Download African Oil Curse

NS4053 Fall 2013
African Governance and the Oil Curse
Africa: Vulnerable Countries, 2009 GDP Growth
2
Africa: Resilient Countries, 2009 GDP Growth
3
The Crisis and African Security
Many analysts believe the fallout from the global economic
crisis could have implications for Africa’s political stability
and security.
• May be particularly pertinent for post-conflict and fragile
states where:
• Institutions are especially weak,
• Investors wary and donors under financial pressure to cut back
aid.
• If the effects of the crisis linger pushing up the number of
impoverished and unemployed individuals:
• Long standing potential instability may be ignited
• Especially the case if local populations identify their governments
as the culprits of economic hardship
• Relatively weak governance and limited improvements in
institutions in years underlie many of the continent’s
Economic/Security vulnerabilities
4
African Governance: Voice and Accountability
Voice and Accountability (percentile)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Oil
M ineral
Costal
Landlocked
Northern
5
China
Country Governance: Voice and Accountability
Voice and Accountability (percentile)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Nige ria
South Africa
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Ke nya
Somalia
6
Political Stability, Absence of Violence (percentile)
African Governance: Political Stability
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Oil
Mineral
Costal
Landlocked
Northern
China
7
Political Stability, Absence of Violence (percentile)
Country Governance: Political Stability
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Country/Grouping
Nige ria
South Africa
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Ke nya
Somalia
8
Government Effectiveness (percentile)
African Governance: Government Effectiveness
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Oil
Mineral
Costal
Landlocked
Northern
9
China
Government Effectiveness (percentile)
Country Governance: Government Effectiveness
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Nigeria
South Africa
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Kenya
Somalia
10
Country Governance: Regulatory Quality
Regulatory Quality (percentile)
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Oil
M ine ral
Costal
Landlocke d
Northe rn
China
11
African Governance: Regulatory Quality
Regulatory Quality (percentile)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Nige ria
South Africa
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Ke nya
Somalia
12
African Governance: Rule of Law
50
Rule of Law (percentile)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Oil
M ineral
Costal
Landlocked
Northern
China
13
Country Governance: Rule of Law
60
Rule of Law (percentile)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Nige ria
South Africa
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Ke nya
Somalia
14
African Governance: Control of Corruption
Control of Corruption (percentile)
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Oil
M ine ral
Costal
Landlocke d
Northe rn
China
15
Country Governance: Control of Corruption
Control of Corruption (percentile)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
Country/Grouping
Nige ria
South Africa
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Ke nya
Somallia
16