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Chapter 7 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Hossain: MSMC Aggregate Demand Aggregate Demand is not same as just Demand we learnt in chapter 3. In chapter 3, Demand was a relationship between Price (P) Quantity Demanded at that price (Qd) According to the Law of Demand, if you recall, P and Qd had a negative relationship Does anyone remember what that meant? Hossain: MSMC 2 The Law of Demand The negative relationship means two things: When Price Quantity demanded When price Quantity demanded Copied from chapter 3 Hossain: MSMC 3 Aggregate Demand Aggregate Demand is also a relationship between two important macro variables Those are: Its not price (P) Price Level (PL) Real GDP (Y) It’s not the Quantity Demanded(Qd) There is a big difference, here One concerns a single good or service (D) The concerns the whole economy (AD) Hossain: MSMC 4 Difference between P and PL Price or P simply means price of any single good or service. Say price of apple or orange Price Level or PL, on the other hand, is the average price of all goods and services combined PL is typically captured by some sort of price index Can anyone give me an example of a price index? Very CPIgood, is one,you IPD areisright another Hossain: MSMC 5 Difference between QD and RGDP Again, Quantity Demanded or QD is for a single good or service. RGDP is for the whole economy However, there is a similarity Both D and AD express a negative relationship Which means, they both have Negative Slope Hossain: MSMC 6 Price Level PL C + I + G + Xn = RGDP A 1.18 8,400 1,820 2,150 -570 11,800 B 1.16 8,450 1,860 2,150 -560 11,900 C 1.14 8,500 1,900 2,150 -550 12,000 D 1.12 8,550 1,940 2,150 -540 12,100 E 1.10 8,600 1,980 2,150 -530 12,200 Price level (base year = 1.00) Point on AD curve 1.2 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.1 Aggregate Demand (AD) A B C D E 1.08 11,600 11,700 11,800 11,900 12,000 12,100 12,200 12,300 12,400 12,500 12,600 Real GDP (billions of base-year dollars) per year Why AD is Downward Sloping When PL rises, RGDP falls and when PL falls RGDP rises This can be explained by following 3 effects: Wealth Effect Interest Rate Effect International Trade Effect Hossain: MSMC 8 Wealth Effect When PL Rises Value of saved asset or wealth (stock, bonds and savings) falls People feel Poorer Consumption (C) Falls RGDP falls When PL Falls Value of saved asset or wealth (stock, bonds and savings) rises People feel Richer Consumption (C) Rises RGDP Rises Hossain: MSMC 9 Interest Rate Effect When PL Rises People demand more Money Interest rate Rises Investment (I) Falls RGDP falls This channel is known as Interest Rate Effect When PL Falls People demand Less Money Interest rate Falls Investment (I) Rises RGDP Rises This channel is known as Interest Rate Effect Hossain: MSMC 10 International Trade Effect When PL Rises Export Falls Import Rises Net Export (XN) Falls RGDP falls This channel is known as International Trade Effect When PL Falls Export Rises Import Falls Net Export (XN) Rises RGDP risess This channel is known as International Trade Effect Hossain: MSMC 11 Price Level PL Xn = RGDP A 1.18 8,400 1,820 2,150 -570 11,800 B 1.16 8,450 1,860 2,150 -560 11,900 C 1.14 8,500 1,900 2,150 -550 12,000 D 1.12 8,550 1,940 2,150 -540 12,100 E 1.10 8,600 1,980 2,150 -530 12,200 From A to E PL is Falling C is Rising I is Rising G is Unchanged Xn is Rising RGDP is Rising Price level (base year = 1.00) Point on AD curve C + I + G + 1.2 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.1 1.08 11,600 11,700 11,800 11,900 12,000 12,100 12,200 12,300 12,400 12,500 12,600 Real GDP (billions of base-year dollars) per year Change in AD Because of Wealth Effect, Interest Rate Effect and International Trade Effect, when PL changes, RGDP changes in the Opposite Direction This causes a Movement on a same AD curve When some thing other than PL affect the AD, the whole AD curve shifts. This is known as Change in AD Hossain: MSMC 13 Change in AD Note, change in PL will never shift the AD curve But, changes in C, I, G and XN will This is because they are all components of RGDP For example, if businesses feel optimistic about 2011 and spend $10b in new investment (I), then this will increase RGDP at all possible PL This means, AD will shift to the right Hossain: MSMC 14 Change in AD Price level (base year = 1.00) A decrease in aggregate demand An increase in aggregate demand 1.2 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.1 AD2 AD1 AD2 1.08 Real GDP (billions of base-year dollars) per year Idea of Multiplier Because of initial investment of $10b, RGDP will Directly rise by $10b almost immediately However, there are Indirect boost to economy as well Recall, someone spending is always someone else’s income Investment spending will also increase incomes and wages in the economy With higher income, consumption (C) will rise Hossain: MSMC 16 Idea of Multiplier Increased Consumption (c) will further increase the RGDP But, Cycle does not stop there. Because of consumption spending, someone else’s income rises and induces more consumption by the person whose income has rises When all is over, economy observes a much larger increase than initial investment spending. Hossain: MSMC 17 Idea of Multiplier Multiplier measures, how many times the final RGDP rises compared to initial spending Formula: Multiplier = Change in Final RGDP Change in Initial Component of AD Exercise: if $10b investment increases the RGDP by $25b, compute the multiplier Hossain: MSMC 18 The Multiplier Panel (a) Price level (base year = 1.00) 1.2 1.18 1.16 Effect of initial increase in net exports without multiplier effect 1.14 1.12 1.1 AD1 AD2 1.08 Real GDP (billions of base-year dollars) per year The Multiplier Panel (b) Price level (base year = 1.00) 1.2 1.18 Effect of initial decrease in net exports without multiplier effect 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.1 AD2 AD1 1.08 Real GDP (billions of base-year dollars) per year