Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Independent
Document related concepts
Transcript
FDI AND DEFORESTATION Duncan Hobbs Ahmet Caskurlu Nazar Mohammed Introduction How Green Was My Valley… Foreign Direct Investment • Pre-Industrial Revolution • Industrial Revolution • Post-Industrial Revolution Independent and Dependent Variables • Independent • FDI inflows • Dependent • Net forest depletion Hypothesis FDI INFLOWS FOREST DEPLETION Background • FDI conducive to economic growth • Most common variables • GDP/Cap, Population growth • Different ways of deforestation measurement • Opposition to FDI by environmentalists • Fear of environmental regulations • Kuznets curve-GDP per capita Methodology • Variable Selection • DV: Net Forest Depletion • IV: Foreign Direct Investment • 1) in inflation-adjusted USD • 2) as a percentage of GDP • Control Variables • Only Developing Countries • Years from 1990-2012 Malaysia Case • Malaysia -India- Liberia FDI % GDP Models Simple OLS Multivariate OLS Country FE -3986879*** -4537810*** -0.0141 Annual GDP Growth 9175934*** 1175291.7* GDP/Capita (USD) -3044147*** 16179.2 Agricultural Land (% of land area) 2875613*** -393695.3 net FDI inflows %GDP Observations 2987 1817 Adjusted R^2 0.0024 0.090 "* p<0.10 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01" Source FDI&NFD all countries.dta 1817 0.102 FDI in USD Models Simple OLS Multivariate OLS Country FE 0.00752*** 0.00678 -0.0141 Annual GDP Growth 7172881*** 1175291.7* GDP/Capita (USD) -3399960*** 16179.2 Agricultural Land (% of land area) 2721937*** -393695.3 net FDI inflows USD Observations 3014 1817 Adjusted R^2 0.017 0.094 "* p<0.10 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01" Source FDI&NFD all countries.dta 1817 0.11 Limitations of study • NFD observations coded as 0. • Suspicious for some nations e.g. Brazil. • Can’t necessarily fix with MI methods. • Lack of good inequality data. • FDI in USD not significant in Multi OLS model. • Fixed effect models lack significance. 0 NFD? Implications & Future Work • Marginal effect of FDI is relatively small. • About one penny of NFD per dollar of inflows. • Need to focus on domestic problems. Potential Future Research • New satellite data to analyze deforestation. • FDI inflows specific to forestry sector. • Region-specific analysis.
