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Monetary Policy
Report
October 2011
Turbulence abroad
slowing down the Swedish economy
Repo rate remains low
Major problems with public finances
200
200
USA
Greece
Ireland
160
160
Italy
120
120
80
80
40
40
0
0
00
02
Public debt as percentage of GDP
04
06
08
10
12
14
Source: IMF WEO September 2011
Turbulence in the financial markets
180
180
Emerging markets (MSCI)
USA (S&P 500)
Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
Sweden (OMXS)
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
04
05
06
Stock exchange index, 3 January 2006 = 100
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Declining confidence
70
70
Euro area
USA
The World
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing industry, seasonally-adjusted data
10
11
Source: Markit Economics
Substantial differences in growth
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Euro area
-4
-4
USA
The World
-6
-6
00
01
02
GDP, annual percentage change
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Lower confidence among Swedish
households and companies
40
40
Households confidence indicator
Total business sector
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Confidence indicators for households and total business sector, net figures, seasonally-adjusted data
11
Source: NIER
Slower consumption growth
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
Household consumption, annual percentage change
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Moderate growth in Sweden
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
-12
Mean 2000Q1-2011Q2
-16
-16
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
GDP, quarterly percentage change as annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Cautious employment plans
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Business sector employment plans according to Business Tendency Survey, net figures
10
11
Source: NIER
Slow improvement in the labour market
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Unemployment, percentage of labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Moderate inflation
5
5
CPI
4
4
CPIF
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
05
06
Annual percentage change
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Repo rate remains low
7
7
October
6
6
September
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
07
08
09
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values
10
11
12
13
14
Source: The Riksbank
A forecast not a promise
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
6
5
Higher inflation abroad
6
Financial turmoil calms
down sooner than expected
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Prolonged public finance crisis
-1
-1
07
08
09
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values
10
11
12
13
14
Source: The Riksbank
Turbulence abroad
slowing down the Swedish economy
Repo rate remains low