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Chapter 2 Tools of Analysis for International Trade Models Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Topics to be Covered • Economic Methodology • Assumptions of the Basic Model • Price Line • Production Possibility Frontier • Community Indifference Curves • Closed Economy (Autarky) Equilibrium • Measures of National Welfare • National Supply and Demand Curves Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-2 • Why do countries trade with one another? • What specific benefits can countries obtain through international trade? • Which country produces which good(s)? • Why do countries export and import certain goods? • At what prices do countries exchange exports and imports? • How does international trade differ from interregional trade? Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-3 • It makes little sense for a country or a region to produce what it can buy from another country or region at a lower cost • There is a concern that buying from foreign sources may lead to a loss of domestic jobs • All countries can benefit if each country specializes in production those goods it can produce best and satisfy their other wants and needs by trading for them Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-4 • Trade occurs because a businessperson thinks they can make a larger profit by moving goods from where they are currently produced to someplace else where they can be sold at a higher price Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-5 Economic Methodology • Model—Economist often build economic models to help them understand the pattern of economic behavior. An economic model is a theoretical description of the behavior. • Verbal models are the most important of all. • Geometric, which is the case with most of the models found in this book. • Algebraic, used mainly in statistical evaluation of economic data. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-6 Economic Methodolgy • Positive analysis—the analysis of economic behavior without making recommendations about what is or ought to be. • Normative analysis—economic analysis that makes value judgments about what is or should be. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-7 The Basic Model • General equilibrium model—output, consumption, prices, and trade are all determined simultaneously for all goods. • Beginning (7) assumptions • Three tools of analysis • Equilibrium solution Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-8 Assumption 1: Rational Behavior • Economic agents are goal-oriented. • Consumers maximize satisfaction (subject to constraints). • Firms maximize profit (subject to constraints). Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-9 Assumption 2: Two-country, Two-good World • Two countries: America (A) and Britain (B) • Two goods: Soybeans (S) and Textiles (T) • Goods are identical in both countries. • Some of both goods are always consumed in both countries. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-10 Assumption 3: No Money Illusion • No money illusion means that economic agents make decisions based on changes in all prices. • Nominal price—a price expressed in terms of money. • Relative price—a ratio of two product prices. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-11 Relative Price Rule • If Ps / PT k , then 1 unit of S k units of T (in value) or 1 unit of T 1/ k units of S (in value) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-12 Tool of Analysis: Price Line • Price Line (PL)—shows combinations of two goods that can be purchased with a fixed amount of money. • Money (M) = Ps S PT T • Slope of PL = relative price ( P / P ) S T • Shift of PL—caused by a change in income or a change in both good prices. • Rotation of PL—caused by a change in one product price, other things constant. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-13 FIGURE 2.1 Example of a Price Line Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-14 Assumption 4: Fixed Resources and Technology • Tool of analysis: Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) • PPF—shows maximum amount of one good that can be produced given the country’s fixed resources and technology and the level of output of the other good. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-15 Characteristics of a Production Possibility Frontier • Full and efficient employment of resources • Slope of PPF = opportunity (social) cost = T / S • Shape of PPF: constant cost (linear PPF) vs. increasing cost (bowed out PPF) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-16 FIGURE 2.2 Examples of Production Possibility Frontiers: (a) Increasing Opportunity Costs; (b) Constant Opportunity Costs Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-17 Assumption 5: Perfect Competition in Both Industries in Both Countries • Price equals marginal cost or slope of PPF (T / S) = slope of PL (PS / PT ) • Labor unions are not present Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-18 FIGURE 2.3 Relationship Between Price Line and Production Point Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-19 Assumption 6: Resources Perfectly Mobile Between Industries • Resources earn the same payments in both industries within a country. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-20 Tool of Analysis: Indifference Curve • Represents demand side of the economy • Indifference Curve—shows combinations of two goods that yield the same level of satisfaction to a consumer. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-21 Properties of Indifference Curves • Individual-specific • Downward-sloping • Convex to the origin • Higher curves indicate higher levels of satisfaction • Non-intersecting Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-22 FIGURE 2.4 Indifference Curves and Individual Utility Maximization Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-23 Consumer Utility Maximization • Consumer maximizes utility subject to an income or budget constraint (price line) • Consumer equilibrium solution occurs at the tangency point of an indifference curve and the price line (refer to Figure 2.4(d), previous slide). Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-24 Assumption 7: Community Indifference Curves • Community Indifference Curves (CIC) represent the consumption preferences of the community. • Problem: group preferences may not be consistent Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-25 TABLE 2.1 Illustration of Condorcet’s Voting Paradox Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-26 General Equilibrium Model for a Closed Economy (Autarky) • Autarky—self-sufficient country before trade. • Constant opportunity cost case vs. increasing opportunity cost • Equilibrium—tangency point of the PPF and CIC • Consumption point before trade • Production point before trade Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-27 FIGURE 2.5 General Equilibrium for a Closed Economy: Constant Opportunity Costs Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-28 FIGURE 2.6 General Equilibrium for a Closed Increasing Opportunity Costs Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-29 Measures of National Welfare • Community Indifference Curve • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • Nominal GDP can change due to a change in output and/or a change in prices. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-30 Real GDP • Increases in real GDP may imply increases in national welfare. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-31 FIGURE 2.7 Determination of Real GDP Level Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-32 Another Way of Showing General Equilibrium for an Economy • National Supply Curve—shows the amounts of a good produced in a nation at various relative prices for that good. • National Demand Curve—shows the amounts of national consumption of a good at various relative prices • Equilibrium autarky price— at the intersection of National Demand curve and National Supply curve. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-33 FIGURE 2.8 Alternative Derivation of the Autarky Price Ratio Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-34 Trade Based on Differences in Autarky Prices • If country A has a lower autarky relative price of S, then it has a comparative advantage in S and a comparative disadvantage in T. • International trade can occur based on comparative advantage. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-35 FIGURE 2.9 International Differences in Autarky Prices Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-36 Equation 2.1 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-37