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Ch 9. The Aggregate Expenditures Model (a) The investment demand curve and (b) the investment schedule a) The level of investment spending ($20 bill) is determined by the interest rate (8%) together with the investment demand curve (ID). b) The investment schedule (Ig) relates the amount of investment ($20 bill) determined in (a) to the various levels of GDP (set amount/constant). A. B. C. D. Equilibrium GDP: (GDP = C + Ig). Savings equals planned investment (S=Ig). Planned investment – amount firms plan to invest. Investment schedule – shows amount firms plan to invest at possible values of real GDP. Aggregate expenditures schedule – shows total amount spent on final goods/ services at diff. levels of real GDP. Aggregate Expenditure is a measure of national income. It is a way to measure the total GDP or Gross Domestic Product (A measure of the level of economic activity). It is defined as the value of planned goods and services produced in an economy. GDP is calculated by the formula C + I + G + NX C = Consumption Expenditure (Also written as CE) I = Investment (Ip + Iu planned + unplanned) G = Government spending NX = Net exports (Exports-Imports) Aggregate Expenditures is defined as C + Ig. -- John Maynard Keynes (pronounced Caines) developed the Aggregate Expenditures Model, aka the ‘Keynesian Model’ or ‘Keynes Cross.’ -- The amount of goods & services produced and therefore the level of employment depend directly on the level of aggregate expenditures (total spending). Keynes ideas, called Keynesian economics, had a major impact on the Great Depresison and modern economic / political theory as well as on many gov’ts' fiscal policies. He advocated Interventionist gov’t policy, by which the gov’t would use fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of economic recessions, depressions and booms. He is one of the fathers of modern theoretical macroeconomics. Keynes appeared on Dec 31, 1965 edition of TIME magazine. Keynes argued that the solution to depression was to stimulate the economy ("inducement to invest") through some combination of two approaches : A reduction in interest rates. Government investment in infrastructure. John Maynard Keynes – British economist favored the heavy gov’t spending during a recession, even running a deficit, to jumpstart the economy (Keynesian economics). Consumption and Investment (2) Real (7) (8) Domestic (3) (5) (6) Unplanned Tendency of Output Con(1) (4) Investment Aggregate Changes in Employment (and sumpEmploy- Income) tion Saving (S) (Ig) Expenditures Inventories Output and ment (GDP=DI) (C) (1-2) (C+Ig) (+ or -) Income …in Billions of Dollars The table shows 10 possible levels of production. (1) 40 $370 $375 $-5 20 $395 $-25 Increase (2) 45 390 390 0 20 410 -20 Increase (3) 50 410 405 5 20 425 -15 Increase (4) 55 430 420 10 20 440 -10 Increase (5) 60 450 435 15 20 455 -5 Increase (6) 65 470 450 20 20 470 0 Equilibrium (7) 70 490 465 25 20 485 +5 Decrease (8) 75 510 480 30 20 500 +10 Decrease (9) 80 530 495 35 20 515 +15 Decrease (10) 85 550 510 40 20 530 +20 Decrease Graphically… Consumption and Investment Equilibrium GDP 530 (C + Ig = GDP) The Keynesian Model (Keynes Cross) showing the Aggregate Expenditure Model Consumption (billions of dollars) 510 Equilibrium Point 490 470 C + Ig C Aggregate Expenditures 450 Ig = $20 Billion 430 410 390 C = $450 Billion 370 45° 370 390 410 430 450 470 490 510 530 550 Disposable Income (billions of dollars) Equilibrium GDP: C + Ig = GDP Aggregate expenditures – in a closed economy, AE consists of C (col 3) + I (col 5) = sum in col 6. Col 2 makes the AE schedule (GDP=DI). The schedule shows the amount (C+Ig) that will be spent at each possible output or income level. Equilibrium GDP where GDP (DI) & AE columns are equal (col. 2 and 6, are each $470 bill). Equilibrium Graph Changes in the equilibrium GDP caused by shifts in the aggregate expenditures schedule and the investment schedule Aggregate expenditures Equilibrium point C+Ig Increase in investment 470 450 C ● Decrease in investment 470 450 Real domestic product, GDP The Keynes Cross showing the Aggregate Expenditure Model E. Multiplier: Δ in output & income Δ in investment spending If the amount invested increased by $5 billion, that increase will shift the graph upward. $5 billion Δ in investment spending leads to $20 billion Δ in output & income (income is Y). Multiplier is 4 (= $20/$5). MPS is .25 In an open-mixed economy, equilibrium GDP occurs where: Ca+Ig+Xn+G=GDP Net exports and equilibrium GDP Net exports are exports minus imports. Gov’t spending and equilibrium GDP c Aggregate expenditures Gov’t spending increase b a ● ● d e Real GDP Point ‘a’ -- In a private closed economy, the APC is equal to 1 at what income level? Points ‘c and d” -- If AE are Ca+Ig+Xn+G, the amount of savings at $225 are what points? Equilibrium Versus Full-Employment GDP Recessionary Expenditure Gap Aggregate Expenditures (billions of dollars) 550 530 510 AE0 AE1 $5 Billion Gap Yields $20 Billion GDP Change Recessionary Expenditure Gap = $5 Billion 490 Full Employment 470 45° 490 510 530 Real GDP (billions of dollars) Equilibrium Versus Full-Employment GDP Inflationary Expenditure Gap AE2 Aggregate Expenditures (billions of dollars) 550 530 AE0 Inflationary Expenditure Gap = $5 Billion $5 Billion Gap Yields $20 Billion GDP Change 510 490 Full Employment 470 45° 490 510 530 Real GDP (billions of dollars) F. Lump-sum tax – tax that’s a constant amount at all levels of GDP. G. Recessionary gap – amount the agg expenditures schedule must shift upward to increase real GDP to full-employment. H. Inflationary gap – amount the agg expenditures schedule must shift downward to decrease real GDP to fullemployment.