deviations from averages 1990-2007
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
M anufacturing industry
-30
-30
Consumers
-40
-40
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
Note. Broken lines are averages of the respective curves from 1990.
04
06
08
10
Source: European Commission
Figure 47. HICP in the euro area
Annual percentage change
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
Excluding energy, foods, alcohol, tobacco
Total
0.5
0.5
Excluding energy
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Eurostat
Figure 48. Monetary policy expectations in the
Euro area and the United States
Per cent
6.0
6.0
Refi
Refi , 31 January 2008
Refi , 18 December 2007
Fed funds
Fed funds, 31 January 2008
Fed funds, 18 December 2007
5.5
5.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Source: The Riksbank
Diagram 49 Monetary policy expectations in
Sweden
Per cent
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
Repo rate
2.5
Based on bank securities(STINA &FRA) 18
December 2007
Based on bank securities(STINA &FRA)31 January
2008
Survey average (Prospera), 5 December 2007
2.0
1.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
Survey average (Prospera), 16 January 2008
1.0
1.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
Figure 50. Long-term interest rates
Per cent
5.5
5.5
Germany
USA
5.0
5.0
Sweden
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
jan/ 04
jul/ 04
jan/ 05
jul/ 05
jan/ 06
jul/ 06
jan/ 07
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
jul/ 07
jan/ 08
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 51. Exchange rate movements
SEK/EUR and SEK/USD
10.0
10.0
SEK/ EUR
SEK/ USD
9.5
9.5
9.0
9.0
8.5
8.5
8.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
jan/ 06
jul/ 06
jan/ 07
jul/ 07
jan/ 08
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 52. TCW exchange rate
Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
138
138
Outcome for the fourth quarter 2007 and forecast for the first quarter 2008 in M PR 2008:1
136
136
Forecast for the fourth quarter 2007 and the first quarter 2008 in M PR 2007:3
134
134
132
132
130
130
128
128
126
126
124
124
122
122
120
jan-04
120
jul-04
jan-05
jul-05
jan-06
jul-06
jan-07
jul-07
jan-08
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 53. Stock market movements
Index, 1 January 1999 = 100
220
220
OM X 30, Sweden
S&P 500, USA
DAX 30, Germany
200
200
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Reuters Ecowin
Figure 54. The money supply
Annual percentage change
24
24
M0
M2
M3
20
20
16
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 55. House prices and total lending to
Swedish households
Annual percentage change
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
Lending to households
Property prices
2
0
2
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 56. GDP
Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
7
7
M PR 2008:1
6
6
M PR 2007:3
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 57. Confidence indicators for major
industries
Seasonally adjusted balance
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
M anufacturing industry
-60
-60
Retail trade
Private service industries
-80
-40
-80
Construction
-100
-100
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 58. Gross fixed capital formation
Annual percentage change
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
Housing
Business sector excluding housing
-30
-30
Public authorities
-40
-40
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank
Figure 59. Foreign trade with goods at fixed prices
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
15
15
Import
Export
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
00
01
02
Note. Three month moving average
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank
Figure 60. Retail sales and household consumption
Annual percentage change
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Total household consumption
Household consumption of retail goods
Retail sales
-2
-4
-2
-4
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 61. Household expectations of the future
Balance
80
80
Confidence indicator
60
60
Unemployment
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
-80
-80
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 62. New and unfilled vacant jobs and
redundancy notices.
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
80
24
Redundancy notices (right scale)
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
New vacancies (left scales)
70
21
60
18
50
15
40
12
30
9
20
6
10
3
0
0
81
83
85
87
89
Note. Three month moving average.
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Source: Swedish Public Employment Service
Figure 63. Vacancies and redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
60
60
Redundancy notices
Vacancies
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 64. Hiring plans and number of employed in
the business sector
Balance and annual percentage change
30
Hiring plans according to NIER’s quarterly business
tendency survey (left scale)
Number of employed according to National
Accounts (right scale)
20
6
4
10
2
0
0
-10
-2
-20
-4
-30
-6
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 65. Labour productivity for the economy as
a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5
5
M PR 2007:3
M PR 2008:1
4
4
HP-trend
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 66. Estimated HP gaps
Percentage deviation from HP trend
5
5
Hours worked
Employment
GDP
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 67. Capacity utilisation in industry
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
95
95
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation in industry
NIER, current capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 68. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage
of labour
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
80
80
M anufacturing industry
Construction sector
Business sector
Retail trade
Private service sector
70
60
70
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 69. Employment rate
Proportion of the population aged 16-64 in the labour force
84
84
Employment rate 16-64 year-olds
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
82
85
88
91
94
97
Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
Sources:
00
03
06
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 70. Wages in the construction, service and
manufacturing sectors
Annual percentage change
6
6
Industry
Construction sector
Service sectors
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00
01
02
Note. Three month moving average.
