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GLOBALIZATION: THEN AND NOW “SLEEPING GIANT” NO MORE "Let China sleep, for when she wakes the world will shake.” -- Napoleon Bonaparte (1805) WORLD OUTPUT: 1820-1950 Country 1820 1950 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------China 30% 5% India 16% 4% European Big Four 17% 19% USA 2% 27% CHINESE ECONOMY: PRE-REFORM YEARS POST-MAO CHINESE REFORMS Pre-1949: Traditional Agrarian Economy with Limited Industry 1978-1984: Rural Reforms 1949-1957: Following the Soviet Model of Command Economy 1985-1989: Urban Reforms 1958-1960: The Great Leap Forward Movement 1992-1999: Market Reforms 1961-1964: Post-GLF Economic Adjustment 1965-1976: The Cultural Revolution and Self-Reliance 2001-- WTO-Led Reforms RISE, FALL AND REEMERGENCE OF CHINA WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMIES WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMIES • China: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/ch.html • GDP (purchasing power parity): $18.09 trillion (2014 est.) • • • GDP (official exchange rate): $10.36 trillion (2014 est.) • • • • #2 (EU, China, US) http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/12/07/chinas-now-theworld-number-one-economy-and-it-doesnt-matter-a-darn/ #2 (US, China, Japan) http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/ Note: because China's exchange rate is determined by fiat, rather than by market forces, the official exchange rate measure of GDP is not an accurate measure of China's output; GDP at the official exchange rate substantially understates the actual level of China's output vis-a-vis the rest of the world; in China's situation, GDP at purchasing power parity provides the best measure for comparing output across countries United States: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/us.html • GDP (purchasing power parity): $17.35 trillion (2014 est.) • • #3 (EU, China, US) GDP (official exchange rate): $17.35 trillion (2014 est.) • #1 (US, China, Japan) KEY COMPONENTS OF CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 1. Special Economic Zones 1. A Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is a geographical region that has economic and other laws that are more free-market-oriented than a country's typical or national laws. 2. In China, founded by Deng Xiaoping in the early 80s. 2. Export-led and FDI-driven 1. A foreign direct investment (FDI) is a controlling ownership in a business enterprise in one country by an entity based in another country. 3. Manufacturing-centered 4. State as the “visible hand” 5. Heavy investment by the state in infrastructure and agriculture 6. High national and individual saving rate SOCIALIST (COMMUNIST) WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS • Socialism with Chinese characteristics is the official ideology of the CCP based upon socialism. This ideology supports the creation of a socialist market economy dominated by the public sector since China is in the primary stage of socialism. The Chinese government maintains that it has not abandoned Marxism and argues that socialism is compatible with these economic policies. • In current Chinese Communist thinking, China is in the primary stage of socialism—a view which explains the Chinese government's flexible economic policies to develop into an industrialized nation. • Deng Xiaoping, the architect of the Chinese economic reforms, did not believe that the market economy was synonymous with capitalism or that planning was synonymous with socialism • "What is socialism and what is Marxism? We were not quite clear about this in the past. Marxism attaches utmost importance to developing the productive forces. We have said that socialism is the primary stage of communism and that at the advanced stage the principle of from each according to his ability and to each according to his needs will be applied. This calls for highly developed productive forces and an overwhelming abundance of material wealth. Therefore, the fundamental task for the socialist stage is to develop the productive forces. The superiority of the socialist system is demonstrated, in the final analysis, by faster and greater development of those forces than under the capitalist system. As they develop, the people's material and cultural life will constantly improve. One of our shortcomings after the founding of the People's Republic was that we didn't pay enough attention to developing the productive forces. Socialism means eliminating poverty. Pauperism is not socialism, still less communism.“ • • DENG XIAOPING Socialism and communism are alike in that both are systems of production for use based on public ownership of the means of production and centralized planning. Socialism grows directly out of capitalism; it is the first form of the new society. Communism is a further development or "higher stage" of socialism. 2005