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Synthesis Econ 109 Fall 2002 Looking Back 1 Outline • Themes: The Big Issues • Economic Concepts • Perspectives By Course Section – What We Learned – Why We Learned It – How We Can Use It 2 The Big Issues • Looking Out for # 1 – answer: save and invest (Course: Part I) • Can a country (or civilization) generate a surplus to finance military power and/or the arts and sciences? – Answer: Malthus- landowners squeeze the peasants – Answer: Marx- capitalists squeeze the workers, (Course: Part III) – Answer: Adam Smith- markets lead to efficiency and general welfare 3 The Big Issues (cont.) – Answer: Modern economists- population growth increases the labor force; saving and investing increases capital; capital deepening increases worker productivity; research and development promotes technologival change (Course: Parts II and III) – Answer: Monopoly power squeezes consumers (Course: Part III) 4 Is Globalization & Trade Good or Bad? • Good • trade permits decoupling of production and consumption, i.e. promotes specialization • growth in GDP per capita leads to more equity • trade promotes competition and curbs monopoly power • Bad • growth uses up world resources • global warming • loss of forests • loss of clean oceans and rivers (Course: Part IV) 5 Is Capitalism a Good Economic System or Not? (Course: Parts II, III, IV) • Good • if markets are competitive, then economy is efficient • Bad • instability, subject to fear, decreases in consumption and investment, capital flight • monopoly power exploits consumers, wastes resources, and corrupts democracy 6 Economic Concepts • Economic Paradigm: A Way of Thinking – #1 set out your options for choice – #2 value these options ( using market prices or personal values or social values) – #3 optimize, i.e. pick the best choice • Marginal Principle – set marginal benefit(revenue) equal to marginal cost (if marginal revenue is constant then marginal revenue=average revenue=price) • Reality Principle • Scarcity and Opportunity Cost • Diminishing Returns 7 Concept Applications • Economic Paradigm – buying a car; Lecture 2 – supplying your time to the labor market: L.4 – choosing the investments with the average rate of return-risk tradeoff that is best for you: L5 – crime (pollution)-consumption possibility frontier, community choice of optimal crim (pollution) levels L.17 8 Tools Applications • Keynesian Cross: L. 6, L. 7 & L. 10 • Production Possibility Frontier – Guns or Butter L. 8, L. 10 – Agricultural goods or manufacturing goods L. 12 – Ag. Or mfg. Goods: a closed economy vs. trade andan open economy • Demand and Supply – demand for mortgage credit: L. 3 – demand & supply of funds in the bond market: L. 4 – demand & supply of banking reserves: L. 9 & L. 10 9 Tools Applications • Demand and Supply – demand and supply of world copper L.14 – demand and supply of pesos: capital flight from peso L. 15 – demand & supply of $, capital flight from the baht L. 16 – demand and supply of bahts, capital flight from the baht L. 16 – demand & supply of low-skilled labor contrasted to demand & supply of high-skilled labor, the wage differential for skill L 16 10 Tools Applications • Production Function, wage bill, surplus L. 11 • Marginal product of labor (demand), supply of labor, surplus L. 12 – demand & supply of labor: minimum wage L. 12 – demand & supply of labor: capital deepening L.13 – demand & supply of labor: technological change L. 13 • Consumer Surplus & Competitive Markets L. 13 – consumer surplus, monopoly profit, and dead-weight loss L.14 11 Tools Applications • Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient: L.16 12 Perspective • What we learned • Why we learned it • How we can use it 13 Part I: Personal Finance, Economics of Everyday Life 14 Purchasing the Big Ticket Items: Cars and Homes • Why: Need to be well informed about the important decisions in our lives • What: cars and houses last a while, and a $ this year is equivalent to a $ next year times one plus the interest rate $(t) = $(t+1)(1 + r) • What: cars depreciate physically and most cars depreciate economically • What: houses depreciate physically and will likely appreciate in value in CA 15 Cont. • What: