Download Correcting the neoclassical standard model

Roskilde University, ENSPAC
ISEE Nairobi 2008
How did Denmark delink
energy consumption from
economic growth?
Anders Chr. Hansen
23-05-2017
Gross inland
consumption
Economic
growth and
energy use in
main sectors.
1900-2006.
Source:
Statistics Denmark
Anders Chr. Hansen
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10000
9000
8000
500000
Sustainable
development?
450000
400000
7000
6000
350000
GDP
(DKK bio, 2000-prices, left axis)
300000
5000
250000
4000
200000
3000
150000
2000
100000
1000
Gross Energy Consumption
(PJ, left axis)
50000
CO2-emissions
0
0
(kton, right axis)
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
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8%
6%
Required ecoefficiency progress
CO2-efficiency growth
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Energy efficiency growth
-4%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
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Concepts
Reference link between energy and growth

(dE/dt) /Et = (dY/dt)/Yt
Absolut delinking

(dE/dt) /Et > (dY/dt)/Yt
Relative delinking

0 < (dE/dt) /Et < (dY/dt)/Yt
Constant energy consumption?

A question of ≥ or ≤
Anders Chr. Hansen
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23.5.2017
Endogenous or planned delinking?
Environmental Kuznets curve
Anti-green movement in the first half of this
decade
 Automatic / endogenous delinking
 Relax, cool down, problem will be solved by itself

Exogenous, planned delinking
Delinking is an option (as well as linking)
 High political priority in the EU and memberstates

Anders Chr. Hansen
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Gross inland
consumption
Economic
growth and
energy use
in main
sectors.
1975-2006.
Source:
Statistics Denmark
Anders Chr. Hansen
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Major changes in Danish inland energy
consumption
1975-79
2002-06
Change
Households
346
304
-42
Industries x
transport
402
429
27
Transport
158
464
306
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Energy
productivity
(gross inland
consumption
of energy) for
OECD
economies.
1975-2006.
Source: EUROSTAT
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Energy
productivity
(GDP / Total
Primary
Energy
Supply) for
OECD
economies.
1960-2006.
Source: IEA
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Energy
productivity
(GDP in PPP/
Total Primary
Energy
Supply) for
OECD
economies.
1960-2006.
Source: IEA
Anders Chr. Hansen
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Energy savings
due to changing
industrial stucture
Anders Chr. Hansen
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Energy savings
due to changing
industrial stucture
Anders Chr. Hansen
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DK Energy
productivity
(VA or private
consumption
/gross inland
con-sumption)
for main
sectors.
1975-2006.
Source: Statistics Denmark
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DK Energy
productivity
(VA or private
consumption
/actual energy
consumption)
w/wo int.transp
1975-2006.
Source: Statistics Denmark
Anders Chr. Hansen
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DK Energy
productivity
(VA or private
consumption
/gross inland
consumption)
w/wo int.transp
1975-2006.
Source: Statistics Denmark
Anders Chr. Hansen
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23.5.2017
DK Energy
productivity
(VA or private
consumption
/gross inland
consumption)
w/wo int.transp
1975-2006.
Source: Statistics Denmark
Anders Chr. Hansen
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23.5.2017
Changes in industrial structure
Earlier studies agree:

Changes in industrial structure has little to say
This study:

It is not because changes are small, but because
they work in opposite directions
Anders Chr. Hansen
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23.5.2017
Dematerialisation (endogenous
delinking)
Observed trend: Less weight of energy intensive primary
(agriculture and fisheries) and secondary (cement, glass,
steel, chemical, paper) industries
But only one out of many trends, e.g., more transport, oil
and gas extraction
In DK also increasing oil and gas production contributes to
observed delinking because VA/GJ is above average
The crucial question is about the sum of all the trends
Delinking in Denmark primarily a result of long term
energy policy since the 70s: Energy savings, combining
heat and power production, using renewable energy
resources
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From central powerplants towards distributed
heat and power and renewable energy
Central elproduktion in midt-80’erne
Central og decentral elproduktion i dag
• Decentral kraftvarme
• Central kraftvarme
• Vindmøllepark
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100%
Wind etc.
90%
District
heating
80%
Industrial CHP etc.
Restructuring of the
Danish
power and
Central power and heat plants
heat sector
1980-2006
Distributed CHP
70%
PJ
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Central power plants
0%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source:
Danish Energy Agency
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Prices matter
Index 1900=1
2.5
2.0
1.5
Energy Consumption / GDP
1.0
0.5
Real Energy Price Index
0.0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
200023.5.2017
2500
300
Household real energy price
(right axis)
200
1500
150
1000
Industry energy efficiency
(left axis)
100
500
Industry real energy price
(right axis)
0
Market price (DKK/GJ)
250
2000
50
0
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
Econ activity/Energy use (DKK/GJ)
Household energy efficiency
(left axis)
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Thank you for your attention
Anders Chr. Hansen
Roskilde University, Denmark
 Department of Environmental, Social and Spatial
Change (ENSPAC)
 E-mail: [email protected]

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