Download Greece 2010-2011: Turning page

GREECE IS CHANGING
2010 – 2012
April 2012
Fiscal consolidation
2

Primary budget deficit decreased from €24.1 bn in 2009 to €10.7 bn in 2010 to
€4.7 bn in 2011
General Government Deficit & General Government Primary Deficit
(bn euro)
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
-5
-4.7
-10
-10.7
-11.2
-15
-20
-25
-19.6
-22.9
-24.1
-23.5
-30
-35
-36.1
-40
General Government Deficit
Source: ELSTAT/Eurostat, April 2012
General Government Primary Deficit
Cyclically adjusted Primary Balance* (% GDP)
3
4
2.3
2
1.1
-0.1
0
-2
0.7
-0.3
-2.1
-1.1
-0.8
-2.2
-2.2
-4.2
-4
-6
1.2
-6.3
-6.2
-6.9
-8
-4.9
-7
-9
-10
-12
-10.6
-12
-14
2008
2009
Ireland
2010
Portugal
2011
Euro area
*i.e. correcting for the effect of the business cycle (structural budget deficit)
Source: IMF, Fiscal Monitor, April 2012
2012 (Proj.)
Greece
The fastest fiscal consolidation*
Primary Balance Improvement (percentage points of GDP)
4
Country
Greece
Denmark
Latvia
Portugal
Ireland
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
Austria
UK
Finland
Belgium
Italy
Spain
US
France
Japan
From
2009
1982
2009
2009
1986
1995
1995
1993
1995
1993
1992
1981
1987
1995
1992
1993
1981
min
-10.4
-2.6
-8.2
-7.3
-1.3
-6.0
-3.6
-5.5
-1.8
-4.9
-2.9
-7.4
-3.6
-2.1
-0.9
-3.2
-0.7
To
2011
1986
2011
2011
1989
2000
2000
2000
1997
2000
2000
1990
1993
2001
2000
2000
1991
max
-2.2
11.6
-2.3
-1.6
5.1
4.3
5.6
7.1
1.8
6.3
9.6
4.9
2.6
2.5
5.1
1.4
5.3
Total
8.2
14.2
5.9
5.7
6.4
10.3
9.2
12.6
3.6
11.2
12.5
12.3
6.2
4.6
6.0
4.6
6.0
* Fiscal consolidation episodes as defined in OECD Economic Outlook 81, May 2007
Source: AMECO
Years
2
4
2
2
3
5
5
7
2
7
8
9
6
6
8
7
10
Avg
4.10
3.55
2.95
2.85
2.13
2.06
1.84
1.80
1.80
1.60
1.56
1.37
1.03
0.77
0.75
0.66
0.60
Current Account Deficit declining
5
Current Account
Deficit fell from
14.9% GDP in
2008 to 9.8% GDP
in 2011
Current Account
Deficit (excl. Oil and
Gen. Govnt Net
Interest) in 2011
was around 0%
GDP, down from 6%
GDP in 2008
% GDP
0
0.0
-0.6
-2
-2.3
-1.2
-2.0
-4.0
-3.3
-4
-4.2
-4.2
-4.1
-4.6
-6.0
-5.8
-6
-6.3
-6.5
-7.1
-7.6
-8
-7.2
-7.9
-10
-10.1
-10.5
-11.4
-11.1
-12
-14
-14.6
This demonstrates
the burden of the
debt servicing cost
-9.8
-9.7
-14.9
-16
2003
2004
Current Account
Source: Bank of Greece
2005
2006
2007
Current Account (excl. Oil)
2008
2009
2010
2011
Current Account (excl. Oil & GG Net Interest)
Competitiveness recovering
6
Within two years, 2010-11, Greece managed to regain over 50% of competitiveness lost
during 2000-09
From 2009 to 2011, the Real Effective Exchange Rate (vis-à-vis its 26 EU trade partners),
based on Unit Labor Cost, fell from 114.9 to 107.5 index points
Competitiveness
Recovery (2010-11)
Recovery
Source: European Commission
The 2nd Fastest Changing Economy
7
According to the Euro Plus Monitor, Greece ranks No. 2 in terms of the
degree of adjustment in its economy during 2009-2011
Fastest adjusting Eurozone economies (Adjustment Progress Indicator)
Source: The 2011 Euro Plus Monitor: progress amid the turmoil, The Lisbon Council/Berenberg Bank, November 2011
Greece is changing fast
8
Percentage points
Change in responsiveness to OECD Growth Recommendations, 2008-2011
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
Source: OECD, Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth 2012
Greeks are the hardest working in Europe!
9
Annual total hours worked per person and productivity per hour (2010)
2500
2017
2000
1956
1939
1880
1795
1778
1749
1714
1690
1676
1674 1647
1624
1616
1599
1564
1551 1540
1500
1537
1439
1278
1079
998
1000
812
801
744
570
500
442
418
447
496
570
543
783
846
841
843
582
0
Average hours worked per person
Productivity per hour (USA = 1000)
Source: OECD, StatExtracts: Labour productivity levels in the total economy, 2010
979
870
1413 1408
1278
909
1377
998