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ECON203 Principles of Macroeconomics Week 7 Topic: Aggregate Demand Dr. Mazharul Islam 1 Learning outcomes for student revision To learn about After studying these topics you should be able to: Understand the meaning and factors that affect Aggregate Demand. Show changes using an AD and explain their output and price implications Explain the meaning and differences between Equilibrium output (Ye) and Potential output (YP) and why and how they will change Dr. Mazharul Islam 2 Aggregate Demand • Aggregate Demand:It is the relationship between the quantity of real GDP demanded and the price level when other influences on expenditure plans remain the same. • This relationship as follows: • Other things remaining the same, the higher the price level , the smaller is the quantity of real GDP demanded; and the lower the price level, the greater is the quantity of real GDP demanded . Dr. Mazharul Islam 3 Aggregate Demand Fundamentals The quantity of real GDP demanded (Y) is the total amount of final goods and services produced in Saudi Arabia that people, businesses, governments, and foreigners plan to buy. This quantity is the sum of planned: o consumption expenditures (C), o investment (I), o government spending (G), and o exports minus imports (net exports), (X – M). That is: Y = C + I + G + (X – M) = GDP (expenditure measure) Dr. Mazharul Islam 4 Aggregate Demand Curve Dr. Mazharul Islam 5 Aggregate Demand Curve Downward slope. “the higher (lower) the price level the smaller (greater) the quantity of real GDP demanded” when other things are constant. Because a change in the price level brings a change in: 1.The buying power of money 2. The real interest rate 3. The real prices of exports and imports The buying power of money (Wealth Effect) A rise in the price level lowers the buying power of money. That means the same quantity of money can not buy the same quantity of goods and services as price level Drops increases. As prices rise the buying power of your wealth ________ Decrease and the quantity of Saudi Arabia’s real GDP demanded ________ Dr. Mazharul Islam 6 Aggregate Demand Curve Downward slope •When the price level ( )demand for money (the amount of money that people want to hold) ( ), the nominal interest rate ( )the real interest rate ( ). • Faced with higher real interest rate, businesses and people delay plans to buy new capital and consumer durable goods and they will decrease spending. Increase and the As prices rise the interest rate ________ quantity of Saudi Arabia’s real GDP demanded Dr. Mazharul Islam Decrease . ________ 7 Aggregate Demand Curve Downward slope The Real Prices of Exports & Imports (Substitute Effects) When the country's price level increases and the prices in other countries do not change local made goods and services will be more expensive than the foreign made items. People will spend less on local made items and that means a decrease in real GDP demanded. Less and As prices rise export buyers will tend to buy________ More imports, so the quantity of Saudi People will buy ______ KSA’s real GDP demanded _________ Decrease Dr. Mazharul Islam 8 Aggregate Demand Curve Downward slope Price Level Price level ↑ moves us leftward along the AD curve P3 Price level ↓ moves us rightward along the AD curve P1 P2 AD Q3 Q1 Q2 Real GDP Dr. Mazharul Islam 9 Changes in Aggregate Demand. •A change in any factor other than the price level brings a change in aggregate demand and aggregate demand curve shifts to the right (aggregate demand increases)or to the left(aggregate demand decreases) . •The factors are : 1. Expectations about the future (concerning economic, political and social factors) 2. Government Economic Policies (Fiscal and monetary policies) 3. The state of the world economy (net exports) Dr. Mazharul Islam 10 Changes in AD (Shift of the AD curve) for expectation With same price level 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Expected higher future income-AD Expected lower future income-AD Expected higher future inflation-AD Expected lower future inflation-AD Expected higher future profits-AD Expected lower future profits-AD (Rightward) (Leftward) (Rightward) (Leftward) (Rightward) (Leftward) Dr. Mazharul Islam 11 Changes in AD (Shift of the AD curve) for government policies With same price level 1) Expansionary fiscal policy (tax ,G ,TP )-AD (Rightward) 2) Contractionary fiscal policy (tax ,G ,TP )-AD (Leftward) 3) Expansionary monetary policy (i MS ) -AD (Rightward) 4) Contractionary monetary policy(i MS )-AD (Leftward) Dr. Mazharul Islam 12 Changes in AD (Shift of the AD curve) for state of the world economy With same price level 1) Better world economy (foreign income )-AD (Rightward) 2) Worse world economy (foreign income )-AD (Leftward) 3) Lower exchange rate (X M ) -AD (Leftward) 4) Higher exchange rate (X M ) -AD (Rightward) Dr. Mazharul Islam 13 Changes in AD (Shift of the AD curve) Price Level Entire AD curve shifts rightward if: • a, I, TP, G, or NX increases • Net taxes, i decrease • The money supply increases Price Level Entire AD curve shifts leftward if: • a, I, TP, G, or NX decreases • Net taxes, i increase • The money supply decrease AD2 AD1 AD1 Real GDP Dr. Mazharul Islam AD2 Real GDP 14 Macroeconomic Equilibrium (short-run) Occurs when the quantity of real GDP demanded equals the quantity of real GDP supplied at the point of intersection of the AD curve and the SAS curve. i.e. AD = SAS shows where the economy is NOW Only at this combination of prices and production can firms sell all their output and people buy all the goods and services they demand. Short-run equilibrium is the normal state of the economy as it fluctuates around potential GDP. Dr. Mazharul Islam 15 Short-Run Equilibrium – Graph Price Level 125 SAS 115 Short-run macroeconomic equilibrium 105 95 85 AD 0 860 880 900 920 940 Real GDP Dr. Mazharul Islam 16 Explaining Macroeconomic Fluctuations – Figure 10.6 illustrates a short-run equilibrium. – If real GDP is below equilibrium GDP, firms increase production and raise prices… – … and if real GDP is above equilibrium GDP, firms decrease production and lower prices. Dr. Mazharul Islam 17 What Happens When Things Change? Our short-run equilibrium will change when either AD curve, SAS curve, or both, shift An event that causes AD curve to shift is called a demand shock. An event that causes AS curve to shift is called a supply shock. A change in spending by one or more sectors that ultimately affects entire economy Demand shocks and supply shocks are just two different categories of spending shocks Dr. Mazharul Islam 18 The Effect of a Demand Shock in short-run SAS Price Level 130 115 100 H J E AD1 10 13.5 12.5 AD2 Real GDP($ Trillions) Dr. Mazharul Islam 19 An Increase in Government Purchases An Increase in Money Supply 20 Inflationary and Recessionary Gap – The amount by which real GDP exceeds potential GDP is called a inflationary gap. – The amount by which real GDP is less than potential GDP is called a recessionary gap. Dr. Mazharul Islam 21 Thinking time………………….. Question 1: Home Work Question (4 marks) Using the AD/AS model, show and explain (using four separate diagrams) the likely impact of the following events on KSA’s prices and output. Consider the economy initially at full employment. i. Consumer confidence strengthens ii. The world experiences a strong resources price boom. iii. Oil prices fall substantially iv. There’s a significant technological development and improvement. Dr. Mazharul Islam 22 Thinking time………………….. Question 2: Home Work Question (4 marks) Draw on an AD/AS graph the expected impacts of the following factors and explain the effects on the economy. (a) A falling stock market (b) Increasing labour market participation Dr. Mazharul Islam 23 Now it’s over for today. Do you have any question? Dr. Mazharul Islam 24