Download Symposium on Energy The Context

Energy and Climate
Change:The Context
Richard A. Meserve
Carnegie Institution
1530 P St., NW
Washington, DC 20004
202-387-6404
[email protected]
EJ/year
World Energy 1850-2000
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro +
Biomass
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Year
Fossil fuels drove most of the growth & were almost 80% of supply in 2000.
Direct measurements of CO2 show continued rise
Concentration reached 380 ppmv in 2005
Fossil-fuel origin of
most of the increase is
confirmed by reduction
in C-14 concentration.
Atmospheric CO2 measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
Source: NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory
The last 400 and next 100 years of global temperature
Mid-range scenarios are heading for T‘s last seen 30 million years ago.
World CO2 Emissions by Region (Mt of CO2)
Source: IEA, 2006
CO2 Data
CO2 Emissions
(Mt of CO2)
World
China
India
United
States
OECD
Population
(million)
CO2/Pop
(t CO2/capita)
(billion 2000$)
CO2/GDP
(kg CO2/2000$)
26583
4769
1102
5800
6352
1303
1080
294
4.18
3.66
1.02
19.73
35025
1904
581
10704
0.76
2.50
1.90
0.54
12911
1164
11.09
27698
0.47
Source: IEA, 2006
GDP
EJ/year
World Energy 1850-2000
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro +
Biomass
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Year
Fossil fuels drove most of the growth & were almost 80% of supply in 2000.
Regional Shares of Crude Oil Production
Source: IEA, 2006