mortgage payments on loans are front loaded with interest, so equity will build slowly • What: Need to save for the down payments, so we need to budget our expenditures • How to use this info: when the time comes, tools are available for free on the internet or at low cost in common software packages 16 Tool: Income-Expense Statement Income Amount own salary spouse “ insurance dividends interest rent other Total Expenditure Amount taxes life insurance cars food clothing housing other Total Savings Equals Income Minus Expenditure 17 Economic Principles • A dollar today is not the same as a dollar tomorrow! – $10 today @ 6.9% = $10 * 1.069 next year • The “opportunity cost” of spending your money is the foregone interest. • The cost of buying the services of the car, neglecting operating costs: – depreciation: owning a new car – foregone interest 18 Increasing the Length of the Loan Tradeoffs • • • • monthly payment amount decreases amount of total payments increases amount of total interest payments increases total interest as % of total payments increases 19 Thinking About Problems: The Economic Paradigm • describing the alternatives to choose among • pricing the alternatives • choosing the best alternative 20 The Economic Paradigm example: buying a car • describing the alternatives to choose among – cash: the opportunity cost of losing interest – lease: depreciation included in payments – loan: sell the car to account for depreciation • pricing the alternatives: valuation – Oscar Wilde- economists know the price of everything and the value of nothing • choosing the best alternative – best: lowest cost – possibly subject to a constraint: having the $ 21 What to Do with Those Savings • Why: investments that earn more will let you buy your cars and house sooner • What: investments have two attributes, average rate of return(the reward), a good, and variability in the rate of return(the risk), a bad • What: You want the investment with the highest average rate of return for a given level of risk • What: returns are equal to capital gains (losses) plus dividends 22 An Example of Two Alternative Investments Two UC Funds: Monthly Rate of Return, Sept 95 - Aug 01 10 5 Jun-01 Mar-01 Dec-00 Sep-00 Jun-00 Mar-00 Dec-99 Sep-99 Jun-99 Mar-99 Dec-98 Sep-98 Jun-98 Mar-98 Dec-97 Sep-97 Jun-97 Mar-97 Dec-96 Sep-96 Jun-96 Mar-96 Dec-95 Rate Sep-95 0 -5 -10 Equity Fund Insurance Contract -15 Year:Month 23 Tool: Efficient Portfolio- Most Return for Given Risk Return Versus Risk for Six UC Funds Sept 95-Aug 01 1.20 Equity Economic paradigm step1 1.00 Average Return Bond 0.80 0.60 Multi-Asset Insurance Savings 0.40 Money Market 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 Risk: Volatility 24 Economic Paradigm step 2: Valuation of Mean Return and Risk Assumption: Mean Return is Good, Risk is Bad: U =U(M,R) better Mean Return, M worse B C A Iso - Preference Curves Prefer B to A; Prefer B to C Risk, R 25 Economic Paradigm step 3: Choosing the Best Investment for You Optimum for B UC Funds: Mean Return Vs. Risk (Standard Deviation) 2.00 Investor B: not very risk averse Equity 1.80 1.60 Mean Return 1.40 1.20 Multi-Asset Bond 1.00 0.80 0.60 Insurance Savings 0.40 Money Market 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 Standard Deviation 2.50 3.00 3.50 26 Personal Earnings and Human Capital • Why: Your major source of $ is likely to be income • What: Your Earnings will depend upon – your ability – your knowledge – your work experience • How: Hang in until you get your college degree 27 Families: Average Income and Average Net Worth, 1995 Quintile Lowest 20% Second 20% Third 20% Fourth 20% Highest 20% Av. Income $8,032 $17,916 $28,965 $43,930 $73,058 Av. Net Worth $3,000 $14,600 $31,185 $51,133 $118,171 Even with wealth of $100, 000, at 5%, you earn only $ 5, 000 of income so you will need to work Source: Consumer Federation of America 28 Tool: Earnings Opportunities: Trading Time for Money Earnings $480 Opportunities for trading leisure for earnings (income) at a rate, $20 per hour, the market wage, determined by your stock of human capital(step one of the paradigm: describing the alternatives for choice) Economic Paradigm step 1 $0 0 hours 24 hours Leisure (learning) 