Download On the Accounts Chamber

Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation
Experience of KNI use in the
activity of the Accounts Chamber
of the Russian Federation
A.A. Piskunov
Assessment of the effectiveness of the national resources
use, based on KNI - the strategic objective of the external
control
Security
Council of
the Russian
Federation
Financial Resources
Presidential
Control
Directorate
National Resources
Accounts Chamber
of the
Russian Federation
State economic
agents
A
U
D
I
T
Non-material Resources
Fixed capital assets + goods
Subsoil + land
External Control System
2
Areas of activities of the Accounts Chamber on the
development and use of KNI for the purposes of the external
control
Evaluation
and development of KNI
The Federal Law
"On the Accounts
Chamber "
Security Council
The Law
«On the strategic
planning»
Government of the Russian
Federation
The Ministry of Economic
Development
RF Presidential Edict
“Open Government"
The Working Group on performance
indicators of the system “Open
Government”
The Accounts
Chamber of the
Russian
Federation
Russian Academy of
Sciences
Institute for social and political
research
The Expert and Advisory
Board of The Accounts
Chamber
The expert, analytical , control and audit activity of the
Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation
3
Management architecture of the socio-economic
development of the Russian Federation
4
Ministries
Matrix of Russian Government activity results
5
The results of the evaluation of the effectiveness of the
forecasting system and strategic planning at national,
sectoral and regional levels
The quality of macroeconomic forecasting
Качество макроэкономического прогнозирования
The quality of macroeconomic forecasting
Валовый
продукт
Grossвнутренний
Domestic Product
billions
млрд.rubles
руб.
%
40000
140
(December to December)
Индекс потребительских цен (декабрь к декабрю)
%
120
USD/thousand cubic
meters.
долл./тыс.куб.м
USD/barr.
долл./барр.
70
36000
Consumer price index
Качество макроэкономического
прогнозирования
The quality
of macroeconomic
forecasting
Качество
макроэкономического
прогнозирования
Oil prices, Gas prices
Цены на нефть, цены на газ
118
350
130
118.6
118.0
69.3
116
61.0
32000
60
120
61.1
300
115.1
114
28000
110
Oil price
Цена на нефть
- отчет– report
(левая шкала)
(left scale)
50
50.6
264.5
100
98.54
40
231.2
93.03
90
91.03
85.75
Accuracy
Точность прогноза 30
of the
forecast
27.2
80
12000
20
76.45
163.2
10
2003
2005
2006
Отклонение фактических от прогнозных значений
10,0
9,0
по показателю
"Реальные
In terms of “Actual
располагаемые
household доходы
disposable income”
населения"
8,0
7,0
2004
2005
2006
5,1
In terms of
по показателю
"Инвестиции
“Investments
in fixed в
capital”
основной
капитал"
4,2
4,0
100,0%
6,5
2009 г.
6,0
6,0
Section “Extraction of
По mineral
разделу "Добыча
полезных
resources”
ископаемых"
80,0%
4,0
Section
По "Manufacturing"
разделу "Обрабатывающие
60,0%
3,5
производства"
5,5
2,3
2,3
1,7
2,0
1,4
1
1,0
1,1
1,9
1,1
0,2
2002
0,9
2003
1,3
0,9
0,4
2004
2005
отчетный период
Reporting period
2006
64%
1,5
1,0
0,8
2007
0,6
2008
Текущий год
Current year
0,8
0,5
2009
1,2
0,6
0,4
2010
плановый период
Planning period
По данным Доклада о результатах и основных направлениях деятельности Минэкономразвития на 2008-2010гг.
In terms of GDP
по ВВП
80%
47%
40,0%
Section "Transport
По complex"
разделу "Транспортный
(commercial
freight)
комплекс"
(коммерческий
2,0
2,0
1,8
1,5
1,5
1,0
0,5
83%
45%
41%
39%
2,5
2,0
2010 г.
73%
69%69%
69%
4,5
3,0
2,6
3,0
2005
2004
2003
2002
2007
ОценкаThe
точности
прогноза
развития
evaluation
of основных
forecast показателей
accuracy ofсоциально-экономического
the key indicators of socioeconomic на
development
Отклонение
значений
показателей
отраслей от
2008-2010 годыfor 2008-2010
Deviation
of фактических
actual values from
the forecast
valuesразвития
of the development
of
(deviation of the estimates of socio-economic development indicators from the
industries
(отклонение оценочных значений
показателей
СЭР от параметров,
заложенных
в федеральный
прогнозных
значений
parameters,
embodied
in the Federal
Budget
2008-2010)бюджет 2008-2010 гг.)
