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Mexican Road Reprivatization: A new attempt to Attract Private Investment to the Road Network Luis Calzada Alberto Gomez Isabelle Niño Mary Rachide Steve Smith Agenda • • • • • • Background Current Situation Issues Discussion Conclusions Questions Background • Mexico • Reform process during late 1980’s and early 1990’s • The Mexican Peso crisis • First Toll Road concessions • CAPUFE and FARAC Current Situation • Government objectives • Proposed plan • Description of roads Current Situation Mexico-Queretaro 2001 TRAFFIC 35% • 222 km 56% 9% CARS • 24.5 million vehicles BUSES TRUCKS 2001 REVENUES • US$210 million 30% 61% 9% CARS BUSES TRUCKS Current Situation Mexico-Puebla 2001 TRAFFIC 15% 9% • 125 km 75% CARS • 33.6 million vehicles BUSES TRUCKS 2001 REVENUES • US$132 million 35% 52% 14% CARS BUSES TRUCKS Current Situation Queretaro-Irapuato 2001 TRAFFIC 23% • 99 km 9% 68% CARS • 12.5 million vehicles BUSES TRUCKS 2001 REVENUES • US$78 million 35% 52% 14% CARS BUSES TRUCKS Issues • Risks – Operating Risks – Political Risks/ Creeping – Financial Risks/ Currency issues • Forecasts • Possible options Operating Risks • Revenue: – Traffic Volume- accurateness of the forecast and reliability of the government figures – Traffic Volume- GDP Growth – Toll rate (flexible but with limitations) • Major and Minor maintenance • Force Majeure (flood, earthquake…) Political Risks • Creeping expropriation, fees and restrictions • Direct expropriation- end of concessions • Performance of Legal System • Trade restrictions • Force Majeure (sabotage, insurrection…) Financial Risks • Exchange Risk • Senior Debt Service and Interest Rates • Cash Control Discussion Questions
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