29 Tool: Your preferences (tastes) for 2 goods, income & leisure Earnings $480 Depicting your tastes graphically low value high Iso-Preference Curves: You value all points on a curve equally Economic paradigm step 2 high value $0 0 hours Leisure 24 hours (learning) 30 Putting the 2 tools together: explaining your supply of labor Earnings $480 low value high Individual’s Supply of Labor Economic paradigm step 3 $180 for 9 hrs of work Optimum high value Leisure (learning) $0 0 hours 15 hours of 24 hours 31 Part Five: Economic Welfare and Public Policy • Why: we need to consider the welfare of fellow citizens, not just me-me-me • What: most folks that are poor are poor because they do not work • What: most folks that do not work have a low level of human capital, i. e. the labor market places a low value on their time • What: persistent pockets of poverty among female heads of households and their kids 32 Cont. • In the US, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer • In the US economy, there is a growing earnings premium on ability, on education, and on experience, i.e. on human capital • In the US, we can’t seem to get the poverty rate below 10% • How to use this info: on public policy issues when you vote 33 Life does not offer very good options for the uneducated Earnings $480 low value slope of the iso-preference curve through the 24 hour high endowment is the lowest wage at which you are willing to work $96 $0 0 hours 24 hours Leisure (learning) dropout is unwilling to work for $4/hr 34 Poverty and Female Heads of Households Lab10: Children, Poverty, and Politics: US Census Bureau: Poverty in the United States: 2000 35 One Difficulty in Reducing Poverty: Adverse Social Trends Percentage of Births Occuring Out of Wedlock, . White Women by Age Group, US . 35 30 Percent 25 15-19 20-24 25-29 20 15 10 5 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 Year 1975 1980 36 Poverty and Youth Lab 10: Children, Poverty, and Politics 37 In the US, the Rich Get Richer and the Poor get Poorer T rends in Shares of US Family Income . 60 Top 5 % Top 20 % Bottom 40% 50 30 20 10 Year 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 0 1970 Percent 40 38 Ratio of Median Earnings, Males: College Grad to High School Grad Source: Economic Report of the President, 1997 39 Growing Wage Differentials Between the Less Skilled and More Skilled: Less Demand for Less Skilled and More Demand for the More Skilled Source: Economic Report of the President, 1997 40 Cont. • What: In the world, developed countries have a more equitable distribution of income than undeveloped countries, one of the positive consequences of growth • What: In the world, political systems and history also count. Socialist countries and countries with mixed economies tend to be more equitable. However, their tax burden is also greater 41 The Distribution of Income and Growth 0.7 Jamaica 0.6 Brazil Honduras Mexico Hong Kong Gini Coefficient 0.5 Malaysia 0.4 Singapore 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 GDP Per Capita, 1990 42 Tool: Lorenz Curves for Hungary and Brazil 43 Income Inequality Across the World Lab 7, Ch. 23, Internet Exercises, World Bank Links http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/ 44 Higher Tax Burden in France than in the US Lab 7, Ch. 23, Internet Exercises, “Taking a Look at the Level of Economic Development and Well-Being in Countries Around the World” Link to Handbook of International Economic Statistics 45 Part Two: Macroeconomics and the US Economy • Why: because the economy affects your prospects for finding and keeping a job, the interest rate you pay on loans, and the return you get on your investments • What: There are two ways to measure the size of an economy, National Income and National Expenditure or GDP (circular flow). They have to be the same, i.e. in equilibrium 46 Cont. • What: GDP is equal to consumption by consumers plus investment by firms, plus spending by government plus net exports ( exports minus imports) • GDP = C + I + G + X - M 47 : Chapter Twenty • Conceptual Framework: Circular Flow Firms Income Firms Labor Supply Goods Demand Goods Households Households Income Perspective Expenditure Perspective Y = GDP 48 Expenditure Perspective: Open Firms Exports (Sales) Supply Goods Demand Goods Imports (puchases) Households Government Households: Consumption of Goods and Services Firms: Investment in Plant and Equipment Government: Purchase of Goods and Services All Three: Exports - Imports = Net Exports 49 Bust Consumption, C Investment, I GDP Aggregate Expenditure 45 Income = expenditure I.e. Y = GDP GDP = C + I +G Total Expenditure GDP Line Unemployment Rate Oct. 2000 = 3.9% 0 GDP = Y National Unemployment Rate Income, Y Sept 2001 = 4.9 % Graphical Tool: The Keynesian Cross 50 US Postwar Expansions Trough - Peak Duration, Months Oct. ‘45 - Nov. ‘48 37 Oct. ‘49 - July ‘53 45 May ‘54 - Aug. ‘57 39 April ‘58 - April ‘60 24 Feb. ‘61 - Dec. ‘69 106 Nov. 70 - Nov. ‘73 36 March ‘75 - Jan. ‘80 58 July’80 - July ‘81 12 Nov. ‘82 - July ‘90 92 March ‘91 – March ‘01 121 51 Cont. • What: In addition to fiscal policy, I.e taxation policy and government spending, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, engages in monetary policy • What: the Fed can buy government securities on the secondary bond market (open market operations) and if it buys from a private bank, for example, credits this bank with reserves. This private bank can use any excess reserves over those required by the Fed to make loans to consumers and businesses. In turn these groups can spend. 52 Cont. • What: the federal funds rate is the rate of interest banks pay to borrow from one another. If the Fed increases the supply of reserves through open market operations, this results in a decrease in the federal funds rate. • What: The central bank acts as a bank of last resort, lending money to private banks at the discount window, charging them interest at the discount rate. 53 Impact of the Supply of Reserves on the Federal Funds Rate FFR, price of reserves Demand for Reserves by Banks Supply of Reserves: Fed quantity of reserves 54 Fighting Recession, the Fed Cuts the Federal Funds Rate from 6.5% in Dec. 2000 to 2.5% in Oct 2001 During the Same Period, the Fed Cut the Discount Rate from 6% to 2 % 55 56 Part Three: Competition, Monopoly, and Public Policy • Why: Growth in GDP per capita increases the standard of living for people and means that we can avoid the Malthusian trap and avoid Marx’s prediction of the increasing immiseration of the working class • What: Growth depends on increasing worker productivity, i.e. output per worker or average product. Output per worker increases as capital per worker rises (capital deepening), including social infrastructure, and as technology improves 57 Cont. • What: Malthus believed that population increases would devour any surplus in output, keeping peasants at a subsistence wage. • What: Marx believed that capitalists would seek more profit by introducing labor saving machines, displacing workers and creating an army of the unemployed. This surplus of workers would keep wages at the subsistence level. Neither Malthus nor Marx foresaw capital accumulation and technological change saving the day. 58 Cont. • What: Because economic growth leads to prosperity, more and more countries are embracing free markets, capitalism, and international trade. • How to use this info: You can stay up at night worrying whether science, engineering and technology will bail us out in the coming century, as it did in the past two, or whether Malthus and Marx will ultimately be right. 59 GNP Per Capita, Growth Rates Around the World 60 Output per Worker Average, Marginal Product Things Improve with capital deepening: Output per worker increase, shifting APL Labor Supply1874 Labor Supply1954 Real Wage1954 MPL1874 APL Real Wage1874 MPL1954 L1874 L1954 Input, # of workers 61 Capital Formation National Savings Gross Investment + - Net Investment Capital Stock Depreciation 62 Table 23.2 Source of Real GDP Growth, 1929-1982 (average annual percentage rates) Due to capital growth 0.56 19 % Due to labor growth 1.34 46 % + technological progress 1.02 35 % Output growth 2.92 100 % Source: Edward F. Denison, Trends in Economic Growth 1929-82 (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1985). 