Download Minister of Finances Presentation from the Caesarea Forum, June

The Economy in Israel
Ministry of Finance
June 2012
LOGO
Outline of the Deficit
2013-2020
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Budget Deficit
Israel and selected countries, 2011-2012
10.0%
9.0%
2011
8.0%
2012
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
‫ב‬United
"‫ארה‬
‫בריטניה‬
United
States
Kingdom
Source: IMF, Ministry of Finance.
‫יוון‬
Greece
‫ספרד‬
Spain
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‫צרפת‬
France
‫ישראל‬
Israel
Germany
‫גרמניה‬
Simulated Outline of Debt-to-Product Ratio
Based on the Deficit and Expenditure Outline
New outline – 3.5% average growth
New outline – 4.0% average growth
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Year 2011 - Summary
Growth
Unemployment
4.8%
(based on the new index*)
Income from taxes
Deficit
Debt
*
(NIS billions)
(percentage of product)
7.0%
211.3
3.3%
74.2%
(percentage of product)
The recent amendment of the method of the workforce survey by the Central Bureau of
Statistics resulted in an upward adjustment of unemployment rates.
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Projection for 2012
Growth
Income from taxes
Deficit
Debt
3.2%
(NIS billions)
(percentage of product)
221
3.4%
73.8%
(percentage of product)
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Product Growth
2008-2011
6%
4.8%
4.8%
4.0%
4%
2%
0.8%
0%
2008
2009
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
2010
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2011
Product Growth – Global Comparison
2011-2012
Source: OECD, Central Bureau of Statistics.
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Increase in Real Investments
2008-2012
Between the years 2010-2011, the volume of investments grew by some 33%.
Source: OECD, Central Bureau of Statistics.
* The projection for 2012 is based on OECD data.
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Increase in Real Investments, Global Comparison
2011
Source: OECD, Central Bureau of Statistics.
China – based on IMF data.
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Unemployment and Rate of Participation
The high growth rates recorded in the economy and the reduction in
transfer payments since 2003 increased the rate of participation
Right axis
Rate of participation
Left axis
Unemployment rate
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Unemployment Rate
2008-2012
United States
Eurozone (12 countries)
Israel
The data for 2012 are the existing available data, and in Israel are based on the new index.
Source: BLS, CBS, EUROSTAT.
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Creation of Jobs in Israel
Increase in the Number of the Employed and of Available
Jobs, in Thousands
50
46.4
40
30
24.8
21.5
18.4
16.4
15.0
17.5
20
12.3
10
0
-10
7.2
5.3
4.4 5.7
8.7 8.1
6.1
19.8
15.4
8.4
4.1
-0.1
20.4
17.2
7.5
9.2
13.8
6.3 6.5
3.0
12.8
0.4
0.3
-0.5
-4.8
-20
-4.8
-18.5
-30
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S&P Credit Rating
Israel and Western Europe, 2010-2012
Country
Current rating
Change in rating
Austria
+AA
Italy
+BBB
Ireland
+BBB
Belgium
AA
United Kingdom
AAA
=
Germany
AAA
=
The Netherlands
AAA
=
Greece
CC
12X
Israel
+A
Spain
+BBB
Portugal
BB
France
+AA
Sweden
AAA
4X
5X
=
* An arrow represents the rise or decline of the rating by one level.
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Real Rate of Product Growth
1970-2011
6.0%
5.8%
5.3%
5.0%
4.3%
4.0%
3.7%
3.5%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
* Includes an updated projection for 2012 at the rate of 3.2%.
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Real Rate of Product Growth
2002-2012
6.0%
5.6% 5.5%
4.8% 4.9%
5.0%
4.8% 4.8%
4.0%
4.0%
Average
growth
3.2%
3.6%
3.0%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-0.6%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 *2012
* Updated projection.
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Share of the Workforce* in the Population
2009-2029
63.0%
62.8%
62.0%
61.7%
61.0%
60.8%
60.3%
60.3%
2024
2029
60.0%
59.0%
2009
2014
2019
* Population of ages 15-65.
Source: Demographic projections of CBS, analyses by Economics and Research Division.
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