(differentiated by the integrated activities in accordance with the National
120,0%
(дифференцированно по
укрупнённым
видам
деятельности
в
соответствии
с
ОКВЭД)
111%
Classification of Economic Activities)
(не более,
в процентных
пунктах)
(not more
than,
in percentage
points)
2008 г.
5,0
6,0
5,0
2007
100
50
2003
2007
Deviation of actual values from the forecast values of the key
основных
показателей
социально-экономического
indicators
of socio-economic
development развития
(неthan,
более,inв процентных
пунктах)
(not more
percentage
points)
9,0
2006
102
85.4
2001
2004
Forecast – lower
- нижняя граница
Прогноз
bound
104
100
0
2002
107.0
97.4
60
50
2001
107.0
26781
0
2000
107.5
1,7
1,5
1,4
1,4
1,2
1,0
1,3
0,9
1,5
1,3
1,2
грузооборот)
0,8
"Agriculture"
По Section
разделу "Сельское
хозяйство"
0,2
0,0
2006
2007
отчетный период
Reporting period
2008
2009
2010
текущий год
плановый период
Current year
Planning period
По данным Доклада о результатах и основных направлениях деятельности Минэкономразвития на 2008-2010гг.
31%
32%
30%
26%
25%
25%
48%
41%
29%
31%
24%
17%
20,0%
12%
12%
2%
0,0%
Реальные
Actual household
располагаемые
income
disposable,
доходы
населения,
%
rate,%
growth
темп
роста,
15300
Forecast – the upper
Прогноз - верхняя граница
limit
108.0
Investments вin
Инвестиции
capital,
fixed капитал,
основной
млрд.руб.
billions rubles
13243
13050
10831
106
Оборот розничной
growth
Retail trade, темп
торговли,
rate, %%
роста
10950
Gas price
Цена на газ
(средняя actual) –
(average
фактическая)
- прогноз
forecast
(right
(правая шкала)
Продукция
Industrial production
промышленности
Russian Classification of
ОКВЭД,
темп роста,
Economic Activities
. growth
%
rate, %
9040.8
108.5
108.0
116.5
106.0
108.5
Импорт
of goods,
Import
товаров,
млрд.
долл.
billions USD
США
7900
109.0
Экспорт
of goods,
Exportтоваров,
млрд.
долл.
США
USD
billions
7063.4
24380
108
Consumer price
Индекс
index (at the end
потребительских
цен
(на конец
year)
of theгода)
5400
21620
110
scale)
21.5
109.0
30690
18540
17048
150
151.0
32989
4000
0,0
28.0
22.0
70
8000
111.9
Gas price
Цена на газ
(средняя actual) –
(average
фактическая)
- отчет
report
(right scale)
(правая шкала)
billions rubles .
87.38
200
GDP, руб.
ВВП, млрд.
16000
216.0
34.4
Forecast
Отчет
110.9
112.0
110.0
Отчет
Report
89.75
111.7
113.0
Oil price – forecast
Цена на нефть - прогноз
(left scale)
(левая шкала)
40.0
Цена
на нефть
Oil prices(Urals)
(Urals),
долл. за
USD/barr.
