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Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected] http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 6, 2012 Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 • 2008 and 2010 Class On Line: – http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • Projects: – First Meeting this week? • • • • Thursday before class? Thursday after class? Wednesday? Friday, remotely? The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html • State of the Climate: Global Key references and websites • Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends. • The ‘wedge’ paper: “A plan to keep carbon in check” by Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006. (link) – This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic growth Today • • • • • • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change) Summary Points: Science Correlated Observations CO2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Theory / Empirical Evidence CO2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets Concept of “Forcing” Validation Prediction Earth Will Warm Attribution Consequences Observations CO2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change Response: Think about this for a minute • What are the responses that make sense? – – – – Regulation Life time responsibility for product – the coke can Improve use of current resources – efficiency Integrate development and climate change - adaptation • What might motivate those responses? – – – – Potential costs Make the cost right … do not deny “use” Cost of inefficiency Social justice issues • What might hinder those responses? – – – – Cost – benefit Lack of flexibility Social justice issues Economy versus environment Mainstream approach – targets and timetables From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix Emissions are growing faster than expected Source: Manning et al. 2010 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix Where do emissions come from? People Population P Engage in economic activity that GDP per capita GDP/P Uses energy from Energy intensity of the economy TE/GDP Carbon emitting generation Carbon intensity of energy Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP -----P * C/TE TE * C ------GDP TE The “Kaya Identity” see IPCC WG 3 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix What tools do we have to reduce emissions? Factor Lever Approach to Policy P Population Less people Population management GDP/P GDP per capita Smaller economy Limit generation of wealth TE/GDP Energy intensity Increase efficiency Do same or more with less energy Carbon intensity Switch energy sources Generate energy with less emissions C/TE Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP -----P * TE ---GDP * C ---TE GDP Technology From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix Pielke Jr. argues • The need for technology to make solutions possible. • Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative • Must go – From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap – To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive Climate Change Relationships • We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 * megaton oil equivalent Source: International Energy Agency 2005 Context: Growth Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr) 10 cement and gas flaring 8 gas 6 oil 4 coal 2 deforestation 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Today • • • • • • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change) World Carbon Emissions Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr) 10 cement and gas flaring 8 gas 6 oil 4 coal 2 deforestation 0 1850 1900 • 1950 CO2 emissions arise from: 1. Cement production (~5 %) 2. Deforestation (~20 %) 3. Fossil fuel use (~75 %) 2000 75% CO2 source: Deforestation Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr) 10 Fossil fuels 8 6 4 Deforestation Total cement and gas flaring 320 200 GtC gas 520 Compare with 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere oil coal 2 deforestation • 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change: – It accounts for ~20 % of current CO2 emissions – It accounted for ~35 % of total CO2 emissions since preindustrial times. Context: Energy and Climate Change SOCIETAL SUCCESS • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION CLIMATE CHANGE Energy and Economic Success What countries are missing from this figure? What has changed since 2005? The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005) Today • • • • • • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change) In what forms do we consume energy? • Fossil fuels: – Coal – Oil – Natural gas • Other: – Nuclear – Hydro – Renewables (mostly biomass) – ‘Hydrogen’ Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004 Energy sources: Coal • Emits most CO2 per unit energy of all fossil fuels • Accounts for ~29% of world CO2 emissions • Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations) • Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter • Proven reserves are almost endless (~250 years) Energy sources: Oil • Emits ~75 % of coal CO2 emissions per unit energy. • Accounts for ~30 % of world CO2 emissions. • Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating • Proven reserves are ~40 years of conventional oil. After that, another ~100 years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.) • U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major national security concern Energy sources: Natural gas • Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO2 per unit energy • Accounted for ~16% of world CO2 emissions • Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal) • Proven reserves are another ~65 years Methane Leakage and Fracking Trend of fossil fuel use • In ‘businessas-usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy • Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally. International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007 Today • • • • • • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change) Emissions from economic sectors • Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture) US energy use by sector • Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc. • Transportation: cars, planes, ships EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 Transportation sector • Sector with fastest growing CO2 emissions in US U.S. energy consumption by sector • Dominated by oil and road transport • Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO2 emissions EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 Buildings sector • Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.) U.S. energy