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Norges Bank
Executive Board Meeting
22 September 2004
1
Norges Bank
Interest and exchange rate assumptions and projections for the CPI adjusted
for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) and the output gap
in Inflation Report 2/04. Per cent
10 3
85
90
Krone exchange
rate, I-44 (lefthand scale)
3
8
2
6
1
1
4
0
0
2
-1
-1
0
-2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-2
CPI-ATE
2
95
100
Output gap
Money market rate
(right-hand scale)
105
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Norges Bank
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2
Norges Bank
GDP growth
Growth in volume from previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted
2
2
US
1.5
1.5
1
1
0.5
0.5
UK
Sweden
Japan
0
0
Euro area
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-1
2002
2003
2004
Sources: EcoWin / US Dept. of Commerce, SCB, National
Statistics, EUR-OP / EUROSTAT and Norges Bank
2002
2003
2004
3
Norges Bank
Yields on 10-year government bonds
1 Jan 04 – 20 Sep 04
5.0
5.0
Norway
4.5
4.5
Germany
4.0
US
Since
previous
monetary
policy
meeting
3.5
3.0
Jan
4.0
3.5
3.0
Feb
Mar
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
4
Norges Bank
PMI Manufacturing in the US1), the euro area and
Sweden. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures
65
65
Euro area
60
Sweden
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
US
40
40
35
1998
35
1) ISM,
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Manufacturing
Sources: EcoWin / ISM-Institute for Supply Management, NTC Research Ltd. and Swedbank / I&L
5
Norges Bank
Core CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area and the UK
12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Aug 04
4
3
2
4
3
US1)
Euro area
US2)
2
1
1
UK
0
2001
1)
0
2002
2003
2004
CPI 2) Personal consumption expenditure deflator, excluding food and energy
Source: EcoWin / National statistics
6
Norges Bank
Interest rate expectations
Actual developments and expected key rate on 20 September
6
6
5
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mar-03
4
UK
Sweden
3
Euro area
2
US
1
0
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
7
Norges Bank
Oil price Brent Blend
USD per barrel. Daily figures. Jan 02 – Jul 07
45
45
16 September
40
11 August
40
35
35
30
30
Futures prices 24
June (IR 2-04)
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
2002
0
2003
Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
2004
2005
2006
2007
8
Norges Bank
Real oil price in 2004 USD1) and nominal oil price
Deflated by US CPI. Monthly figures. Brent Blend in dollars per barrel
120
120
100
100
Oil price in 2004 USD
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
Nominal oil price
0
1970
1)
0
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
The nominal oil price is deflated by mean CPI in the US in the period Jan 04 – Jul 04
Sources: EcoWin / Bureau of Labor Statistics and Norges Bank
9
Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
12-month rise. Per cent. Jul 03 – Aug 04
Projections from Inflation Report 2/04 Jun 04 – Dec 04 (broken line)
4
2
4
Goods and services produced in Norway
2
CPI-ATE
0
0
-2
-2
Imported consumer goods
-4
-4
-6
-6
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
10
Norges Bank
Expert projections of consumer price inflation
Per cent. Quarterly figures. Q2 2002 – Q3 2004
4
4
3
2
3
In 5 years
In 2 years
2
1
1
0
Jun-02
0
Source: TNS Gallup
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
11
Norges Bank
Developments in the krone exchange rate1) (I-44)
Daily figures. 1 Jan 02 – 21 Sep 04
85
85
90
90
95
95
100
100
Since previous monetary
policy meeting
105
Jan-02
1) A
105
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
12
Norges Bank
Expected change in key rates according to the swap
market and expected difference against the mean of
trading partners’ key rates. Sep 04 – Dec 06
4
4
20 September
3
3
10 August
Expected key rate
2
2
1
1
Expected difference against the mean
of trading partners’ key rates
0
0
-1
Aug-04
-1
Dec-04
Apr-05
Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
13
Norges Bank
GDP Mainland Norway
Change from previous quarter. Contribution to volume growth in
percentage points. Seasonally adjusted
6
6
Private consumption
Private investment
Changes in stocks and stat. discr.*
GDP Mainland Norway
Public consumption
Public investment
Net exports Mainland Norway*
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
01:4
02:1
02:2
02:3
02:4
03:1
03:2
03:3
03:4
04:1
04:2
*Norges Bank estimates
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
14
Norges Bank
Main economic aggregates in quarterly national accounts and
projections in Inflation Report 2/04
Annual growth 2004
Projections in IR
2/2004
Growth from first
half-year in 2003
to first half-year in
2004
GDP Mainland Norway
3½
3,7
Private consumption
5¼
4,9
Gross investments Mainland Norway
3¾
2,4
Petroleum investment
10
11,6
Traditional exports
5¼
2,5
Imports
7½
6,0
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
15
Norges Bank
Index of commodity consumption
1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume. Jan 02 – Jul 04
142
142
139
139
136
136
133
133
2004
2003
130
130
2002
127
127
124
124
121
121
118
Jan
Feb
Source: Statistics Norway
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
118
Dec
16
Norges Bank
Estimated and accrued investment costs for oil and
gas extraction and pipeline transport
In millions of NOK
90000
90000
80000
80000
2005
2004
70000
2003
70000
60000
60000
50000
2002
50000
40000
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
May
Aug
Previous year
Source: Statistics Norway
Nov
Feb
May
Aug
Current year
Nov
Feb
Final figures
17
Norges Bank
Employment (LFS)
Seasonally adjusted. In 1000s
2,320
2,320
2,310
2,310
2,300
2,300
2,290
2,290
2002
2,280
2,270
2,260
2,280
2,270
2004
2,250
2003
2,260
2,250
2,240
2,240
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Statistics Norway
18
Norges Bank
Registered unemployed and job vacancies
Seasonally adjusted. Jan 98 – Aug 04
1,500
120,000
Job vacancies, trend (left-hand scale)
105,000
1,200
90,000
75,000
900
60,000
600
Registered unemployed (right-hand scale)
45,000
30,000
300
15,000
0
1998
0
1999
2000
Source: The Directorate of Labour
2001
2002
2003
2004
19
Norges Bank
House prices
NEF/ECON (Jan 98 – Aug 04) and SN (98 Q1 – 04 Q2)
Percentage rise on same period previous year
30
30
25
25
20
20
SN
15
15
NEF
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
1998
-5
1999
2000
2001
2002
Sources: Statistics Norway (SN), Norwegian Association of Real
Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms
2003
2004
20
Norges Bank
Commercial property prices
Price per m2 per year in NOK. 1997 – June 2004
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2500
Oslo high standards
2000
Oslo good standards
1500
Bergen
1000
Stavanger
500
Trondheim
0
0
1997
1998
1999
Sources: OPAK and Dagens Næringsliv
2000
2001
2002 Jun-03 Nov-03 Jun-04
21
Norges Bank
Housing starts and other building starts. 1000 m2 per month.
Trend. Jan 00 – Jun 04
400
400
350
350
Other building starts
(right-hand scale)
300
300
250
200
250
Housing starts
(left-hand scale)
200
150
150
100
2000
100
Source: Statistics Norway
2001
2002
2003
2004
22
Norges Bank
Domestic debt, total and distributed between
households and non-financial enterprises (C2)
12-month rise. Aug 01 - Jul 04
15
15
C2 households
12
9
12
9
C2 total
6
6
C2 non-financial
enterprises
3
3
0
0
-3
-3
Aug01
Dec01
Source: Norges Bank
Apr02
Aug02
Dec02
Apr03
Aug03
Dec03
Apr04
23
Norges Bank
Prices for imported consumer goods
Total and selected groups. 12-month rise. Per cent
6
6
3
Household appliances
3
Cars
0
0
-3
-3
Imported consumer goods
-6
-9
-6
-9
Audiovisual equipment
-12
-12
Clothing and footwear
-15
Jan-01
-15
Jul-01
Jan-02
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
24
Norges Bank
Prices for goods and services produced in Norway
12-month rise. Per cent
6
6
5
5
Services with wages
as a dominant factor
4
House rent
3
2
1
4
3
Consumer goods
produced in
Norway
2
1
0
0
-1
-1
Other services
-2
-2
-3
Jan-02
-3
Jul-02
Jan-03
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
25