баррель
98.91
20000
Forecast
Прогноз
112
250
24000
6
Comparison of the development strategies of The Republic of
Bashkortostan and the Republic of Tatarstan
The Republic of Bashkortostan
The Republic of Tatarstan
Kazan
Ufa
Gross regional product, million rubles
645 526.3
Gross regional product, million rubles
884 232.9
The unemployment rate, %
9
The unemployment rate, %
6.3
Industrial production index
114
Industrial production index
108.7
Index of agricultural production (2010)
Consumer price index
Population, people
67.4
109.6
4 071 895
Index of agricultural production (2010)
Consumer price index
Population, people
69
108.2
3 787 355
7
Strategic audit of socio-economic development of the Republic of
Bashkortostan and the Republic of Tatarstan
Growth rates of GRP
The structure of the GRP
The dynamics of industrial production indices
Сельское Хозяйство, охота и лесное хозяйство
4,4
4,4 1,1
Добыча полезных ископаемых
9,8
Обрабатывающие производства
4,2
8,1
6,7
Производство и распределение электроэнергии, газа и воды
Строительство
Оптовая и розничная торговля
0,2
Гостиницы и рестораны
10,9
Транспорт и связь
21,8
Финансовая деятельность
1,2
Операции с недвижимым имуществом
Государственное управление и обеспечение военной безопасности
16,8
6,5
3,9
Образование
Здравоохранение и предоставление социальных услуг
Предоставление прочих коммунальных, социальных и персональных услуг
Татарстан
Number of crimes
2007
19076
2008
19558
2009
Башкортостан
2010
2007
81183
11909
2009
17200
22500
The structure of migration
58769
89109
20300
17000
Всего
преступлений
70623
16504
2008
2010
81251
77946
75471
Тяжкие и особо
тяжкие
преступления
72297
8
Strategic planning of the Krasnoyarsk Territory
BOGUCHANSKAYA HPP
BOGUCHANSKAYA ALUMINUM PLANT
CLOSED ADMINISTRATIVE-TERRITORIAL ENTITIES AND SETTLEMENTS
PROJECT
NIJNEE
PRIANGARYE
ACCOMODATION
AGROINDUSSTRIAL COMPLEX
HEALTH
EDUCATION
HOUSE
National
Priority
Projects
COUNTRY-SIDE
DEMOGRAPHY
CHILDREN
9
Assessment of project portfolios of Yakutia
1
Air; 11
Transport - 47
Roads; 13
2
Energy - 35
Water; 8
3
Railways;
15
4
TOTAL:
214
projects
5
Mining Industry- 34
6
Tourism
and sport;
6
Culture; 5
Education
and
science; 9
Forestry - 5
29
6
Health;8
Oil and Gas Industry- 29
Agro-industrial Complex - 4
7
Nuclear power
Electricity
Housing and utilities infrastructure - 19
8
Building industry - 13
9
Social sphere- 28
10
Scenario conditions used in the model
20092009
Price Urals, $/barr.
61
Preservation of current ratio of
rates of duty on oil products
in relation to duties on oil
(2009-2020)
2020
2020
2020
2020
65
108
126
Neutral scenario of
oil price movements
Urals
The optimistic
scenario of oil price
movements Urals
The pessimistic
scenario of oil price
movements Urals
Light oils
0%
72
100%
Modernization
aimed to meet the
requirements of
the technical
regulations, as
well as
accomplishment of
current incomplete
projects on
conversion rate
increase
Heavy oil
0%
100%
39
The alignment of rates of
duties on light and heavy
oil with respect to duties
on oil (2013-2020)
Light and heavy oil
0%
60
100%
Variation of predicted oil prices
The variation of the
investment
programs Oil
refinery
Remanufacturing with conversion rate increase
11
Comparison of the oil refining volume of the Ministry of
Energy model and the Accounts Chamber model
The volume of oil refining at world prices, billions of rubles
12
Results of the analysis of Russia development within the framework of the CIS
(based on indicators defined in the Concept of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development and the Strategy of Economic Development
of the CIS)
The growth of real income of the population,
% against prior period
The position of the CIS countries in
international rankings in terms of the global
competitiveness index
The position of the CIS countries in
international rankings in terms of the level
of development
The position of the CIS countries in
international rankings in terms of the level of
effectiveness of market mechanisms
The position of the CIS countries in international rankings in terms of the level of
the financial market development
13
Results of comparison of development KNIs of
the "Group of Twenty» member-states (G20)
Gross national dept (national government’s dept), % to GDP
(BRICS countries)
Consumer price movement, % (annual mean)
(BRICS countries)
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Gross national dept (national government’s dept), % to GDP
(developed countries)
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Consumer price movement, % (annual mean)
(developed countries)
Great Britain
Germany
Italy
France
USA
EU
Gross national dept (national government’s dept), % to GDP
(other countries of the “Group of twenty”)
Australia
Argentina
Indonesia
Canada
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Republic of Korea
Japan
Great Britain
Germany
Italy
France
USA
EU
Consumer price movement, % (annual mean)
(other countries of the “Group of twenty”)
Australia
Argentina
Indonesia
Canada
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Republic of Korea
Japan
14
System of KNI audit
15
Reference model of management and audit of socioeconomic development
Liabilities
of Business
Strategic planning
Standards of
social
responsibility
Liabilities
of Authority
Reports of
governors
Doctrines
Concepts
Programming
Reports on
corporate
social
responsibility
Budgeting
and management of
realization
Liabilities
of non-governmental
organizations
Programs
Projects
Synchronization
of goals,
architecture
and technology
transformation
Reports on the
results and main
areas of activity of
the Government
Budgets
Plans
Public-private
partnership
Results of
public
hearings
Coordination of goals, resources and measures of the Authority,
Society and Business
16
Thank you for attention!
17