63 Research and Development as a Percentage of GDP Chapter 23, Figure 23.5 64 Optimal Size of Plant with Variable Returns to Scale LMC LATC LATC SMCIV D SATCIV SMCIII pM SATCIII Quantity Reference: Lecture 14 S Market (different scale for output) The Social Cost of Monopoly: Example, Constant Returns to Scale Competition Monopoly Market Demand Market Demand Consumer Surplus Dead Weight Loss PM Profit LATC = LMC PM LATC = LMC MR QCOMP QMONOP Under monopoly, some consumer surplus is redistributed to the monopolist as profit, and some is lost to society 66 The Ghost of Malthus 67 Population Growth Rates Around the World 68 Part Five(again): Economic Welfare and Public Policy • Why: Economic growth and prosperity may not be unambiguously good. Growth may bring pollution as a byproduct. Free markets and free societies may have more deviant behavior. • What: Societies must choose through their political system how much GDP to allocate to cleaning up the environment and how much GDP to allocate to fighting crime and keeping citizens and their property safe 69 Tool: Crime (pollution) - Consumption Possibility Frontier Offenses (pollution): bad Minimum possible Opportunity cost of less crime Consumption: good The first step of the paradigm: the options for choice 70 Community Values Confront Reality: Crime (pollution) - Consumption Possibility Frontier Offenses (pollution): bad optimum Community preferences Community wish list Consumption: good The second step of the paradigm: pricing the options 71 The Developed Countries Are Increasing the Risk of Global Climate Change 72 The Developed Countries Are Also the Ones That Can Afford To Clean Up Central Government Expenditure as a % of GDP, 1995 http://www.worldbank.org/depweb Llad Ph illips 76 73 Part Four: Trade, the Balance of Payments and the Global Economy • Why: Globalization characterizes our times. World trade is stimulating economic growth, breaking down the barriers that protect inefficient domestic industries. • What: Trade, or voluntary exchange, benefits both parties. Trade allows them to specialize on what they do best, rather than be self-sufficient, and specialization increases productivity. Trade permits the decoupling of production from consumption. 74 Cont. • What: Trade of goods and services may not always be in balance however. Imports may exceed exports and countries, like people, may borrow to live a little higher on the hog. For people, this is often reflected by credit card debt. In the case of countries, we call them debtor nations. • What: The danger in being a debtor nation is the possibility of capital flight. Foreigners who own a country’s bonds may sell them and then sell this country’s currency to buy their own, i.e. cash out and go home. 75 Cont. • What: If the target country’s central bank does not have sufficient reserves of foreign currencies to permit them to buy their own currency, and offset the effect of capital flight on the exchange rate, they will have to devalue their currency. • What: A stable exchange rate means trade and economic activity is less risky. • What: Currently, the only mechanism to offset capital flight and avoid international monetary crises is cooperation among central banks, arranging loans for the target. 76 Growth in World Trade Source: Economic Report of the President, 1997 http://www.gpo.ucop.edu/catalog/erp97.html 77 Around the World, Trade is Growing Faster Than GNP 78 Trade Allows the West to Decouple Production & Consumption Production Possibility Frontier, PPF Eastern Prices: Ag/ Mf = PMf/PAg Agriculture QAg Exports Regional Tastes: B C CAg A Imports QMf CMf Manufactures 79 Capital Flight 1. foreigners sell their Thai investments 2. foreigners exchange their Baht proceeds for say dollars 3. Demand for dollars shifts and price of the dollar in Bahts rises demand for dollars supply of dollars Bahts per US $ quantity of dollars 80 Part III. (45 points) Answer all three questions. 1. Suppose, in the future, countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU) lose confidence in the attractiveness of the United States as a haven for their investments, perhaps in part because US interest rates decline dramatically. Suppose this causes a repatriation of money to EMU countries, and fewer Euros are supplied to the US and to the foreign exchange Demand for Euros $ price of the Euro Demand for Euros $ price of the Euro $/Euro $/Euro Supply of Euros Quantity of Euros Figure 1A: Before Capital Flight Quantity of Euros Figure1B: After Capital Flight a. After capital flight, show the shift in the supply curve of Euros in Figure 1B. b. Does the equilibrium quantity of Euros increase or decrease?