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Transcript 
The 2015 Economy
Looking for the Yellow Brick Road
Bruce Yandle
[email protected]
South Carolina & the Nation
Are We on the Yellow Brick Road?
Optimism & Complications
Top 15 State Population Growth
4/2010 - 7/2014
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
4.48%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
2.39%
Top 15 State Population Growth
4/2010 - 7/2014
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
2.39%
S.C. Population Growth, 1990 - 2010
Cherokee
York
Spartanburg
Pickens
Greenville
Oconee
Union
Lancaster
Chester
Chesterfield
Anderson
Marlboro
Laurens
Dillon
Fairfield
Kershaw
Newberry
Darlington
Abbeville
Greenwood
Lee
Florence
Richland
Saluda
Mccormick
Marion
Horry
Lexington
Sumter
Edgefield
Clarendon
Calhoun
Williamsburg
Aiken
Georgetown
Orangeburg
Barnwell
Bamberg
Berkeley
Dorchester
Allendale
Colleton
Hampton
Charleston
Jasper
Beaufort
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
88.0%-41.0%
20% - 13%
40% - 21%
12% - 0.1%
Negative
Employment Growth, 4Q2012 - 4Q2013
Cherokee
York
Spartanburg
Pickens
Greenville
Oconee
Union
Lancaster
Chester
Chesterfield
Anderson
Marlboro
Laurens
Dillon
Fairfield
Kershaw
Newberry
Darlington
Abbeville
Greenwood
Lee
Florence
Richland
Saluda
Mccormick
Marion
Horry
Lexington
Sumter
Edgefield
Clarendon
Calhoun
Williamsburg
Aiken
Georgetown
Orangeburg
Barnwell
Bamberg
Berkeley
Dorchester
Allendale
Colleton
Hampton
Charleston
Jasper
Beaufort
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
17.6%-6%
2.4% - 1.3%
5.1% - 2.6%
1.1% - 0.1%
Negative
Employment Growth: U.S.
Year/Year 2011-2014
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2011
2012
2013
14Q1
U.S.
14Q2
14Q3
S.C. Per Capita Personal Income
2000 - 2013
$38,000
$36,000
$34,000
$32,000
$30,000
$28,000
$26,000
$24,000
$22,000
$20,000
S.C. Per Capita Personal Income
2000 - 2013
$40,000
$38,000
$36,000
$34,000
$32,000
$30,000
$28,000
$26,000
$24,000
$22,000
$20,000
U.S. Average
1.7%.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/is-your-state-a-net-giver-or-taker-of-federal-taxes/
I think we are
on the Yellow
Brick Road…,
but I am a bit
nervous!
How’s the
U.S. economy
doing?
4.0
Rate
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
2000-01-01
2000-06-01
2000-11-01
2001-04-01
2001-09-01
2002-02-01
2002-07-01
2002-12-01
2003-05-01
2003-10-01
2004-03-01
2004-08-01
2005-01-01
2005-06-01
2005-11-01
2006-04-01
2006-09-01
2007-02-01
2007-07-01
2007-12-01
2008-05-01
2008-10-01
2009-03-01
2009-08-01
2010-01-01
2010-06-01
2010-11-01
2011-04-01
2011-09-01
2012-02-01
2012-07-01
2012-12-01
2013-05-01
2013-10-01
2014-03-01
2014-08-01
Real GDP Growth
1Q2000 - 4Q2014
(4-Quarter Moving Average)hart Title
10.0
8.0
6.0
3.14%
2.0
0.0
U.S. GDP GROWTH
Recent Forecasts
2015
Conference Board
2.6%
Congressional Budget Office
3.4
IMF
3.6
Moody’s Analytics
3.2
Federal Reserve Bank of Phila
3.4
Federal Reserve Board
2.3-2.7
Wells Fargo
2.7
Expect 2.5% to 3.0% real
GDP growth, 2014-2018.
Recession in 2019.
3.14%
The Sharing Economy
More Reasons for Optimism
1970s
1980s
2008
1990s
QUESTIONS?
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