Download Is the link alive? - Trinity University

MEXICO
¿Un juego de
serpientes y
escaleras?
Jorge G. Gonzalez
Trinity University
Recent Economic and Political Events
•
•
•
•
Economic recovery in the U.S.
Government gridlock
Political scandals (AMLO and PRI)
Mexico – U.S. relationship
Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?
Industrial Production Index
(January 2000 = 100)
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
50
U.S.
Mexico
Source: Banco de México and FED
www.banxico.org.mx; www.federalreserve.gov
Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?
• GDP growth
Real GDP
% yearly change
10
5
0
-5
-10
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: INEGI
www.inegi.gob.mx
Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?
• GDP growth
• Direct foreign investment
Foreign Direct Investment
Billions of Dollars
30.0
27.5
25.0
20.0
17.2
15.0
12.8
11.0
10.0
5.0
2.6
9.5
13.5
12.4
17.3
18.2
17.8
12.9
9.2
4.8 4.4
4.4
0.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
Debt Market Foreign Investment
Billions of Dollars
6.0
5.2
5.0
3.3
4.0
3.0
2.0
0.9
0.6
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.1
-0.9
0.0
0.1
0.0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
Stock Market Foreign Investment
Billions of Dollars
6.0
4.0
2.8
3.8
3.2
2.0
3.4
0.4
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.7
-2.0
-2.5
-4.0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
Vital Signs
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Is the link alive?
GDP growth
Direct foreign investment
Super Peso and foreign sector
Exchange Rate
Pesos per U.S. Dollar
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan95
96 97 98 99
00 01 02
03 04 05 06
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
Exchange Rate
Pesos per U.S. Dollar
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan95
96 97 98 99
00 01 02
03 04 05 06
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
Inflation Differential vs. Exchange Rate
317
Inflation
219
Exchange Rate
1995
1997
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
1999
2001
2003
2005
Merchandise Trade
Billions of Dollars
70
60
Imports
50
40
Exports
30
20
10
94 - I
95 - I
96 - I
97 - I
98 - I
99 - I
00 - I
01- I
02 - I
03 - I
04 - I
05 - I
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
Family Remittances
Billions of Dollars
2 0 .0
20.0
16 .6
13 .4
15.0
8 .9
10.0
5.0
4 .2 4 .9
4 .7
9 .8
5.9 6 .6
0.0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
Family Remittances
Billions of Dollars
2 0 .0
20.0
16 .6
13 .4
15.0
8 .9
10.0
5.0
4 .2 4 .9
4 .7
9 .8
5.9 6 .6
0.0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
Vital Signs
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Is the link alive?
GDP growth
Direct foreign investment
Super Peso and foreign sector
Federal government balance
Government Balance
Balance / GDP
1.0
0.2 0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
1994
-0.2 -0.1
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-1.1
-1.0 -1.0
-1.1
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: SHCP
www.shcp.gob.mx
Vital Signs
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•
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Is the link alive?
GDP growth
Direct foreign investment
Super Peso and foreign sector
Federal government balance
War on inflation
Inflation
60
51.97
50
40
27.70
30
18.61
15.72
20
10
7.05
12.32
8.96
4.40 5.70 3.98 5.19 3.33
0
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
Vital Signs
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•
•
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Is the link alive?
GDP growth
Direct Foreign Investment
Super Peso and Foreign Sector
Federal Government Balance
War on Inflation
Political Environment
•Presidential elections
Felipe Calderón
Roberto Madrazo
Andrés López Obrador
Political Environment
•Presidential elections
•Structural reform paralysis
A Game of Chutes and Ladders?
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Incredible transformation with stability
Fox’s legacy: Separation of powers
Much work to be done
Grave danger: Rule of law
A Game of Chutes and Ladders?
MEXICO
¿Un juego de
serpientes y
escaleras?
www.trinity.edu/jgonzal1
[email protected]