__decrease____________ c. Does the Euro appreciate or depreciate? __appreciate_______________ d. Illustrate the new exchange rate in Figure 1B. e. If the U S Federal Reserve intervenes in the foreign exchange market using its reserves of foreign exchange, which curve will shift, the demand curve for Euros or the supply curve for Euros? __supply____________ 2. Currently, for the third quarter of 2000, the economy is at full employment at $10.05 trillion(T) for GDP. Net exports, X-M, are in deficit at $-0.39 T and government expenditures, G, are $1.75 T. So together, government expenditures and net exports are $ 1.36 T. Note that the government is in surplus, i.e. expenditures exceed receipts from taxes etc., so the government is absorbing purchasing power rather than generating it. For the sake of simplicity, assume government expenditures and net exports do not vary with national income, as illustrated in Figure 2. In thinking about the prospects about a recession in 2001, the expenditure emphasis is on the private domestic economy: consumers and business firms. GDP, Expenditure Components In $ Trillions $10.05 T Total GDP Line Total GDP Line if C + I fall G + (X-M) = $ 1.36 T G + (X-M) < $ 1.36 T 450 National Income Full Employment National Income, $10.05T Figure 2: The Keynesian Cross and GDP Expenditure = National Income a. Together, how many trillions must consumption and investment total at the full employment level of national income? _____$8.69 T______________ b. Draw in the total expenditure (or GDP) line in Fig. 2, which increases with national income, since consumption increases with national income, showing its intersection with the GDP= National Income line at $10.05 T. c. Suppose consumer confidence continues to weaken, and consumption and investment expenditure fall. Illustrate the consequent shift in the total expenditure (or GDP) line in Figure 2. d. If the balance of trade deficit grows worse, and fiscal policy and government expenditure do not change, illustrate the effect on the G + (X-M) line in Figure 2. e. If all of these unfortunate things come to pass, what will happen to the unemployment rate? __it ___ ___will_______ ___rise_____________. 3. The technology for electricity generation has increasing returns to scale and therefore a downward sloping longrun average total cost (LATC) curve, as illustrated in Figure 3. These are the conditions for a natural monopoly. Price per Kilowatt Hour Market Demand pM LATC pR Long Run Marginal Cost qM Marginal Revenue qR Billions of Kilowatt Hours,q Figure 3: Market Demand and Long Run costs per Kilowatt Hour for Electricity a. If the government deregulates electricity, as has happened in California, and the monopolist is free to determine output and price, show in Fig. 3 the price, pM, and the output, qM, the monopolist will choose. b. Under government control of electricity, an efficient use of resources would result from setting price equal to long run marginal cost (LMC) where LMC crosses the demand curve. Why isn’t this a feasible price for the government to set? The low price would benefit the consumer. _monopolist_________ _makes_____ _a_ __loss___________. c. With government regulation of the electricity market, using average cost pricing, the government could set long-run average total cost to price where LATC crosses the demand curve. Illustrate this regulated price, pR, and corresponding quantity, qR, in Fig. 3. Comparing, deregulation, with the monopolist free to maximize profits, to regulation, is the consumer better off or worse off? _better________ ___off_________( with regulation). Course Grading Quiz Midterm Final Course 40 80 169 289 If you complete over 70 % of both the text Problems and Lab Exercises, then your course grade is increased by 1/3 grade point 86 Thursday, Dec. 12, 4:00-7:00 PM, Final, You will need a scantron sheet and #2 pencil. • Good Luck 87