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Is China’s Economy Recovering?
Albert Keidel
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
April 29, 2009
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A Boxed Presentation of GDP Growth Trends
20
18
GDP Growth, Percent y-o-y
16
14
13%
12
10
9%
8
6
4
2
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
Annual
2
2006
2008
Steep y-o-y Descent – Will it Continue?!
20
18
GDP Growth, Percent y-o-y
16
13.8%
13%
14
12
10
9%
8
7.0%
6
6.1%
4
2
0
1998
2000
Annual
3
2002
2004
2006
2008
Quarterly (y-o-y)
Seasonally Adjusted Quarter-on-Quarter Data Show a Lift
20
19.4%
GDP Growth, Percent
18.2%
18
16
13.8%
13%
14
12
10
9%
8
7.0%
6
6.1%
3.7%
4
2.1%
2
0
1998
Annual
4
2000
2002
2004
Quarterly (y-o-y)
2006
2008
Quarterly (SA Q-o-Q)
“Secondary” (Industry + Construction) Remained Weak
Quarterly GDP by Sector (% YoY)
GDP
Primary Secondary
2008 Qtr-1 10.6
2.8
11.5
Qtr-2 10.2
4.0
11.1
Qtr-3
9.0
5.7
9.2
Qtr-4
7.0
7.4
6.2
2009 Qtr-1
6.1
3.5
5.3
5
Tertiary
10.9
10.5
10.1
7.4
7.4
Real Expenditure Information is Worrisome
GDP Expenditure Growth, 2009 Q-1
Contribution Growth
(Percentage
Rates
Points)
(Percent)
Consumption
4.3
7.2
Investment
2.0
6.7
Net Trade
-0.2
-2.0
Total
6.1
6.1
6
Rough GDP Expenditure Possibilities 2009
Year-on-year % growth
Rural Household Consumption
Urban Household Consumption
Government Consumption
Fixed Asset Investment
Inventory Change
Exports
Imports
Net Exports
Total GDP
2008
2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009
9
11
12
-5
6
7
9
12
6
8
3
10
10
6
6
7
9
12
7
8
8
6
6
9
11
12
16
18
7
14
15
12
13
11
7
11
13
15
12
12
0
-5 -10 -15 -20
-5
12
12
-8
0
21
30
17
4 -26 -12
-6
5
17
-9
23
27
22
15 -31
-8
5
18
21
-3
11
46
2 -34
-2 -27 -37 -52
-1 -31
10.6 10.2 9.0 7.0 6.1 6.7 7.0 10.2 9.0 7.6
• If China’s trade surplus were to drop by roughly a
third in 2009, domestic demand would have to
grow 11 % to achieve 7.6% GDP growth.
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The End
Thank you
Albert Keidel
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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