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: National Mediation Office
Figure 71. Unit labour costs for the economy as a
whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
8
Unit labour cost
Hourly labour cost
Productivity
7
8
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 72. Wage share
Labour costs' share of the added value
0.70
0.70
Wage share
0.65
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.50
80
82
84
86
Note. Four-quarter moving average.
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 73. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’
and companies’ expectations of inflation one year
ahead
Annual percentage change
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
CPI
Households, Statistics Sweden
Households, National Institute of Economic Research
Companies, National Institute of Economic Research
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
0
-1
09
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 74. Different agents’ expectations of
inflation two years ahead
Annual percentage change
4
4
Purchasing managers
Social partners
M oney market agents
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Prospera Research AB
Figure 75. The difference between nominal and
inflation-linked five-year rates (break-even
inflation)
Percentage points
5.0
Break-even inflation
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 76. CPI, CPIX and CPIX excluding energy
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
CPIX excluding energy
CPIX
CPI
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 77. CPIX excluding energy, broken down
into goods, services and food
Annual percentage change
6
6
Goods excluding food and energy (27% )
5
5
Services (45% )
Food (18% )
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 78. Producer prices
Annual percentage change
15
15
Price index for domestic assets, consumption goods
13
13
Price index for domestic assets, intermediate goods
11
11
9
9
7
7
5
5
3
3
1
1
-1
-1
-3
-3
-5
-5
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 79. Commodity prices
UDS, annual percentage change
100
100
Food
Other agricultural products
M etals
Total
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: The Economist
Figure 80. Different measures of underlying
inflation
Annual percentage change
4
4
CPIX
TRIM 85
CPIX excluding energy
UND24
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden The Riksbank
Table 5. Indicators for GDP in the short term
Indicator
M ost recent outcome
Tendency
Exports of goods
Imports of goods
Retail trade
Industrial production
NIER´s Research’s Business
Tendency Survey
Consumer Tendency survey
Purchasing M anagers Index
Dec-07
Dec-07
Dec-07
Nov-07
+/ -
Jan-08
Jan-08
Jan-08
+/ +/ -
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure B1. Energy prices in the CPI adjusted for the
effects of changes in indirect taxes
Annual percentage change
30
30
Oil products
Electricity
Energy, total
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B2. CPIX inflation and direct and indirect effects of
changes in energy prices during the period 2002-2007
Annual percentage change and percentage points
3.5
3.5
Direct effects
Indirect effects
CPIX
3.0
2.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B3. The Economists commodity price index
for food
USD, annual percentage change
50
50
Food
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Source: The Economist
Figure B4. Consumer and producer food prices
Annual percentage change
9
9
Food in CPIX
Food in ITPI
7
7
5
5
3
3
1
1
-1
-1
-3
-3
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B5. Food price in the CPI in some countries
Annual percentage change
