Download View Agriculture - The Road Ahead

Dr. David M. Kohl
Professor Emeritus
Agricultural and Applied Economics
Virginia Tech
Blacksburg, VA 24060
(540) 961-2094 (Alicia Morris)
(540) 719-0752 (Angela Meadows)
e-mail: [email protected]
Weekly Website Columns:
Ag Globe Trotter: www.farm-credit.com
Road Warrior of Agriculture: www.cornandsoybeandigest.com
Future Agricultural Business Environment 2025
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70% of North American farm ground will change hands
by 2025
one size will not fit all
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local, natural, organic
traditional
large complex business
special interest groups & consumers will drive business
models
water & oil will be the limited resources
media & information technology management challenges
women & minorities will drive business models
economic moderation in G-20 nations
emerging economics / BRIC Nations critical in planning
volatility will be the new normal
balance in business & life
Five Dimensions of Agriculture
Food
Fiber
Life Experiences
Life Sciences
Fuel
Percentage of World GDP
Century of Super Cycles
Common Characteristics:
Commodities Boom
Rapid Global Real Growth
(average annual %
change)
Conflict & Geopolitical
Uncertainty
Inflation
Significant Infrastructure
Investment
Centered on
% Increase in Prices
(previous trough to peak)
Years of Rising Prices
Prior to Peak
1915-17
1950-57
1973-74
2003-09
N/A
4.8%
4.0%
3.5%
First World war
Korean war
Yom Kippur &
Vietnam wars
Iraq conflict
Widespread
Limited
Widespread
Limited
First World war
Postwar
reconstruction
None
China
Metals,
agriculture
Metals,
agriculture
Oil,
agriculture
Oil, metals,
agriculture
34%
47%
59%
131%
4
3
2
5
Source: World Bank
World Growth
Germany
-4.8%
Canada
-3.2%
Mexico
-6.2%
U.S.
0.1%
Iceland
-7.2%
Britain
-3.2%
Euro zone
4.0%
France
-2.3 %
Russian Fed.
- 8.9%
China
10.7%
India
7.9%
Brazil
-1.2%
Japan
-5.1%
South Korea
6.0%
Australia
0.6%
South Africa
2.1%
-
GDP Growth %
2010 Latest Quarter Figures
February 11, 2010
Source: www.Economist.com
Indonesia
5.4%
Final Thoughts on the Road Ahead
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interdependent vs. independent
people skills- emotional intellect
total systems management
interconnections
local
 national
 international
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scenario planners
business planner & strategy execution
P = O + C + L + M2