Download Global Equities 2004-2006 Strategic Planning Research

Warum sind die Zinsen so niedrig?
Thomas Mayer
(+44) 20 7547 2884
April 2005
IMPORTANT: PLEASE SEE CONFLICT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION IMMEDIATELY AT THE
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INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER THIS REPORT ONLY AS A SINGLE FACTOR IN MAKING THEIR INVEST-MENT
DECISION.
Übersicht
2

“Emerging markets” wandeln sich ab 1998 von internationalen
Kapitalimporteuren zu Kapitalexporteuren

Investitionseinbruch von 2002 reduziert die internationale Kapitalnachfrage der Industrieländer

Ex-ante internationales Überschussangebot an Ersparnis schürt
Deflationsängste und drückt Leit- und Marktzinsen

Sinkende Zinsen treiben Immobilienpreise und stimulieren den
Konsum

Im Markt verbleibende Überschussliquidität und “moral hazard”
verzögern die Zinsanpassung an den weltweiten Konjunkturaufschwung
Emerging markets treten als Exporteure von Ersparnis
auf
Leistungsbilanz
Emerging markets
350
300
250
200
USD
bn
current account balance
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
3
Changes in current account balances (2004-95/97)
bn USD
2004 1995-97 change
United States
-631.3
-119.5
-511.8
Japan
159.4
91.2
68.2
Euro area
72.2
76.0
-3.8
United Kingdom
-43.3
-8.9
-34.4
C.&E. Europe
-44.2
-15.4
-28.8
CIS
61.4
-2.0
63.4
Middle East
103.5
6.3
97.2
Western Hemisphere
9.0
-48.3
57.3
NIC Asia
85.0
2.1
82.9
Developing Asia
68.8
-23.2
92.0
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database
Emerging markets treten als Exporteure von Ersparnis
auf
Spar- und Investitionsquoten
Emerging markets
33
32
% of
GD P
31
s a vin g
30
in ve s tm e n t
29
28
27
26
25
24
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Changes in savings and investment ratios (2004-95/97)
Saving
Investment S-I
United States
-2.7
0.4
-3.1
Japan
-3.0
-4.5
1.5
Euro area
-0.7
-0.7
0.0
United Kingdom
-1.4
-0.1
-1.3
C.&E. Europe
-1.2
-0.5
-0.7
CIS
6.1
-2.2
8.4
Middle East
4.9
0.0
4.9
Western Hemisphere
1.9
-1.6
3.4
NIC Asia
-2.1
-8.1
6.0
Developing Asia
4.7
1.6
3.1
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Data Base
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
4
Kurz darauf brechen die Investitionen in den Industrieländern ein
Ersparnisse in den Emerging
Markets und Investitionen in den
Industrieländern
33
32
% of
GD P
% of GD P
Weltinvestitionsquote und
“Weltrealzins”
23
22
31
5
% of GDP
4.5
24.5
4
30
21
29
24
3.5
23.5
3
28
20
27
23
2.5
22.5
2
26
e m e rg in g m a rke ts s a vin g (lh s )
in d u s tria l co u n try in ve s tm e n t
25
19
18
24
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
US real 10y bond y ields (lhs )
W orld inves tm ent ratio
1.5
22
1
21.5
1995
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
5
25
%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Niedrige Realzinsen treiben Immobilienpreise und
Konsumwachstum
Konsum und Immobilienpreise 2003
OECD 2001-03:
6
real private
consumption 5
% yoy
4
Privater Konsum: 2.2%
New Zealand
Australia
US
3
Canada
UK
Spain
Belgium
Ireland
2 Sw eden
France
Japan
Denmark Italy
1
Sw itzerland
% yoy
0
Germany
house prices
-1
Netherlands
-2
-10
6
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Investitionen:
0.3%
BIP:
1.6%
Unterschiedliche Reaktion auf den Zinsrückgang…
Heimische Nachfrage
6
% yoy
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
US
-2
Japan
-3
Euroland
-4
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Haver, DB Global Markets Research
7
2004
…führt zu Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichten
US nationale Ersparnis fällt stärker als Investition
% of GDP
22.0
20.0
18.0
current account
balance
Gross saving
16.0
Gross investment
14.0
12.0
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
Source: OECD, Haver, DB Global Markets Research
8
Die Unternehmen haben die Niedrigzinsphase zur
Stärkung ihrer Bilanzen genutzt
Unternehmensverschuldung in den G3
63
100
% of
GDP
95
58
53
90
Euroland
Japan
48
9
85
US (rhs)
43
80
38
1997
75
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Gute Gewinne und starke Bilanzen stimulieren die
Investitionskonjunktur, doch Zinsen bleiben niedrig…
G3: BIP Wachstum, Nachfragekomponenten & Zinsen
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Real 10Y bond yields,
G3 average (rhs* )
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
G3 GDP growth (lhs)
G3 gross fixed
capital formation
(lhs)
% yoy
1996
10
4.5
4.0
1998
2000
2002
2004
Forecast
%
2006
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
…u.a. wegen hoher Liquiditätsversorgung und geringer
Risikosensitivität
5.0
Data for the US, Japan, Canada Euroland and the UK
4.5
Real GDP grow th (lhs)
4.0
Real money grow th (rhs)
7
6
5
3.5
4
3.0
3
2.5
2
2.0
1.5
1.0
1986
% yoy, 2-year
moving average
1
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Source: Haver, DB Global Markets Research
11
Die Zentralbanken
haben den Eindruck
vermittelt, dass sie
die Anleger von den
üblichen Risiken
weitgehend entlasten
können (“moral
hazard”).
Die tatsächlichen liegen unter den theoretischen Renditen
DByield: Euroland 10Y rates
9
8
DByield: US 10Y rates
Actual 10Y rates
10
Fitted 10Y rates
9
Actual 10Y rates
Fitted 10Y rates
Current
Current
8
7
7
6
6
5
4
5
DByield trading signal:
short
4
3
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
3
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
DByield: UK 10Y rates
DByield: Japan 10Y rates
13
Actual 10Y rates
12
Actual 10Y rates
8
Fitted 10Y rates
Fitted 10Y rates
7
10
Current
6
9
5
8
4
7
3
5
DByield trading signal:
short
4
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
12
9
11
6
DByield trading signal:
short
2
1
Current
DByield trading
signal: short
0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
Ausblick 2005-06: Robustes Wachstum und steigende Zinsen
Economic Forecast Summary
GDP grow th, %
2004 2005F 2006F
US 4.4
4.1
3.7
Japan 2.6
1.4
2.9
Euroland 1.8
1.6
1.8
Interest Rate Forecast Summary
CPI inflation, %
2004
2.7
0.0
2.1
2005F 2006F
2.5
2.2
0.4
0.8
1.8
1.6
G7
Asia (ex Japan)
EM EA
Latam
3.3
7.9
6.5
6.1
2.8
6.8
5.1
4.4
2.9
6.7
4.3
3.7
2.0
4.4
8.5
6.8
1.8
3.7
7.4
5.8
1.7
3.6
6.4
6.0
Global
4.9
4.1
4.1
3.4
3.0
2.9
Central bank rate, %
Current
US
2.50
Japan 0.00
Euroland 2.00
3M
3.25
0.00
2.00
6M
3.75
0.00
2.25
Current
4.51
1.46
3.71
Source: DB Global Markets Research, as of Mar 16
Source: DB Global M arkets Research
Source: Various statistical offices, DB Global Markets Research
13
12M
4.50
0.00
2.75
10Y yields, %
3M
4.75
1.70
4.00
6M
5.00
2.10
4.20
12M
5.50
2.50
4.70
CERTIFICATION
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the
undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view
in this report. Thomas Mayer.
For disclosures of our potential conflicts pertaining to analyses, recommendations or estimates made in respect of a
security or issuer mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published issuer report or visit our global
disclosure look-up page on our website at http://equities.research.db.com/cgi-bin/compose?PAGE=HOMEPAGE.
____________________________________________________________________________________________
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2004 Deutsche Bank AG REV102104
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