20
20
USA
United Kingdom
Euro area
China
Sweden
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
00
02
04
06
Sources: The respective countries’ statistical agencies
Table A1. Inflation, 12-month rate
Annual percentage change
M ar -07
M ar -08
M ar -09
M ar -10
M ar -11
CPI
1.9
3.4 (2.8)
2.6 (2.5)
2.4 (2.3)
2.2
CPIX
1.2
2.3 (1.8)
2.2 (2.1)
2.1 (2.0)
2.0
CPIX excl. energy
1.2
2.2 (1.9)
2.2 (2.1)
2.3 (2.2)
2.2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A2. Change in CPI compared to change in
CPIX
Annual percentage change and percentage points
CPIX excl. energy
CPIX
Changes in mortgage interest expenditure*
Changes in indirect taxes and subsidies*
CPI
2006
0.6
1.2
0.1
0.1
1.4
2007
1.5 (1.4)
1.2 (1.1)
0.9 (0.8)
0.1 (0.1)
2.2 (2.1)
2008
2.2 (2.0)
2.5 (2.0)
0.8 (0.8)
0.1 (0.2)
3.4 (2.9)
2009
2.2 (2.2)
2.2 (2.0)
0.4 (0.4)
0.0 (0.0)
2.5 (2.4)
2010
2.2 (2.2)
2.1 (2.0)
0.3 (0.3)
0.0 (0.0)
2.3 (2.2)
* Contribution to CPI-inflation, per cent
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A3. Interest rates, exchange rates and
public finances
Per cent, annual average
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Repo rate
2.2
3.5 (3.5)
4.3 (4.3)
4.3 (4.4)
4.3 (4.3)
10-year rate
3.7
4.2 (4.2)
4.5 (4.6)
4.8 (4.9)
5.0 (5.1)
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-19=100
127.4 125.2 (124.9) 124.1 (122.4) 123.1 (121.5) 122.9 (121.1)
General government net lending 2.2
3.1 (2.6)
2.3 (2.6)
1.7 (2.2)
1.6 (1.8)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A4. International conditions
Annual percentage change
GDP
USA
Japan
Euro area
OECD
TCW-Weighted
World*
CPI
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2.9
2.2
2.8
3.0
3.1
4.9
2.2 (2.0)
1.9 (1.9)
2.7 (2.5)
2.7 (2.5)
2.8 (2.7)
4.8 (4.8)
1.7 (2.0)
1.5 (1.7)
1.7 (1.9)
2.1 (2.3)
1.9 (2.1)
4.1 (4.5)
2.5 (2.8)
1.6 (1.6)
2.0 (2.1)
2.5 (2.6)
2.1 (2.2)
4.2 (4.3)
3.0 (3.3)
1.5 (1.5)
2.1 (2.0)
2.7 (2.7)
2.3 (2.3)
4.3 (4.4)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
USA
Japan
3.2
0.2
2.9 (2.8)
-0.1 (-0.1)
2.6 (2.2)
0.2 (0.2)
1.8 (2.1)
0.4 (0.6)
2.2 (2.4)
0.5 (0.6)
Euro area (HICP)
2.2
2.1 (2.0)
2.5 (2.0)
2.1 (1.9)
1.9 (1.9)
OECD
2.6
2.4 (2.3)
2.4 (2.1)
2.0 (2.1)
2.1 (2.2)
TCW-Weighted
2.1
2.0 (1.9)
2.3 (1.9)
1.9 (1.8)
1.9 (1.9)
2006
Crude oil price, USD/ barrel, annual
average
Swedish export market growth
65
9.4
2007
2008
2009
2010
73 (70)
89 (77) 87 (75) 86 (74)
4.3 (4.1) 5.8 (6.3) 6.2 (6.3) 6.4 (6.3)
*New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too.
These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007.
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A5. GDP and GDP by expenditure
Annual percentage change
Private consumption
Public consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Inventory investments*
Export
Import
GDP
GDP, calendar-adjusted
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2.5
1.5
7.7
0.2
8.9
8.2
4.1
4.4
3.1 (2.8)
0.3 (1.5)
8.0 (9.3)
0.9 (0.3)
5.0 (5.3)
9.0 (7.5)
2.5 (3.1)
2.8 (3.3)
2.7 (3.4)
1.0 (1.2)
4.4 (4.7)
-0.1 (0.0)
5.5 (5.9)
6.2 (7.0)
2.4 (2.8)
2.1 (2.7)
2.9 (3.1)
0.4 (0.8)
1.9 (2.5)
0.0 (0.1)
4.8 (5.4)
5.1 (6.2)
2.0 (2.3)
2.2 (2.3)
3.2 (3.2)
1.1 (1.0)
2.4 (2.5)
0.1 (0.1)
5.9 (5.9)
5.9 (6.3)
2.8 (2.6)
2.5 (2.4)
* Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A6. Output, employment and
unemployment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise else indicated
Population, aged 16-64
GDP, Calendar-adjusted
Number of hours worked
Number of employed (EU definition)
Labour force (EU definition)
Unemployment (EU definition)*
Labour market programmes*
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1,0
4,4
2,0
1,9
0,9 (0,9)
2,8 (3,3)
3,2 (3,2)