consumption by sector • Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating • Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use. EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 Industrial sector • Includes mining, refining, factories, etc. • The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed. • Also includes agriculture… U.S. energy consumption by sector U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 Agriculture: A different slice Agriculture • Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries. – Half of used energy and direct CO2 emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process) • BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change. • Livestock rearing is most significant contributor Agriculture: Livestock • 2006 report of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN: – “The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.” • Important economic sector: – Employs 1.3 billion people (mostly poor) – Occupies 30 % (!) of Earth’s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production • 33 % of arable land for feed production Agriculture: Livestock • Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of deforestation! – 70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures. – Feedcrops cover most of remaining 30 %. – Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use and ~2 GtC total deforestation) • Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050. Agriculture: Livestock • Responsible for ~18 % of CO2 equivalent GHG emissions (so including N2O and CH4) Same share as entire US! – 9 % of world CO2 emissions • Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer • Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!) • Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source) • Animal manure – 65 % of N2O • Mostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N2O emission 10 Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr) – 37 % of world CH4 emissions cement and gas flaring 8 gas 6 oil 4 coal 2 deforestation 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Today • • • • • • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change) Energy consumption by end use • The three main end uses of fossil fuel are: – Electric power plants (~40 % of CO2 emissions) – Transportation (~23 % of CO2 emissions) – Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO2 emissions) • So ~40 % CO2 emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels World CO2 emissions by fuel and end use Socolow and Pacala , 2006 Energy consumption by end use: Electricity • Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels • One third from hydro and nuclear power Cost of Electricity Cost of electricity in US in 2002 Electricity generation by source, U.S., 2006 Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009 • Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US! • Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive What is changing in this balance ? Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use • ‘Direct fuel use’: – Transportation (oil) – Heating in buildings – Industrial processes • Dominated by oil • No real alternatives for transportation fuels – Biofuels do not mitigate CO2 emission – Future switch to renewable-powered hydrogen and/or electric cars? Direct Fuel Use Pacala and Socolow, 2006 Today • • • • • • Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy CO2 emissions: where do they come from? Current sources of energy Emissions from economic sectors Energy consumption by end use External costs to energy use (besides climate change) Major External Costs • Public Health • National Security • Environment – Air quality – warming tension Energy and climate (besides greenhouse warming) • Burning of fossil fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by: – Scattering radiation – Seeding clouds • Cleaning up ‘dirty coal’ might thus not be good for climate… Summary Points: U.S. Energy Energy Appendix • Original Material from Jasper Kok CO2 source: Cement Production • Cement is produced from limestone, which is mostly calcite (CaCO3). • For production of cement: CaCO3 CaO + CO2 • Production of cement emits CO2 for two reasons: 1. CO2 emitted directly 2. Production process takes place at high temperatures only (> 1000 ºC) which requires a lot of energy. • Accounts for ~5 % of CO2 emissions worldwide CO2 source: Deforestation • Massive deforestation occurred – In developed nations during Industrial Revolution (driven by need for cheap energy) – In developing (tropical) nations right now, mostly in response to demand for cropland, pastures, and wood. • When forests are cut down, CO2 is released from: – Carbon in trees, plants, etc. (conversion to wood products preserves only small fraction) – Carbon in the soil (roots, humus) • Forests absorb “excess” CO2, since elevated CO2 stimulates growth – Removal of forests removes this natural buffer against climate change CO2 source: Fossil Fuel Use • Sharp increase (16-fold!) in world energy consumption over past century – Why did this occur? Energy and Economic Success The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005) So why has energy consumption increased so much? Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP) • GDP/capita is considered the “societal success” • Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP/capita. Energy and population • Strong population increase since pre-industrial times! http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP) World GDP/capita • Also strong growth in GDP/capita! http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP) Energy and GDP Energy use per capita and per dollar GDP in U.S. (index, 1980 = 1) • Energy/unit GDP decreases as societies become more developed shift from manufacturing to services (root cause of Michigan’s economic trouble) • But total energy use per capita does not decrease. EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2008 Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP) So why has energy consumption increased so much? Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person)*(energy/unit GDP) • Main drivers of rapid increase in energy consumption have been increases in population and GDP/capita • This is why climate change problem is so difficult: – We can’t affect population (possible, but politically incorrect…) – Reducing GDP to combat climate change is also not feasible • But reduction in energy per unit GDP occurs with shift to knowledge-based economy (developed world now). • Still, reduction in world energy use not realistic. – To reduce CO2 emissions, need to drastically lower CO2 emitted per unit energy, especially since we want economy to keep growing. Current sources of energy: Fossil fuels Energy sources: Coal • Emits most CO2 per unit energy of all fossil fuels • Accounts for ~29% of world CO2 emissions • Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations) • Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter • Proven reserves are almost endless (~250 years) Coal is major source of air pollution • Coal emits sulfur and smoke particulates • “Great London smog” of 1952 led to thousands of casualties. – Caused by cold inversion layer pollutants didn’t disperse + Londoners burned large amounts of coal for heating • Demonstrated impact of pollutants and played role in passage of “Clean Air Acts” in the US and Western Europe Coal use in the US Coal use by sector in US EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 • After “Great London smog” of 1952, decrease in residential coal use • Use of coal for electricity has been growing consistently because coal is cheap and abundant, and combustion technology is readily available Energy sources: Oil • Emits ~75 % of coal CO2 emissions per unit energy. • Accounts for ~30 % of world CO2 emissions. • Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating • Proven reserves are ~40 years of conventional oil. After that, another ~100 years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.) • U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major national security concern Energy sources: Natural gas • Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO2 per unit energy • Accounted for ~16% of world CO2 emissions • Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal) • Proven reserves are another ~65 years Trend of fossil fuel use • In ‘businessas-usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy • Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally. International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007 Reserves of fossil fuels Fuel type: Unconventional reserves (years) Oil Proven reserves (years) 41 Coal 251 210 Natural Gas 64 360 125 Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004 • We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon! • ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed methane, etc.. – Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine Current sources of energy: nuclear and renewables Energy sources: Nuclear • Accounts for ~6 % of world energy consumption and ~ 19 % of US electricity generation Nuclear share of electricity generation in U.S. • Used only for electricity generation • No CO2 emissions from plant operating, but some from uranium mining (~10 - 20 % of coal emissions per kWh) Nuclear power plant licenses issued in U.S. Chernobyl • Concerns about nuclear waste storage and nuclear weapons proliferation • Hardly growing in most of developed world. EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 Energy sources: Renewables • Mostly from biomass (wood), hydro power, and biofuels. • Contribution from other renewables (geothermal, solar, wind, tides) are small. Renewable energy as share of total energy in U.S., 2006 EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 Energy ‘sources’: Hydrogen • Hydrogen as a fuel is often misunderstood: – Hydrogen is NOT a source of energy! – It’s merely an energy carrier, much like electricity • Hydrogen is produced by electrolyzing water: This requires electricity • Hydrogen burns cleanly • Hydrogen’s significance is that: 1. It can be produced using renewable energy, which would displace fossil fuel. 2. Emissions are easier to mitigate, because they occur at a central location rather than individual cars. • In the absence of policies including cost of climate change, hydrogen would be generated using cheap coal-generated electricity Reserves of fossil fuels (repeat) Fuel type: Unconventional reserves (years) Oil Proven reserves (years) 41 Coal 251 210 Natural Gas 64 360 125 Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004 • We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon! • ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed methane, etc.. – Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine Electricity generation: Switch to renewables in future? • So in ‘business-as-usual’ abundant, cheap, fossil fuelderived electricity will likely be available until the end of the century. • This cheap electricity can also be used to produce hydrogen fuel, should oil demand exceed supply. • Renewables will thus not play important role until – Externalities are taken into account (taxes, cap-and-trade) – There are technological breakthroughs (solar PV, fusion) Energy and National Security • U.S. imports most of its oil US oil trade – This is a liability, as some of that oil comes from Middle East (though not as much as one would think!) – Past (and most of current) U.S. energy policy revolves around energy security – not climate change mitigation • Majority of remaining oil in Middle East Origin of US oil imports, 2006 Energy and Public Health • The burning of fossil fuels is the dominant source of air pollution, emitting – Carbon monoxide (CO), which is toxic and can cause headaches and exacerbate heart disease – Nitrogen oxides (NOx), which causes respiratory problems and leads to smog – Sulfur dioxide (SO2), which produces acid rain and smog – Particulate matter, which causes respiratory problems – Mercury emissions, which are mostly taken in through fish, where they bioaccumulate. • The overall cost of air pollution on human health is large (~6 % of deaths in EU) but very difficult to quantify Projects Use of climate information • Research on the use of climate knowledge states that for successful projects, for example: – Co-development / Co-generation – Trust – Narratives – Scale • Spatial • Temporal Lemos and Morehouse, 2005 Projects • Broad subjects and teams defined • Meeting 1 with Rood – Now to early March: Project vision and goals • Meeting 2 with Rood – Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed • Class review – Short, informal presentation, external review and possible coordination • Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12 • Final written report: April 25 Project Teams • Education / Denial – Allison Caine – Nayiri Haroutunian – Elizabeth McBride – Michelle Reicher Project Teams • Regional – Emily Basham – Catherine Kent – Sarah Schwimmer – James Toth – Nicholas Fantin Project Teams • City – Jian Wei Ang – Erin Dagg – Caroline Kinstle – Heather Lucier Project Teams • University – Nathan Hamet – Adam Schneider – Jillian Talaski – Victor Vardan glisaclimate.org • Goal to facilitate problem solving – Based on class experience – Support narratives – Build templates for problem solving