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INCREDIBLE INDIA: A BILLION OPPORTUNITIES by Susmita G Thomas Ambassador of India Turkey June 13, 2013 IMPORTANT PARAMETERS: INDIA’S STORY India Story Turkey Construction & Furniture WHAT IS THE INDIA STORY? Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new! It is continuing for over 25 years TODAY’S INDIA….IS AN EMERGING ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE Straddles traditional Sea routes through Indian Ocean connecting Asia / Europe / Middle East Enjoys relatively high cost arbitrage for manufacturing & services industries in developed world Fast -growing educated motivated young population (urban and rural) ; median age 27 yrs; consumption well below optimum levels India among Top 15 countries in terms of GDP at constant prices Third largest economy in the world in terms of GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) (After US & China) India has recently overtaken Japan in 2013 (GDP – PPP) Has huge manpower base (1.2 bn) , diversified natural resources & relatively strong macro-economic fundamentals 28 YEARS OF GROWTH (%) Average annual GDP growth 10 8.9 8 6.0 6 3.5 4 2 1.0 0 1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007 GDP growth forecast in 2012-13 is 6.0% & 201314 at 7.2% POPULATION GROWTH IS SLOWING (%) 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0 1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Madison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001) POPULATION IS TURNING MIDDLE CLASS! 22% (m) 32% 8% 400 368 300 200 220 100 0 65 1980 2000 Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002 2011 POVERTY IS CONSISTENTLY DECLINING (%) 50 40 1% of India’s population(10 million) has been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years 46 30 26 20 16 10 0 1980 2000 2010 Equals ~ 250m PER CAPITA INCOME HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INCREASING! US$ ppp 1,178 1980 3,650 Source: World Bank 2012 LITERACY IS RISING (%) 100 80 80 65 52 60 40 17 20 0 1950 Source: Census of India (2001) 1990 2000 2010 WHERE DO WE STAND TODAY? Growth fell to 6.7% in 08-09; 7% in 09-10, still 6% in 2012 GDP growth predicted at 6.9 to 7.2% in 2013-2014 Growth is still in positive integers Pain has been less than in China Competitive companies have recovered faster. Risk of protectionism has receded Recovery has been among the global front-runners HUGE CHANGES HAVE TAKEN PLACE SINCE ECONOMIC REFORMS IN 1991… Consistent economic growth of 8-9% in recent years • 8.5% in 2010-11 and 6.9% in 2011-12 • Growth likely to return to 9% by 2013-14 Strong Balance of Payments • Strong Balance of Payments leading to steady accumulation of India’s foreign exchange reserves $318.4 billion (Oct 2011) Stable Foreign Exchange Reserves • Enhanced economic performance has been major contributor towards increased Forex reserves Offer adequate security against currency crisis and monetary instability INDIA CONTINUES ON THIS PATH OF DRAMATIC GROWTH … AS A RESULT INDIA WILL EMERGE AS A “TOP 4” WORLD ECONOMIES BY 2025 (GDP US$ BN) INDIA HAS UNPRECEDENTED RISE IN EXTERNAL TRADE …. • • • • • Strong domestic consumption linked with buoyant international trade in goods & services . (52 % growth 2011-12) @US$160 Bn exports Indian products with cost advantage adds an edge to Indian companies Imports by India include petroleum products, minerals machinery and electronic goods India ranks 21 in leading global exporters (2009) & 14 among global importers In commercial services trade India is at 12th rank in global exporters India exported 87 bn $ of commercial services in 2009 INDIA NOW IS AN ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT DESTINATION… •FDI inflow for the period April 2000- August 2011 reached $ 219billion •UNCTAD’s World Investment Prospects Survey 2010-12 ranks India second most favored investment destination (after China, Brazil, United States & Russian Federation) •Singapore (9%), USA (7%), UK (5%), Netherlands (4%), Cyprus (4%), Japan (4%), Germany, France & UAE are among the top ten investors •Ranked third in A.T. Kearney FDI Confidence Index 2010 •Construction (including Roads & Highways, Housing & Real Estate) are among sectors attracting high FDI equity (7%) INDIA NOW ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT DESTINATION…. RISE OF GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE PRIVATE COMPANIES THE ECONOMY IS GROWING EVEN IN REAL, NONTRADTIONAL WAYS! GLOBALLY RANKED HUMAN RESOURCES SKILLED ENGLISH SPEAKERS “By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” Professor David Crystal Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language WHERE ARE WE GOING? India no. 2 in 2050 India’s GDP will exceed that of Italy, France, Germany & Japan by 2040 PER CAPITA INCOME On a ppp basis ($000) 37,000 40 30 20 16,800 5,800 10 2,100 3,050 0 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066 INDIA WILL BE MORE MIDDLE CLASS WITH INCREASED PURCHASING POWER West of the KanpurChennai line East of the KanpurChennai line 50% 50% 2020 2040 32% 22% 8% 1980 2000 2010 Kanpur- HIGH NET WORTH INDIVIDUALS 20.5% & GROWING HOW THE WORLD VIEWS INDIA COMPARING INDIA & TURKEY Parameter India Turkey Factor Population millions 1240 78 15.9x Population growth % 1.4% 1.19% 1.17x Area million sq kms 3.29 0.78 4.21x GDP Billion US$ 1850 773 2.4x GDP growth 2011-12 6.9% 8.5% 0.81x Inflation rate 2011-12 9.55% 6.33% 1.51x Labor force millions 487 27 18x FDI 2011-12 Bn US$ 46.8 15.7 3x Per capita USD 1388 10362 0.134x US$1= 55 INR 1.78 TRY TRADE VARIED, INDEPENDENT OF ANY ONE OR VOLATILE ITEM, TOUCHED US$7 BILLION IN 2011…. RELATIONS ROBUST, STRONGER TRADE LINKS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HUGE ECONOMIC GROWTH… Political • Tradition of Presidential / Prime Ministerial visits • Broad alignment on all global issues • Robust joint forums exist to further causes • FTA being finalized at highest levels Commercial • Bilateral trade is varied and not biased or dependent on any specific commodities Trade • India has signed Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with SAARC, ASEAN , Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Bhutan (amongst others) • FTA with Turkey is currently under discussion. SECTOR SNAPSHOTS: CONSTRUCTION & FURNITURE CONSTRUCTION COMPETITIVENESS OF INDIA'S INFRASTRUCTURE LAGS BEHIND GLOBAL BENCHMARKS… Roads Quality Rail Road Quality OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS OF INDIA'S INFRASTRUCTURE Quality of overall infrastructure POTENTIAL PVT SECTOR IN INFRASTRUCTURE IS SIGNIFICANT IN NEXT 10 YEARS… Planning Commission Data on Infrastructure Investment in India Parameter 10th Plan 200207 11th Plan 2007-12 12th Plan 201217 Infrastructure Spending US$225 Bn US$ 500 Bn US$ 1 trillion 127% 100% Growth over prev plan THUS CREATING SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR PVT SECTOR IN XIITH PLAN 2014-17…. Sector Planned Power generation 100 GW Highways 57,000 kms Power 10 UMPPS, total 100 GW Renewable Solar Energy 22,000 MW by 2022 Wind energy 49,000 MW by 2022 Railways MRTS in major cities and 22 stations in PPP Ports 24 capacity expansion projects, mega container terminals, mechanized berth Airports 18 new ones on EPC basis Oil & Gas 60.3 MMTPA refining capacity. 26.3 MMTPA LNG capacity RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR…. National Highway Dev Program Expressways State Highway Development Remaining NHs 20527 6,355 10,000 20,529 Total 57,411 CONSTRUCTION ADVANTAGE INDIA The Indian construction industry has been on a high growth trajectory for more than a decade, led by buoyancy in sectors such as real estate and infrastructure. The Union Budget 2012-13 has allocated US $883 billion (INR 50 Lakh crore) to the infrastructure sector, reflecting the Government of India (GoI)’s strong focus on the development of India’s infrastructure. High growth in construction sectors Availability of skilled manpower Strong government focus India produces more than 0.4 million engineers every year. Moreover, India’s cost of skilled labour is the lowest in the world, with an entry-level engineer available at an average cost of about US$ 8,000 per annum. Advantage India Government expenditure on infrastructure is likely to result in increased construction expenditure of nearly US$ 253. 94 billion (INR 12,189 billion) between 2008–09 and 2012–13). High growth potential Easy availability of raw material Modern technology India is the fifth-largest producer of crude steel in the world (2008), with a production volume of 54.5 million tonnes. OVERVIEW OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY…. Construction sector has been growing at CAGR of 11.1% over the last eight years consistently Construction sector accounts for 9% of GDP today All values in Billion USD PROPOSED INVESTMENTS IN MAJOR SECTORS IN 2012-17 REQUIREMENTS OF HUMAN RESOURCES FOR CONSTRUCTION BY 2022…. Category No. of million man years required Engineers 3.72 Technicians 4.32 Support Staff 3.65 Skilled Workers 23.35 Unskilled/ semiskilled workers 56.96 Total manpower 92 To sustain the growth of construction India needs an additional 4 million workforce CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS • • • • • • • Increased Government expenditure on infrastructure will result in increased construction expenditure of ~ US$ 253.94 billion in 2008–13. Growth of construction materials industry directly linked to Indian economy, growing with investments in infrastructure/ related sectors. Construction equipment market divided into 4: - earth-moving equipment, material-handling equipment and cranes, concrete equipment and road-building equipment. 200 Indian manufacturers service construction equipment market. Production of cranes &lifts/escalators is to rise by 20.3% and 11.9%, respectively in 2012-13 Equipment sales expected to grow by 26% over previous year. Currently, the equipment market is largely import driven, with India importing construction machinery worth US $181 million in 2009, up by 55 per cent over 2008. BASE COSTS OF CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS…. INDIRECT TAXES…. CONSTRUCTION – POLICY AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK •The GoI has permitted 100 per cent FDI in construction and development projects to attract more investment. Some of the key specifications are US$ 2 million limit on lump sum payments under the automatic route. •Royalty to be levied as 5 per cent on domestic sales and 8 per cent on exports, net of taxes. •The depreciation on general plant and machinery is proposed at about 15 per cent. •Specific initiatives by the GoI that positively impact the engineering sector are Tariff protection on capital goods has been removed. •Various initiatives are focussed on infrastructure development and construction. •The GoI has also introduced initiatives to increase power generation and improve the quality of power supply. •Custom duties on various equipment have been reduced. CONSTRUCTION - OPPORTUNITIES •The roads and bridges sector will continue to be a major demand driver for the construction industry, with the National Highway Development Program (NHDP) expected to generate orders worth US$ 55 billion over the next five years. •In addition, the maintenance of national and state highways and other roads is likely to create demand for road construction and maintenance-related equipment and materials. •Increased government focus on the development of greenfieldports and airports and capacity expansion at existing ports is expected to maintain a consistent demand for construction equipment and materials. •Other demand drivers include water and irrigation projects, urban infrastructure development, urban transportation projects, and water supply and sanitation projects. •Capacity expansion in the steel, cement, oil refining and power sectors to meet growing infrastructure investments in India, is also expected to generate demand for construction equipment. •The equipment rental business is another opportunity driver, with the industry expected to double in size to 16 per cent by 2015. •The export opportunity is expected to grow on the back of rising cost pressures on developed countries and due to the emergence of low-cost competitive suppliers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in India. FURNITURE FURNITURE: TWO SECTORS Office Furniture Market size US$ 1.2 billion, 70% Organized Growing 15-20% in 2007-08 Home Furniture Market size US$ 8 billion10% organized; 90% not Growing at 10-12%. Negligible entry/exit barriers Duties on medium density fiber boards; none on finished goods of same Raw material is easily available like solid wood, particle board, ply wood ; Investment needed for improving manufacturing facilities Market requires trendy designs; products suited to lifestyle: Finished goods imported from far East & Europe Market price sensitive Green furniture is upward trend in B2B segment as move towards LED certified / Green buildings Consumer appreciates functionality , design and novel color combos Aesthetics & functionality important factors for consumer choice FURNITURE: THE FUTURE Favorable outlook : large size, evolving westernized tastes, middle class population of 400 million+; increasing purchasing power, CSIL Milano ranks India as one of 14 largest furniture markets in the world Total furniture market @US$ 9.2 billion, growing at 30% CAGR(organized sector =15% of whole industry) Branded furniture market, residential & commercial valued at US$1.3 billion(2008)Expected US$3.7 billion in 2013 (KPMG report) Currently only 10,500 furniture importers Main imports from Italy, Germany, Spain and Malaysia. 100% foreign ownership in Indian single brand retail ventures allowed: importers require no prior license or permission, need valid IEC (Import Export Code from DGFT) foreign brands like IKEA are entering India Turkey with intricate wood-work invited to enter the lucrative Indian market: similarity of designs & tastes will give Turkey an edge over others in the designer & architect niche market. CAUTION!