Download Open - The Scottish Government

Estimating current price GVA
and GDP for Scotland
Sandy Stewart
OCEA
Overview of presentation
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Experimental Statistics – Work in Progress
Building on exercise for GERS 06-07
UK Starting Point – NA definitions
Regional Accounts – Gross Value Added
Calculation of Gross Domestic Product
Taxes less Subsidies on Products
Treatment of Extra Regio
Further Considerations
UK starting point
• UK quarterly National Accounts
• UK GVA, GDP, Taxes on Products and
Subsidies on Products – Not Seasonally
Adjusted – figures as “raw” as possible.
• Frozen snapshot at 2007 Q2 – consistent
with Blue Book 2007
• Detailed breakdown of taxes and
subsidies on products
Scottish starting point
• Regional Accounts GVA
• Problem – Regional Accounts (and
National Accounts) not balanced since
2004 – treatment of statistical discrepancy
• Use raw (unsmoothed) estimates of GVA
in preference to headline (smoothed) GVA
• Accuracy of GVA (I) – too much emphasis
on compensation of employees.
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Value Added at basic prices
Less
Taxes on products
Subsidies on products
equals
Gross Domestic Product at market prices
plus
Taxes on Products
• VAT (59%) – apportion by household
consumption, EFS, ONS
• Fuel duties (15%) – apportioned by proportion of
road traffic fuel consumption, BERR
• Tobacco duties (8%) - apportion by household
consumption, EFS, ONS
• Stamp duties (5%) – land and property stamp
duty: HMRC ; stocks and shares, FRS,DWP
• Others – various – see paper
Subsidies on Products
• Central government subsidies apportioned by
Regional Accounts GVA – housing, transport,
coal, electricity, recreation and economic affairs
by total GVA; agriculture, construction and
health by sectoral GVA
• Local government subsidies – use figures
supplied by SG for National Accounts
• More work required – especially on Agriculture –
note reclassification from subsidies on products
to subsidies on production in 2005-06.
Scottish onshore GVA and GDP
110
105
100
95
£ billion
90
GVA
GDP
pro rata GDP
85
80
75
70
65
60
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
Extra Regio
• Two components – Continental Shelf activity
(95%), and Public Administration and Defence
(5%).
• Two methods of apportionment
– CS and PAD by population
– CS by geography and PAD by population
• Research by Kemp and Stephen (see GERS
2006-07)
• No taxes or subsidies on products in Extra Regio
Scottish GVA and GDP - ER assumptions
140
120
100
80
£ billion
GVA
GDP
pop ER - GDP
geog ER - GDP
60
40
20
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
Considerations
• Consider build-up of annual figures from
quarterly data
• Consumption-based or production-based
apportionment
• Use of raw, not headline or SA, figures
• Quality of income-based GVA (Regional
Accounts)
• Future corrections, balances and reclassifications – large revisions.