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THE GREEN MOMENT?
THE CRISES OF CAPITALISM AND THE RESPONSE
OF PROGRESSIVE POLITICS
MICHAEL JACOBS
Visiting Professor
Department of Political Science / School of Public Policy
University College London
School of Public Policy
University College London
24 January 2012
2011 Q1
2010 Q2
2009 Q3
2008 Q4
2008 Q1
2007 Q2
2006 Q3
2005 Q4
2005 Q1
2004 Q2
2003 Q3
2002 Q4
2002 Q1
2001 Q2
2000 Q3
1999 Q4
1999 Q1
1998 Q2
1997 Q3
1996 Q4
1996 Q1
1995 Q2
1994 Q3
1993 Q4
1993 Q1
1992 Q2
1991 Q3
1990 Q4
1990 Q1
UK real GDP (£m adjusted) 1990-2011
360,000
340,000
320,000
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
220,000
200,000
UK GDP (£m adjusted)
Source: ONS
2
Jan-12
Jan-10
Jan-08
Jan-06
Jan-04
Jan-02
Jan-00
Jan-98
Jan-96
Jan-94
Jan-92
Jan-90
Jan-88
Jan-86
Jan-84
Jan-82
FTSE All Share
Jan-80
Jan-78
Jan-76
Jan-74
Jan-72
Jan-70
UK and world stock markets 1970-2011
2500
MSCI World
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Source: FTSE / HSBC
3
The present recession compared to previous ones
GDP's fall from its pre-recession peak
1956 Q1
1957 Q2
1961 Q3
1973 Q3
1975 Q2
1980 Q1
1990 Q3
2008 Q2
2%
1%
-1%
-
1 year
2 years
3 years
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
Source: ONS / Resolution Foundation
4
Greenhouse gas emissions – business as usual and
stabilisation paths
100
Global Emissions (GtCO2e/yr)
90
450ppm CO2e
80
550ppm CO2e
70
Business as Usual
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Source: Stern Review
5
Projected impacts of climate change
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
0°C
Food
Water
5°C
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Falling yields in many
Possible rising yields in some
developed regions
high latitude regions
Small mountain glaciers
disappear – water
supplies threatened in
several areas
Significant decreases in water
availability in many areas, including
Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Sea level rise threatens
major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage to
Coral Reefs
Rising number of species face extinction
Extreme
Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Risk of Abrupt and
Major Irreversible
Changes
Source: IPCC / Stern Review
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt,
large-scale shifts in the climate system
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Food and energy prices 2005-2011
Source: World Bank
7
Annual growth in crop yields 1971-2009
Source: GMO
8
Annual global fertiliser use 1961-2008
Source: GMO
9
World hectares of arable land per capita 1961-2010
Source: GMO
10
Oil price 1971-2011 and US recessions
%Yr
% Yr
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
-100
-100
71
91
11
Real oil price
Source: HSBC
11
Commodity prices 1900-2010
12
Iron ore prices 1900-2010
Source: GMO
13
China’s share of world commodity consumption
Source: GMO
14
UK household savings ratio (saving as percentage of
income) 1955-2011 and household debt 1999-2011
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1955 1962 1969 1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011
-2%
Source: ONS / Resolution Foundation
15
UK median wages and real GDP per capita 1971-2011
240
220
GDP per capita
Males
Females
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
Source: ONS, OBR / Resolution Foundation
16
US median wages and real GDP per capita 1950-2009
280
Median income, males
GDP per capita
Median income, females
240
200
160
120
80
1959
1969
1979
1989
1999
2009
Source: US Census Bureau / Resolution Foundation
17
UK full-time male earnings 1977 to 2020 (projected) if wages grow at (1) 1997-2003 rates; and (2) 2003-08 rates
1977 = 100
2011 prices
Scenario one: OBR projection followed
by return to 1997-2003 wage growth rates
230
1977 = 100
2011 prices
Scenario two: OBR projection followed
by return to 2003-2008 wage growth rates
230
210
210
90th
90th
190
190
75th
75th
170
170
median
median
150
150
25th
25th
130
130
10th
10th
110
110
90
1977
1983
1989
1995
2001
2007
2013
2019
90
1977
1983
1989
1995
2001
2007
2013
2019
Source: OBR / Resolution Foundation
18
Self-reported happiness 1970-2010: UK, US, Italy, France
Source: Veehoven, R. World Database of Happiness
19
UK self-reported happiness / life satisfaction 1970-2011
1,600,000
UK GDP (£ m)
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
How satisfied are you with the life you lead?
Very satisfied (4), quite satisfied (3), not very
satisfied (2), not at all satisfied (1)
UK GDP (£ m)
Source: Veehoven, R. World Database of Happiness
20
Ratio of earnings at the top of the income distribution
to those at the bottom (male) – UK
ratios of gross weekly pay
FT male employees
3.9
90-10
3.4
2.9
90-50
2.4
1.9
50-10
1.4
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Source: ONS / Resolution Foundation
21
Income distribution in the US 1979-2007
Source: US Congressional Budget Office
22
Inequality in the UK and US 1970-2010 (Gini coefficient)
Gini coefficient after taxes and transfers
United Kingdom
United States
0.40
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.36
0.347
0.34
0.34
0.351
0.35
0.334
0.30
0.345
0.331
0.33
0.32
0.30
0.35
0.305
0.28
0.26
0.264
0.24
0.22
0.20
mid-70s
mid-80s
around 1990
mid-90s
around 2000
mid-2000s
latest year
Source: OECD/ Resolution Foundation
23
Measure of Domestic Progress 1950-2002 – UK
(GDP minus economic, social and environmental costs)
Source: New Economics Foundation
24
The five core propositions of green political philosophy
• That the natural world has intrinsic value and must be
protected as the highest political priority
• That for human societies to live sustainably within the earth’s
environmental limits, a zero-growth, ‘steady-state’ economy is
required
• That human wellbeing does not derive from material
consumption but from states of being and quality of life
• That human societies flourish best at small scale, in local
communities with direct democracy, egalitarian relations and
co-operative ownership
• That work should be meaningful, with a better balance
between paid work, unpaid care and leisure and community
activities
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Co-dependant economies
Copyright Michael Jacobs
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