Download Charts - Norges Bank

Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting
11 August 2004
1
Norges Bank
Interest and exchange rate assumptions and projections for the
CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
(CPI-ATE) and the output gap in Inflation Report 2/04. Per cent
10 3
85
90
Krone exchange
rate, I-44 (lefthand scale)
3
8
2
6
1
1
4
0
0
2
-1
-1
0
-2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-2
CPI-ATE
2
95
100
Output gap
Money market rate
(right-hand scale)
105
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Norges Bank
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2
Norges Bank
GDP in the US, the euro area, the UK, Sweden
and Japan. Change on same quarter previous year.
Per cent. 2001 Q1 - 2004 Q2
5
5
US
UK
3
3
Sweden
1
1
Euro area
-2
Japan
-2
-4
2001
-4
2002
2003
2004
Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, Office of National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat, Bureau of
Economic Analysis (US) and Statistics Sweden
3
Norges Bank
Employment1) in the US
Change on previous month in thousands.
Seasonally adjusted. Jan 03 – Jul 04
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
1)
0
-100
-100
-200
-200
-300
Jan 03
-300
Apr 03
Jul 03
Oct 03
Jan 04
Apr 04
Jul 04
Nonfarm payroll
Source: EcoWin
4
Norges Bank
ISM Non-Manufacturing Indices1)
Monthly figures. Diffusion index2). Jan 00 – Jul 04
70
70
Total
60
60
50
50
Employment
component
40
2000
1)
2)
40
2001
2002
2003
2004
The index reflects the business sector's perception of the situation this month compared with previous month
Values of over 50 indicate an increase. Values of less than 50 indicate a decline
Source: EcoWin/National statistics
5
Norges Bank
Core CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area and
the UK. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 - Jun 04
4
3
4
3
US
Euro area
2
2
1
1
UK
0
2001
0
2002
Source: EcoWin/National statistics
2003
2004
6
Norges Bank
Consumer prices in the Nordic countries.
12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 02 – Jun/Jul 04
4
3
4
Denmark
(HICP)
2
1
0
3
Sweden
(UND1X)
UND1X excl.
energy
Finland
(HICP)
2
1
Norway
(CPI-ATE)
-1
0
-1
Jan 02 May 02 Sep 02 Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04
Sources: EcoWin/SN, Statistics Sweden, EUR-OP/Eurostat and Statistics Denmark
7
Norges Bank
Oil price Brent Blend
USD per barrel. Daily figures. Jan 02 - Jun 07
45
45
Futures prices
9 August
40
40
35
35
30
30
Futures prices
4 March (IR 1/04)
25
20
Futures prices
24 June (IR 2/04)
25
20
15
15
10
2002
10
2003
2004
Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
2005
2006
2007
8
Norges Bank
Spot and futures prices (6 – 7 years) for oil in
the US.
Quarterly figures. USD per barrel. 1991 Q1 - 2004 Q31)
45
45
40
Spot price
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
Futures price
15
15
10
10
91
1)
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
Figures for 2004 Q3 are the average for the period 1 Jul – 9 Aug
Source: EcoWin
9
Norges Bank
Effect of a 10-dollar higher oil price on
GDP growth and consumer prices1)
GDP
1)
CPI
2004
2005
2004
2005
US
-0.3
-0.3
0.5
0.6
Japan
-0.4
-0.4
0.3
0.3
Euro area
-0.5
-0.5
0.5
0.6
OECD
-0.4
-0.4
0.5
0.6
China
-0.8
0.8
Percentage deviation from baseline scenario with unchanged oil price of USD 25
Source: IEA
10
Norges Bank
Expected change in key rates according to the
swap market. Aug 04 – Dec 06
3.5
3.0
2.5
3.5
3.0
9 August
US
30 June
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
Norway
1.0
Euro area
0.5
0.0
Aug 04
1.0
0.5
Dec 04
Apr 05
Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
Aug 05
Dec 05
Apr 06
Aug 06
0.0
Dec 06
11
Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
12-month rise. Per cent. Jul 03 – Jul 04. Projections from
Inflation Report 2/04 for Jun 04 – Dec 04 (broken line)
4
4
Goods and services produced in Norway
2
2
CPI-ATE
0
0
-2
-2
Imported consumer goods
-4
-4
-6
-6
Jul 03
Oct 03
Jan 04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Apr 04
Jul 04
Oct 04
12
Norges Bank
Developments in the krone exchange rate1)
(I-44). Daily figures 1 Jan 03 – 10 Aug 04
105
100
1) A
105
I-44
Assumption
IR 2/04
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
Jan 03 Apr 03 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04
80
rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
13
Norges Bank
Index of commodity consumption
1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume. Jan 02 – Jun 04
142
142
139
139
136
136
133
130
2003
130
2004
127
127
2002
124
121
118
Jan
133
124
121
Feb
Mar
Sources: Statistics Norway
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
118
Dec
14
Norges Bank
Exports and imports of traditional goods
Seasonally adjusted volume indices. 1988 = 100.
2000 Q1 – 2004 Q2
250
250
240
240
Exports
230
230
220
220
Imports
210
210
200
200
190
2000
190
Source: Statistics Norway
2001
2002
2003
2004
15
Norges Bank
Imports of traditional goods
Seasonally adjusted volume indices. 2000 Q1 = 100.
2000 Q1 – 2004 Q2
170
170
Fuels, electricity
150
150
Commodities
130
130
Food
110
110
90
90
70
2000
70
Source: Statistics Norway
2001
2002
2003
2004
16
Norges Bank
Imports of traditional goods
Seasonally adjusted volume indices. 2000 Q1 = 100.
2000 Q1 - 2004 Q2
170
170
150
150
130
Processed goods
Machinery and means
of transport
110
110
Chemical products
90
70
2000
Source: Statistics Norway
130
90
70
2001
2002
2003
2004
17
Norges Bank
Business sentiment indicator for manufacturing
Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. 97 Q1 – 04 Q2
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
1997
-10
1998
1999
2000
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2001
2002
2003
2004
18
Norges Bank
Housing starts (number per month) and other building
starts (1000 m2 per month). Trend. Jan 00 - May 04
3000
400
350
2500
Other building starts, 1000 m2
(right-hand scale)
2000
300
250
Housing starts
(left-hand scale)
200
1500
150
1000
2000
Source: Statistics Norway
100
2001
2002
2003
2004
19
Norges Bank
House prices
NEF/ECON (Jan 98 – Jul 04) and SN (98 Q1 – 04 Q2).
Percentage rise on same period previous year
30
30
25
25
20
20
SN
15
15
10
10
NEF
5
5
0
-5
1998
0
-5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Sources: SN, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms
20
Norges Bank
Total debt mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt
distributed between households and non-financial
enterprises (C2). 12-month rise. Jan 97 - Jun 04
18
18
15
15
Credit to households
(C2)
12
12
9
9
6
6
3
Total debt mainland
Norway (C3)
Credit to non-financial
enterprises (C2)
3
0
-3
1997
0
-3
1998
Source: Norges Bank
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
21
Norges Bank
Employment (LFS)
Seasonally adjusted. In 1000s
2320
2320
2310
2310
2300
2300
2002
2290
2290
2280
2280
2270
2270
2260
2004
2003
2250
2240
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Sources: Statistics Norway
2260
2250
Jul
2240
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
22