2,5 (2,7)
1,5 (1,7)
6,1 (6,1)
1,8 (1,9)
0,4 (0,6)
2,1 (2,7)
1,0 (1,2)
1,1 (1,5)
0,8 (1,1)
5,9 (5,8)
1,8 (1,8)
0,5 (0,3)
2,2 (2,3)
0,1 (0,2)
0,2 (0,2)
0,1 (0,1)
5,9 (5,7)
1,9 (1,9)
0,1 (0,1)
2,5 (2,4)
0,1 (0,0)
0,1 (0,0)
0,1 (0,0)
5,8 (5,8)
1,8 (1,8)
1,1
7,0
2,9
* Percentage of the labour force
Sources: National Labour market Board, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A7. Wages, productivity and labour costs
for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Hourly wage, NM O
Hourly wage, NA
Employer contributions
Hourly labour costs, NA
3.1
3.4
-0.2
3.2
3.6 (3.9)
3.8 (4.3)
-0.1 (0.6)
3.8 (4.9)
4.2 (4.5)
4.5 (4.7)
0.0 (-0.1)
4.5 (4.6)
4.0 (4.2)
4.3 (4.5)
0.0 (-0.2)
4.3 (4.3)
3.8 (3.8)
4.1 (4.1)
0.1 (0.1)
4.1 (4.2)
Productivity
2.4
-0.4 (0.1)
1.1 (1.5)
2.1 (2.1)
2.4 (2.3)
Unit labour cost
0.8
4.2 (4.8)
3.3 (3.1)
2.2 (2.2)
1.6 (1.8)
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A8. Repo rate
Per cent, annual average
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2.2
2.2
2.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
4.3
3.7
4.8
4.3
3.3
5.4
4.3
3.6
5.0
Source: The Riksbank
Table A9. CPIX
Annual percentage change
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
2.5
2.7
2.3
2.2
3.2
1.2
2.1
3.3
0.9
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A10. GDP
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
4.4
4.4
4.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.1
2.4
1.9
2.2
2.9
1.5
2.5
2.8
2.3
Source: The Riksbank
Table A11. Hours worked
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2.0
2.0
2.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
1.0
1.2
0.7
0.1
0.9
-0.7
0.1
0.3
-0.1
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A12. Percentage of unemployed 16-64 yearolds, according to ILO definition
Per cent of labour force, calendar-adjusted data
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
7.0
7.0
7.0
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.0
5.8
6.2
5.9
5.2
6.7
5.9
5.1
6.8
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A13. Scenario with greater financial turmoil
Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified
GDP
CPIX
Repo rate*
TCW-weighted GDP
TCW- weighted CPI
TCW- weighted short-term rates*
2007
2008
2009
2010
2.8 (2.8)
1.2 (1.2)
3.5 (3.5)
2.8 (2.8)
2.0 (2.0)
4.3 (4.3)
2.0 (2.1)
2.4 (2.5)
4.1 (4.3)
1.9 (1.9)
2.3 (2.3)
3.7 (3.8)
2.1 (2.2)
1.9 (2.2)
3.7 (4.3)
1.7 (2.1)
1.6 (1.9)
2.8 (3.5)
2.3 (2.5)
1.5 (2.1)
3.2 (4.3)
1.6 (2.3)
1.1 (1.9)
2.9 (4.1)
* Per cent, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A14. Scenario with higher international
inflation
Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified
GDP
CPIX
Repo rate*
TCW-weighted GDP
TCW- weighted CPI
TCW- weighted short-term rates*
2007
2.8 (2.8)
2008
2.1 (2.1)
2009
2.2 (2.2)
2010
2.5 (2.5)
1.2 (1.2)
3.5 (3.5)
2.8 (2.8)
2.0 (2.0)
4.3 (4.3)
2.6 (2.5)
4.6 (4.3)
1.9 (1.9)
2.9 (2.3)
4.1 (3.8)
2.4 (2.2)
4.7 (4.3)
2.1 (2.1)
2.7 (1.9)
4.1 (3.5)
2.1 (2.1)
4.5 (4.3)
2.2 (2.3)
2.4 (1.9)
4.7 (4.1)
* Per cent, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A15. Scenario with higher oil price
Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified
2007
2008
2009
2010
Crude oil price, USD/ barrel
GDP
73 (73)
2.8 (2.8)
117 (89)
2.1 (2.1)
122 (87)
1.8 (2.2)
119 (86)
2.2 (2.5)
CPIX
Repo rate*
TCW-weighted GDP
1.2 (1.2)
3.5 (3.5)
2.8 (2.8)
2.0 (2.0)
4.3 (4.3)
2.7 (2.5)
4.8 (4.3)
1.9 (1.9)
2.6 (2.3)
4.2 (3.8)
2.8 (2.2)
5.0 (4.3)
2.0 (2.1)
2.2 (1.9)
3.9 (3.5)
2.3 (2.1)
4.7 (4.3)
2.1 (2.3)
1.9 (1.9)
4.4 (4.1)
TCW- weighted CPI
TCW- weighted short-term rates*
* Per cent, annual average
Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank