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Figure 1.01. Growth in the world and
in Sweden
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
Sweden
The world
-6
-6
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.02. Unemployment with
uncertainty bands
Per cent of the labour force
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
90%
75%
2
2
50%
Outcome
Forecast
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical
forecasting errors.
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.03. CPI with uncertainty
bands
Annual percentage change
6
6
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
5
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical
forecasting errors.
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.04. CPIF with uncertainty
bands
Annual percentage change
4
4
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
3
3
Forecast
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical
forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.05. Repo rate with
uncertainty bands
Per cent, quarterly averages
8
8
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
7
6
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future
repo rate. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.
14
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.06. Purchasing managers'
index
Index, seasonally-adjusted data
65
65
Euro area
USA
BRIC
TCW-weighted countries
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
05
06
07
08
Note. TCW refers to a combination of Sweden’s most important trading
partners
09
10
11
Source: Markit Economics
Figure 1.07. Oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel
140
140
Outcome
Futures up to and including 2010-06-29
Futures up to and including 2010-04-12
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent
monthly averages of spot prices.
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the
Riksbank
Figure 1.08. Consumer prices
Annual percentage change
Note: Swedish data refers to CPIF inflation. TCW-weighted international data refers to CPI
or HICP. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 1.9 . GDP in the USA
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
12
12
April
July
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank
Figure 1.10. Comparison of recovery
in Sweden, the euro area and USA
GDP level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100
112
112
USA
Euro area
110
110
Sweden
108
108
106
106
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
92
07
08
09
10
11
Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100.
12
13
14
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat,
SCB and the Riksbank
Figure 1.11. GDP in different regions
and countries
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Sweden
-15
-15
Euro area
USA
-20
-20
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.12. HICP
Annual percentage change
5
5
Sweden
Euro area
United Kingdom
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 1.13. GDP with uncertainty
bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
-4
-6
-8
04
05
06
-4
-6
-8
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the
outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.14. Households’ disposable
incomes, consumption and saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income
7
14
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable income (left scale)
6
12
Saving ratio (right scale)
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.15. Swedish exports and the
world market for Swedish exports
Annual percentage change
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
Swedish exports
Swedish export market
-20
80
85
90
-20
95
Note. The points refer to the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year. The
export market index is defined in the glossary.
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.16. Investments abroad
Index, 2007 =100
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
Norway
Euro area
60
60
United Kingdom
USA
50
50
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: National sources
Figure 1.17. Investment ratio
Per cent of GDP, current prices
24
24
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
80
85
90
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
95
00
05
10
Note. Four-quarter moving average.
Figure 1.18. Labour force and number
of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
5200
5200
Employed, aged 16-64
Labour force, aged 16-64
5000
5000
Employed, aged 15-74
Labour force, aged 15-74
4800
4800
4600
4600
4400
4400
4200
4200
4000
4000
3800
3800
80
85
90
Note. Pre-1987 data have been spliced by the Riksbank.
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.19. Employment and labour force
participation rates
Employment and labour force as a percentage of the population, aged 16-64,
seasonally-adjusted data
86
86
Employment rate
84
84
Labour force participation rate
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
80
85
90
Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.20. Unemployment
Per cent of the labour force
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
Unemployment (outcome)
Forecast based on actual GDP (2010q1-)
5
5
07
08
09
10
11
Note. Estimate based on historical correlation of unemployment and GDP (Okun’s law). Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.21. Proportion of companies
reporting a shortage of labour
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
70
70
Manufacturing industry
Construction sector
60
60
Retail trade
Private sector industries
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: National Insitute of Economic Research
Figure 1.22. Capacity utilisation in
industry
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation
NIER, current capacity utilisation
70
70
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research
and Statistics Sweden
Figure 1.23. GDP-gap and RUindicator
Per cent and standard deviation
6
6
GDP gap (HP)
GDP gap
4
4
RU indicator
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
80
85
90
95
00
05
Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. GDP gap (PF) refers to the
deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0
and the standard deviation is 1.
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.24. Hours gap
Per cent
6
6
Hours gap (HP)
Hours gap
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
80
85
90
95
00
Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott
filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers
of hours worked.
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.25. Wages and wage
expectations
Annual percentage change
7
7
Wages
Wage expectations among the social partners
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
96
98
00
02
04
Note. Refers to wages according to short-term salaries statistics.
06
08
10
12
14
Sources: National Mediation Office, TNS Sifo
Prospera and the Riksbank
Figure 1.26. Profit share in the business
sector
Annual percentage change and gross surplus as share of value added in the
business sector
0.50
10
0.45
8
0.40
6
0.35
4
0.30
2
0.25
0
0.20
-2
Profit share (left scale)
Productivity (right scale)
0.15
-4
Real labour cost per hour (right scale)
0.10
-6
80
85
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
90
95
00
05
10
Note. Labour cost deflated by business sector’s
value-added price
Figure 1.27. Cost pressures in the
economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Productivity
Labour cost per hour
-2
-2
Unit labour cost
-3
-3
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.28. TCW-weighted exchange
rate
Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.29. CPI, CPIF and CPIF
excluding energy
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPIF
CPIF excluding energy
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed interest rate.
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.30. Interest rate cost index in
the CPI
Annual percentage change
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.31. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
April
July
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.01. Hourly labour cost
Annual percentage change
6
6
Higher wage increases
5
5
Main scenario
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.02. CPIF
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
4
4
Wage increases driven by increased
productivity
Wage increases over and above
productivity
Main scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.03. CPI
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Wage increases driven by increased
productivity
Wage increases over and above
productivity
Main scenario
-1
-2
-1
-2
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.04. Unemployment
Per cent of the labour force
9
9
Wage increases driven by increased
productivity
Wage increases over and above
productivity
Main scenario
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.05. Labour productivity
Annual percentage change
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Wage increases driven by
increased productivity
Wage increases over and above
productivity
Main scenario
-4
-6
-4
-6
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.06. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Wage increases driven by increased
productivity
Wage increases over and above productivity
-15
-15
Main scenario
-20
-20
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.07. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
Wage increases driven by increased
productivity
Wage increases over and above
productivity
Main scenario
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.08. GDP abroad
TCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
More severe crisis in public
finances
Main scenario
-8
-8
-10
-10
07
08
09
10
11
TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
12
13
14
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.09. Inflation abroad
TCW-weighted, annual percentage change
4
More severe crisis in public
finances
4
Main scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
07
08
09
10
11
TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
12
13
14
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.10. Interest rate abroad
TCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
More severe crisis in public
finances
Main scenario
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.
12
13
14
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.11. CPIF
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
4
4
More severe crisis in public finances
More severe crisis in public finances with more
expansionary monetary policy
Main scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.12. CPI
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
More severe crisis in public finances
More severe crisis in public finances with more
expansionary monetary policy
Main scenario
-1
-2
-1
-2
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.13. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
More severe crisis in public finances
More severe crisis in public finances with more
expansionary monetary policy
Main scenario
-15
-20
-15
-20
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.14. Unemployment
Per cent of the labour force
9
9
8
8
7
7
More severe crisis in public finances
6
6
More severe crisis in public finances with more
expansionary monetary policy
Main scenario
5
5
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.15. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
More severe crisis in public finances
More severe crisis in public finances with more
expansionary monetary policy
Main scenario
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.16. Repo rate assumptions
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
4
4
Main scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.17. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Higher interest rate
-15
Lower interest rate
-15
Main scenario
-20
-20
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.18. Hours gap
Per cent
3
3
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
2
Main scenario
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.19. Unemployment
Per cent of the labour force
9
9
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.20. GDP gap
Per cent
4
4
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
07
08
09
10
11
Note. Refers to GDP's deviation from trend calculated using a production
function.
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.21. CPIF
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
4
4
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.22. CPI
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Higher interest rate
-1
-1
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
-2
-2
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.01. GDP in Taiwan, South
Korea and China
Annual percentage change
20
20
Taiwan
South Korea
15
15
China
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: National sources
Figure 3.02. Purchasing mangarer’s
index
Index
65
65
China
Singapore
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Markit Economics
Figure 3.03. World Import Volume
World trade monitor Index, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
280
280
World, total
260
260
Advanced economies
Emerging economies
240
240
220
220
200
200
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
Analysis
Figure 3.04. GDP in different regions
and countries
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Sweden
-15
-15
Euro area
USA
-20
-20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat
and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.05. Sales of existing and new
homes in the USA
Index 2000-01-31 = 100
160
160
New
140
140
Existing
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources U.S. Census Bureau and National
Association of Realtors
Figure 3.06. Unemployment in the
USA
Per cent of labour force
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
48
53
58
63
68
73
78
83
88
93
98
03
08
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 3.07. GDP in a selection of
countries in the euro area
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Belgium
Netherlands
Portugal
-10
-10
Germany
France
-15
-15
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Eurostat
Figure 3.08. GDP in Denmark, Finland
and Norway
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Denmark
Norway, including oil
Norway, mainland
Finland
-15
-20
-15
-20
-25
-25
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: National sources
Figure 3.09. Consumer prices
Annual percentage change
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
USA
Euro area
-2
-2
UK
-3
-3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 3.10. Ten year government
bond yield
Per cent
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Sweden
1
1
Euro area (Germany)
USA
UK
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.11. Interest rate differential between countries
with financial problems and Germany, 10-year maturity
Percentage points
16
16
Ireland
14
14
Spain
12
12
Italy
10
8
Portugal
10
Greece
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.12. TCW-weighted exchange
rate
Index, 1992-11-18 = 100
160
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Riksbanken
Figure 3.13. Policy rate expectations
measured in terms of market prices
Per cent
6
6
Sweden 2011-06-22
Sweden 2011-04-20
Euro area 2011-06-22
Euro area 2011-04-20
USA 2011-06-22
USA 2011-04-20
United Kingdom 2011-06-22
United Kingdom 2011-04-20
5
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
08
09
10
11
12
Note. The implied forward rates are adjusted for credit risk and maturity
premiums.
13
14
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 3.14. Repo rate expectations measured
as market prices and surveys in Sweden
Per cent
110
110
GDP
Manufacturing output according to the National Accounts
Services output according to the National Accounts
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
04
05
06
07
Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums
and describe the expected overnight rate.
08
09
10
11
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank
Figure 3.15. Difference between
expected STIBOR and expected repo rate
Percentage points
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
jan-09
jul-09
jan-10
jul-10
Note. The difference between a 3-month forward contract (FRA) starting within 3 months
for an interbank rate (STIBOR) and a forward contract for the repo rate (RIBA).
jan-11
0
jul-11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.16. Variable listed mortgage rate, repo
rate and difference between variable listed
mortgage rate and repo rate
Per cent and percentage points
7
7
Repo rate
Mortgages - averages
6
6
Mortgage spread
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: Reuters EcoWin och Riksbanken
Figure 3.17. Bank lending to
companies and households
Annual percentage change
20
20
Households
Companies
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.18. GDP and production
Index, 2007 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data
110
110
GDP
Manufacturing output according to the National Accounts
Services output according to the National Accounts
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.19. The Economic Tendency
Indicator
Index, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
The Economic Tendency Indicator
Mean
+/- one standard deviation
75
75
70
70
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.20. Retail sales
Volume, index 2005=100, seasonally-adjusted data
125
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.21. Gross fixed capital
formation
Annual percentage change and per cent of gross fixed capital formation in
preceding years
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
Business sector excluding housing
Housing investment
-20
-20
Public authorities
Gross fixed capital formation
-25
-25
04
Source: Statistics Sweden
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Note. The bars represent the respective
contributions to total gross fixed capital
Figure 3.22. Swedish foreign trade
Index, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
160
160
Import of goods
Export of goods
140
140
Swedish export market
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.23. Employment, labour
force and unemployment
Thousands and percentage of the labour force, 15-74 years, seasonally adjusted data
5200
10
Employed (left)
Labour force (left)
Unemployment (right)
5000
8
4800
6
4600
4
4400
2
4200
0
01
02
03
Note. Three-month moving averages.
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.24. Wages according to the National
Accounts and to the short-term wage statistics
Annual percentage change
7
Wages according to the National Accounts
Wages according to the short-term wage statistics, preliminary
Wages according to the short-term wage statistics, definitive
Wages according to the short-term wage statistics, estimate of definitive outcome
6
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. The short-term wage statistics for the last 12 months are preliminary and are usually revised upwards.
The grey dots in the figure show the Riksbank’s assessment of the final outcome according to the statistics.
10
11
Sources: National Mediation Office,
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.25. Wages in the business
sector
Annual percentage change
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Construction sector
Service sector
Industry
1
1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Three-month moving average. Refers to wages according to short-term wage
statistics. Preliminary outcomes for last 12 months, which are usually revised upwards.
07
08
09
10
11
Source: National Mediation Office
Figure 3.26. All respondents' expectations
of inflation one, two and five years ahead
Per cent
4
4
1 year
2 years
5 years
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: TNS SIFO Prospera
Figure 3.27. Expectations of inflation
one year ahead
Per cent
4
4
Households (NIER)
Companies (NIER)
All (Prospera)
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
Note. Household figures are monthly, others quarterly.
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research
and TNS SIFO Prospera
Figure 3.28. CPI, CPIF and CPIF
excluding energy
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPIF
4
4
CPIF excluding energy
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.29. Commodity prices
Index 2005 = 100, USD and USD per barrel
350
175
Food
Metals
300
150
Other agricultural products
Oil (right scale)
250
125
200
100
150
75
100
50
50
25
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: The Economist and Intercontinental Exchange
Figure A01. Yields on government
bonds with 10 years to maturity
Per cent
20
20
USA
UK
18
18
Greece
16
Ireland
14
Portugal
12
Germany
16
Italy
14
Spain
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure A02. Fiscal tightening requirements
Cyclically-adjusted general government net lending excluding interest
expenditure (primary balance) as a percentage of GDP
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
Actual primary balance 2010
Cyclically-adjusted primary balance 2010
-20
-20
Forecast of cyclically-adjusted primary balance 2013
-25
Cyclically-adjusted primary balance 2020-2030
required to achieve a debt ratio of 60% of GDP 2030
-30
-25
-30
USA
UK
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Note. Primary balance = budget balance - net interest income. Cyclicallyadjusted primary balance is primary balance adjusted for cyclical factors.
Portugal
Spain
Belgium
Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor April 2011
Figure A03 . Development of debt
with different primary balances
Percentage of GDP
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
Spain, base scenario
Spain, primary balance 2000-2007
Italy, base scenario
Italy, primary balance 2000-2007
Portugal, base scenario
Portugal, primary balance 2000-2007
60
40
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Note. Base scenario according to the IMF’s budget consolidation strategy to reach a debt
ratio of 60 per cent by 2030. The broken lines represent the debt ratios if the base
24
60
40
26
28
30
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank.
Figure A04 . Development of debt
with different primary balances
Per cent of GDP
160
160
Euro area, base scenario
Euro area, primary balance 2000-2007
USA, base scenario
USA, primary balance 2000-2007
UK, base scenario
UK, primary balance 2000-2007
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Note. Base scenario according to the IMF’s budget consolidation strategy to reach a debt
ratio of 60 per cent by 2030. The broken lines represent the debt ratios if the base
24
26
28
30
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank.
Figure A05 . The development of debt with
a higher interest-growth differential
Per cent of GDP
160
160
Spain, primary balance 2000-2007
Spain, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
Italy, primary balance 2000-2007
140
140
Italy, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Note. The debt ratio of the base scenario’s assumption of the level of the primary balance
in 2020 is replaced by the average for 2000–2007, together with an interest-growth
24
26
28
30
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank.
Figure A06. The development of debt with
a higher interest-growth differential
Per cent of GDP
220
220
Euro area, primary balance 2000-2007
200
Euro area, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
180
USA, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
200
USA, primary balance 2000-2007
180
UK, primary balance 2000-2007
UK, primary balance 2000-2007 and r-g=3
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Note. The debt ratio of the base scenario’s assumption of the level of the primary balance in 2020 is replaced y the average for
2000–2007, together with an interest-growth differential from 2016 of 3 percentage points instead of 1 percentage point.
Sources: The IMF and
the Riksbank
Figure A07. Unit labour costs
Index 2000 = 100
150
150
Germany
Greece
Irland
140
140
Italy
Portugal
Spain
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: OECD
Figure A08. Unemployment, 16-64 years
Per cent of the labour force
12
12
The Riksbank's forecast
Average 30 years
10
10
Average 20 years
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
85
90
95
Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.
00
05
10
Sources: SCB and Riksbanken
Figure A09. CPI
Annual percentage change
16
16
CPI
14
14
Average 1971-1992
Average 1993-2010
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
02
06
10
14
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure A10 . GDP
Annual percentage change
8
8
GDP
Mean 1970-1992
6
6
Mean 1993-2010
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
Source: Stattistics Sweden
Figure A11 . Wages
Whole economy, annual percentage change
10
10
Nominal wage
8
8
Real wage
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
80
85
90
95
Note. Three-year moving average. CPI-deflated real wages.
00
05
10
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics
Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A12 . Employment in different
sectors
Changes compared with second quarter 2008, thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
150
150
Services producers
Public authorities and private education, healthcare, etc.
Agriculture
Manufacturing industry
Construction industry
Total
100
100
50
50
0
0
-50
-50
-100
-100
-150
-150
08
09
10
11
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A13 . Employment in different
sectors
Thousands
2200
2200
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Construction industry
Manufacturing industry including energy
Services producers
Public authorities and private education, healthcare, etc.
2000
1800
2000
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
94
96
98
00
02
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections.
04
06
08
10
12
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A14 . Labour force participation
and employment rate, 15-74 age group
Per cent of the population
74
74
72
72
70
70
68
68
66
66
Labour force participation
64
64
Employment rate
62
62
76
80
84
88
92
96
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data
has been spliced by the Riksbank.
00
04
08
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A15 . Labour force participation
and employment rate, 15-24 age group
Per cent of the population
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
Labour force participation
40
40
Employment rate
35
35
76
80
84
88
92
96
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data
has been spliced by the Riksbank.
00
04
08
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A16 . Labour force participation
and employment rate, 55-74 age group
Per cent of the population
50
50
Labour force participation
Employment rate
46
46
42
42
38
38
34
34
30
30
76
80
84
88
92
96
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data
has been spliced by the Riksbank.
00
04
08
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A17 . Labour force participation
and employment rate, 25-54 age group
Per cent of the population
94
94
92
92
90
90
88
88
86
86
84
84
Labour force participation
82
82
Employment rate
80
80
76
81
86
91
96
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data
has been spliced by the Riksbank.
01
06
11
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A18 . Unemployment
Per cent of labour force
30
30
15-24 years
25-54 years
55-74 years
15-74 years
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
76
80
84
88
92
96
Note. The broken lines represent the Riksbank’s projections. Pre-1987 data
has been spliced by the Riksbank.
00
04
08
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A19. Relationship between
vacancies and unemployment
Per cent of labour force
0.6
0.5
1990
1981
Vacancy rate
0.4
2000
0.3
2010
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
2
4
6
Unemployment
Note. Vacancy data according to Statistics Sweden has been written back with the aid of
statistics from the Swedish Public Employment Service for the period 1981–2000.
8
10
12
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden
and the Riksbank.
Figure A20. Unemployment, 15-74
age group per educational level
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted quarterly data
20
20
Secondary education
Upper-secondary education
18
18
Higher education
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure A21. Unemployment in
different countries
Per cent of labour force
25
25
Germany
Spain
20
20
France
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
Source: Eurostat
Figure A22. Household and corporate inflation
expectations one year ahead and the CPI
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
4
Households (NIER)
Corporate (NIER)
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research
and Statistics Sweden
Figure A23. Social partners, purchasing
managers and money market agents
expectation of inflation 1, 2 and 5 years ahead
Annual percentage change
3.5
3.5
1 year
3.0
2 year
5 year
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
95
97
99
01
03
Note. The responses refer to the average for all respondents.
05
07
09
11
Source: TNS SIFO Prospera
Figure A24. Inflation expectations
estimated using financial instruments
Annual percentage change
7
7
Inflation expectations, 5 years
Nominal short-term interest rate, 5 years
Real short-term interest rate, 5 years
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
Source: The Riksbank
Figure A25. The Riksbank's CPI
forecasts
Annual percentage change
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
CPI
MPR, July 2011
-1
-1
MPU, December 2010
MPR, July 2010
-2
-2
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure A26. CPI and CPIF, forecasts
and projections
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPIF
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Note. The ordinary forecast period runs to the vertical line of September 2014. Beyond the forecast horizon it
is assumed that the CPIF will increase by 2 per cent and that the repo rate will gradually move to 4 per cent.
15
16
Sources: Statistics Sweden
and the Riksbank
Figure A27. The Riksbank's and other
forecasters' forecasts for the CPI
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
The Riksbank
Highest
Average
Lowest
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. The figure shows the annual average for CPI inflation. The points show the highest, lowest and average
of the forecasts of nine different forecasters. For 2013 there are only two forecasts to compare with.
the
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden,
respective forecasters and the Riksbank
Figure A28. The Riksbank's forecasts for the CPI and inflation
expectations according to the social partners, purchasing
managers and money market agents
Annual percentage change
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
CPI
The Riksbank
-1
-1
Social partners
Purchasing managers
Money market agents
-2
06
07
08
09
-2
10
11
12
13
14
Note. The ordinary forecast period runs to the vertical line of September 2014. Beyond the forecast horizon it
is assumed that the CPIF will increase by 2 per cent and that the repo rate will gradually move to 4 per cent.
15
16
Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera,
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Tables
The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the previous Monetary Policy
Update (April 2011).
Table 1. Repo rate forecast
Per cent, quarterly average values
Repo rate
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q3 2012
Q3 2013
Q3 2014
1.7 (1.7)
2.0 (2.0)
2.3 (2.2)
2.9 (2.9)
3.4 (3.4)
3.8
Source: The Riksbank
Table 2. Inflation, annual average
Annual percentage change
2010
2011
2012
2013
CPI
1.2 (1.2)
3.1 (3.2)
2.7 (2.8)
2.8 (2.7)
CPIF
2.0 (2.0)
1.6 (1.6)
1.7 (1.7)
2.1 (2.0)
CPIF excl. energy
HICP
1.5 (1.5)
1.9 (1.9)
1.1 (1.1)
1.6 (1.7)
1.8 (1.7)
1.7 (1.7)
2.1 (2.1)
2.0 (2.0)
Note. The rate of change in the CPI is based on revised index figures, which may differ from the established
Sources:
index figures. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices.
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 3. Summary of financial
forecasts
Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified
Repo rate
10-year rate
Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
General government net lending*
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.5 (0.5)
2.8 (2.8)
129.3 (129.3)
-0.2 (-0.3)
1.8 (1.8)
3.2 (3.5)
120.8 (119.6)
0.9 (1.0)
2.8 (2.8)
3.8 (4.1)
120.2 (120.1)
1.2 (1.4)
3.4 (3.4)
4.3 (4.5)
120.2 (121.1)
1.4 (1.5)
* Per cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 4. International conditions
Annual percentage change
GDP
2010
2011
2012
2013
Euro area (0.14)
1.7 (1.7)
1.9 (1.5)
1.6 (1.6)
2.2 (2.3)
USA (0.20)
Japan (0.06)
2.9 (2.9)
2.3 (2.8)
2.7 (3.0)
3.2 (2.8)
4.0 (4.0)
-0.5 (0.4)
2.8 (2.6)
1.8 (1.8)
OECD (0.55)
2.9 (2.9)
2.1 (2.3)
2.6 (2.6)
2.8 (2.6)
TCW-weighted (0.47)
World (1.00)
1.9 (1.9)
1.7 (1.8)
1.9 (2.0)
2.3 (2.3)
5.0 (4.9)
4.2 (4.3)
4.4 (4.4)
4.5 (4.4)
Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF, 2010.
CPI
Euro area (HICP)
USA
Japan
TCW-weighted
Policy rates in the rest of the world, TCWweighted, per cent
Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent
Swedish export market
2010
2011
2012
2013
1.6 (1.6)
2.7 (2.2)
1.6 (1.5)
1.8 (1.8)
1.6 (1.6)
3.2 (2.5)
2.4 (1.9)
1.7 (2.0)
-0.7 (-0.7)
0.1 (0.0)
0.5 (0.5)
0.7 (0.7)
1.6 (1.6)
2.6 (2.2)
1.8 (1.6)
1.8 (1.8)
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.5 (0.5)
1.0 (1.0)
1.6 (1.8)
2.7 (2.8)
80 (80)
112 (114)
111 (114)
108 (110)
8.8 (8.4)
8.2 (8.3)
6.7 (6.7)
6.4 (6.5)
Note. The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries
which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports.
The weight assigned to a country is its share of Swedish exports of goods.
Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Table 5. GDP by expenditure
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Private consumption
Public consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Inventory investment*
Exports
Imports
GDP
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Final figure for domestic demand*
Net exports*
Current account (NA), per cent of GDP
2010
2011
2012
2013
3.4 (3.5)
2.5 (2.6)
7.1 (6.3)
2.1 (2.1)
11.0 (10.7)
12.8 (12.7)
5.7 (5.5)
5.4 (5.3)
3.7 (3.6)
0.0 (-0.1)
6.2 (6.2)
2.4 (3.0)
1.5 (1.4)
8.7 (10.6)
0.3 (0.1)
9.3 (8.4)
8.3 (7.9)
4.4 (4.6)
4.4 (4.6)
3.1 (3.8)
1.0 (0.8)
6.4 (6.6)
2.2 (2.2)
0.7 (0.5)
6.7 (6.5)
-0.8 (-0.3)
5.5 (5.6)
5.0 (6.0)
2.2 (2.3)
2.6 (2.7)
2.5 (2.4)
0.6 (0.2)
6.7 (6.4)
2.2 (2.2)
0.7 (0.7)
5.6 (5.6)
0.0 (0.0)
5.9 (5.9)
6.5 (6.5)
2.5 (2.5)
2.5 (2.5)
2.3 (2.4)
0.1 (0.1)
6.5 (6.3)
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendaradjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 6. Production and employment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
2010
2011
2012
2013
Population, aged 16-64
Potential hours worked
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Number of hours worked, calendaradjusted
Employed, aged 15-74
0.5 (0.5)
0.3 (0.3)
0.1 (0.1)
0.0 (0.0)
0.9 (0.9)
0.5 (0.5)
0.4 (0.4)
0.3 (0.3)
5.4 (5.3)
4.4 (4.6)
2.6 (2.7)
2.5 (2.5)
1.7 (1.9)
1.7 (1.8)
1.2 (1.2)
0.7 (0.7)
1.0 (1.0)
2.5 (2.5)
1.0 (0.9)
0.5 (0.5)
Labour force, aged 15-74
Unemployment, aged 15-74 *
1.1 (1.1)
1.3 (1.3)
0.3 (0.3)
0.2 (0.2)
8.4 (8.4)
7.4 (7.3)
6.7 (6.7)
6.4 (6.4)
* Per cent of labour force
Note. Potential hours refers to the long-term
sustainable level for the number of hours worked.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 7. Wages and unit labour cost
for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
2010
2.6 (2.7)
2011
2.9 (2.9)
2012
3.3 (3.3)
2013
3.5 (3.6)
Hourly wage, NMO
Hourly wage, NA
Employer’s contribution*
Hourly labour cost, NA
Productivity
1.3 (1.4)
3.9 (3.2)
3.6 (3.4)
3.8 (3.8)
-0.3 (-0.3)
-0.1 (-0.2)
0.1 (0.1)
0.0 (0.0)
1.0 (1.1)
3.8 (3.0)
3.6 (3.5)
3.8 (3.8)
3.6 (3.3)
2.6 (2.8)
1.5 (1.5)
1.8 (1.8)
Unit labour cost
-2.5 (-2.2)
1.1 (0.2)
2.1 (1.9)
1.9 (2.0)
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.
Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National
Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages, collective charges and
wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total number of hours worked. Unit labour cost
is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices.
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 8. Alternative scenario: wage
increases over and above productivity
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Hourly labour cost
CPIF
CPI
Unemployment, per cent
Labour productivity
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Repo rate, per cent
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
2011
2012
2013
3.8 (3.8)
1.6 (1.6)
3.1 (3.1)
7.4 (7.4)
2.6 (2.6)
4.4 (4.4)
1.8 (1.8)
3.9 (3.6)
2.0 (1.7)
3.1 (2.7)
6.8 (6.7)
1.5 (1.5)
2.5 (2.6)
2.9 (2.8)
4.8 (3.8)
2.5 (2.1)
3.3 (2.8)
7.1 (6.4)
2.0 (1.8)
2.1 (2.5)
3.6 (3.4)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 9. Alternative scenario: wage
increases driven by increased productivity
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Hourly labour cost
CPIF
CPI
Unemployment, per cent
Labour productivity
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Repo rate, per cent
2011
2012
2013
3.8 (3.8)
1.6 (1.6)
3.1 (3.1)
7.4 (7.4)
2.6 (2.6)
4.4 (4.4)
1.8 (1.8)
3.9 (3.6)
1.7 (1.7)
2.6 (2.7)
6.6 (6.7)
2.3 (1.5)
3.4 (2.6)
2.8 (2.8)
4.8 (3.8)
1.9 (2.1)
2.6 (2.8)
6.0 (6.4)
3.0 (1.8)
4.1 (2.5)
3.4 (3.4)
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 10. Alternative scenario: more
severe crisis in public finances
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
GDP abroad
Inflation abroad
Interest rate abroad, per cent
CPIF
CPI
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Unemployment, per cent
Repo rate, per cent
2011
2012
2013
1.6 (1.7)
2.5 (2.6)
0.7 (1.0)
1.5 (1.6)
3.3 (3.1)
3.9 (4.4)
7.4 (7.4)
1.7 (1.8)
0.4 (1.9)
1.0 (1.8)
0.8 (1.6)
1.0 (1.7)
1.2 (2.7)
1.4 (2.6)
7.3 (6.7)
1.8 (2.8)
1.6 (2.3)
0.5 (1.8)
1.2 (2.7)
1.1 (2.1)
1.1 (2.8)
2.9 (2.5)
7.2 (6.4)
1.9 (3.4)
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 11. Alternative scenario: more severe crisis in public
finances with more expansionary monetary policy
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
GDP abroad
Inflation abroad
Interest rate abroad, per cent
CPIF
CPI
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Unemployment, per cent
Repo rate, per cent
2011
2012
2013
1.6 (1.7)
2.5 (2.6)
0.7 (1.0)
1.5 (1.6)
3.3 (3.1)
3.9 (4.4)
7.4 (7.4)
1.6 (1.8)
0.4 (1.9)
1.0 (1.8)
0.8 (1.6)
1.3 (1.7)
1.1 (2.7)
1.9 (2.6)
7.1 (6.7)
1.1 (2.8)
1.6 (2.3)
0.5 (1.8)
1.2 (2.7)
1.5 (2.1)
1.8 (2.8)
3.2 (2.5)
6.7 (6.4)
1.6 (3.4)
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 12. Alternative scenario: higher
interest rate
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Repo rate, per cent
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Hours gap, per cent
Unemployment, per cent
GDP gap, per cent
CPIF
CPI
2011
2012
2013
2.0 (1.8)
4.4 (4.4)
-0.7 (-0.7)
7.4 (7.4)
-0.7 (-0.6)
1.5 (1.6)
3.2 (3.1)
3.0 (2.8)
2.5 (2.6)
-0.1 (0.1)
6.8 (6.7)
0.0 (0.2)
1.6 (1.7)
2.6 (2.7)
3.4 (3.4)
2.5 (2.5)
0.2 (0.4)
6.6 (6.4)
0.4 (0.6)
2.0 (2.1)
2.6 (2.8)
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 13. Alternative scenario: lower
interest rate
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, annual average
Repo rate, per cent
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Hours gap, per cent
Unemployment, per cent
GDP gap, per cent
CPIF
CPI
2011
2012
2013
1.7 (1.8)
4.5 (4.4)
-0.7 (-0.7)
7.3 (7.4)
-0.6 (-0.6)
1.6 (1.6)
3.1 (3.1)
2.6 (2.8)
2.8 (2.6)
0.2 (0.1)
6.6 (6.7)
0.5 (0.2)
1.9 (1.7)
2.8 (2.7)
3.4 (3.4)
2.5 (2.5)
0.5 (0.4)
6.3 (6.4)
0.9 (0.6)
2.1 (2.1)
2.9 (2.8)
Note. The figures in parentheses show the forecast in the main scenario.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank