Download Business Cycles

Welcome to California!
A Subsidiary of U.S., Inc.
Presentation to
Candidates for the Position of
Entrepreneur
Director of Recruiting and Placement
Contra Costa Division
United States, Inc.
U.S., Inc. - We’re #1!
Ranking of World Economies – 2007 (PPP)
World
1. U.S.
2. E.U.
3. China
4. Japan
5. India
6. Germany
7. U.K.
$65.00 trillion
12.98 trillion
12.82 trillion
10.00 trillion
4.22 trillion
4.04 trillion
2.38 trillion
1.90 trillion
Source: CIA Handbook
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
California
A Subsidiary of U.S., Inc.
California, Inc.
$1.4 Trillion in 2003!
State
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2002
GreenBizz Project
2002 GSP (millions)
$125,567
$29,708
$171,781
$71,929
$1,367,785
$179,410
$165,744
$47,150
$66,440
$520,500
$305,829
$43,998
$38,558
$486,139
$204,946
$98,232
$89,508
$122,282
$131,584
$39,039
$201,879
$288,088
$351,287
$200,061
$69,136
$187,543
State
2002 GSP (millions)
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
$23,773
$60,962
$81,182
$46,448
$380,169
$53,515
$792,058
$300,216
$19,780
$388,224
$95,126
$115,138
$428,950
$36,988
$122,354
$25,003
$190,122
$773,455
$72,974
$19,604
$287,589
$232,940
$45,518
$190,650
$20,285
U.S., Inc.
$10,407,141
Digital Safari Institute
California - We’re Top!
California
U.S., Inc.
China
Japan
India
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Russia
Brazil
South Korea
Canada
Mexico
Spain
Indonesia
Australia
Turkey
Iran
Thailand
Netherlands
South Africa
Taiwan
Argentina
Philippines
Poland
Source: NationMaster.com, CIA World Factbook, December 2003
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Contra Costa
A Division of California
and Proud Member of
U.S., Inc.
A Growing Population
Contra Costa County and California Population: 1998-2006f
1,200
4%
921.7
937
953.7
976.9
988.6
999.9
1,021.00
1,000
3%
California
2.4%
800
Growth Rate
2.1%
2%
1,009.10
1,035.20
1.7%
1.8%
Contra Costa County
1.2%
600
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
400
0.9%
1%
200
0
0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006f
Source: California Dept. of Finance
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
A Changing Population
Contra Costa County Net Migration: 1998-2006f
Number of Persons (thousands)
20
Net Foreign Migration
15
Net Domestic Migration
6.1
10
5.2
4.4
4.9
10.8
5
7.9
5.0
6.5
5
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.3
2.5
0.1
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006f
Source: California Dept. of Finance
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
A Wealthy County
Contra Costa County and California Per Capita Income
1998-2006f
Contra Costa County
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
$49,559
California
$44,477
$44,500
$43,712
$43,958
2000
2001
2002
2003
$45,730
$47,376
$39,623
$37,524
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
1998
1999
2004
2005
2006f
Source: California Dept. of Finance
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Contra Costa’s Economy
Contra Costa County Non-Farm Employment
by Sector: 2005
Nat'l Resources &
Mining
0.2%
Government
16.1%
Construction
8.5%
Manufacturing
6.1%
Wholesale & Retail
Trade
14.9%
Transportation,
Warehousing &
Utilities
2.1%
Services
42.4%
Finance & Real
Estate
9.7%
Source: California Dept. of Finance
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Employment by Sectors
Contra Costa County Employment by Industry Sector: 2005
(thousands of jobs)
Local Government
49.0
Professional & Business Services
46.2
Education & Health Services
43.7
Retail Trade
43.3
Financial Activities
33.9
Leisure & Hospitality
31.0
Construction
29.7
Manufacturing
21.3
Information
13.8
Other Services
13.3
Wholesale Trade
8.9
Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities
7.2
Federal Government
6.5
State Government
0.8
(0)
10
20
30
40
50
60
Source: California Dept. of Finance
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Growth Sectors
Contra Costa County Employment by Industry Sector
Year-over Change (% ), 2006f
Professional & Business Services
4.8%
Information
3.6%
Leisure & Hospitality
3.5%
Financial Activities
3.5%
Education & Health Services
3.4%
Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities
2.8%
Retail Trade
2.8%
Local Government
2.4%
Other Services
2.3%
Wholesale Trade
2.2%
Construction
2.0%
State Government
0.0%
Manufacturing
0.0%
Federal Government
0.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Source: California Dept. of Finance
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Understanding
Business Cycles
Stages of a Business Cycle

Expansion Phase
– Boom
– Peak

Contraction Phase
– Slowdown
– Recession (2+ quarters)
– Trough
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Business Cycles
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Business Cycles
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Business Cycles
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Business Cycles
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Business Cycles
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Business Cycles
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Business Cycles
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Economic Cycles
Booms, Busts and Recessions
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
GDP Annualized Quarterly Change
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
0.6%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2 3 4 1
2004
2 3 4
2005
1 2 3
2006
4 1 2
3 4 1
2007
‘08
Source: Federal Reserve, Department of Commerce
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Entering 2008:
Economic “Contraction”
How Long and How Severe?
Peak
Trough
Average Duration: 10 Months
Average Severity: -1.8% (Real GDP)
Historical Period
’45
Nov ‘48 - Oct ’49
Jul ‘53 - May ’54
Aug ‘57 - Apr ’58
Apr ‘60 - Feb ’61
Dec ‘69 - Nov ’70
Months
8
GreenBizz Project
Feb ‘45 - Oct
11
10
8
10
11
Historical Period
‘73 - Mar ’75
Jan ‘80 - Jul ’80
Jul ‘81 - Nov ’82
Jul ‘90 - Mar ’91
Mar ‘01 - Nov ’01
Months Nov
16
6
16
8
8
Digital Safari Institute
Need: More Jobs!
(Net Change in Non-Farm Employment )
Thousands
Apr. ‘08
-20,000
2007
2008
Source: Department of Labor
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Fewer Jobs in the East Bay
East Bay Job Erosion
Source: State Employment Development Department
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Tracking the
Business Cycle
Useful Economic Indicators
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
 Interest Rates (Federal Funds Rate)
 Inflation (Consumer Price Index or CPI)
 Employment (Number of New Jobs)
 Unemployment (%)
 Income Growth (% Change)
 Corporate After Tax Profits (% Change)

GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Tracking the Business Cycle
Expansion
 Interest Rates:
Up
 Inflation:
Up
 Employment:
Up
 Unemployment:
Down
 Income:
Up
 Corp. Profits:
Up
GreenBizz Project
Contraction
Down
Down
Down
Up
Down
Down
Digital Safari Institute
California Needs
Entrepreneurs!
California Needs Entrepreneurs!

Entrepreneurs solve problems
– “Find a Need and Fill It!”

Entrepreneurs create:
– New Products and Services
– New Jobs
– Economic Vitality for the Community
– Personal Wealth
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Managing for Prosperity
Changing Economic Times
 Increased Competition (global!)
 Can’t Afford Business Failures
 Need to Understand Trends & Cycles
 Change Happens!

– Take Advantage of Opportunities
– Be Prepared for Difficult Times
GreenBizz Project
Digital Safari Institute
Go For It!
California
A Subsidiary of U.S., Inc.
Contra Costa Division