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Migration: Building regional advantage GA 2008 Assembly of European Regions (AER) Open Space – International Speaker‘s Corner Nov 13th 2008, Tampere Dr. Tina Haisch, Economist, BAK Basel Economics www.bakbasel.com Content Who is BAK? Why is it important to talk about migration? Business climate vs. People‘s climate Concept Migration and economic development Research questions Method Econometric analysis Conclusions www.bakbasel.com BAK Basel Economics: Independent economic research Swiss economic research & consultancy institute Staff: 35 (thereof 19 economists) Economic data, analysis and consultancy for countries, regions and industries Benchmarking, forecasts, research projects (e.g. statistical/econometric analyses, SWOT analyses, elaboration and evaluation of regional visions and strategies) Analytical work based on BAK’s vast performance (Gross value added at current, constant prices as well as industry specific purchasing power parities, employment, hours worked, output per man hour,labour cost and unit labour cost (30 variables)) and location factor database (Indicators for regulation, taxation, innovation capacity, accessibility etc.) www.bakbasel.com Regions - Not Only Countries Business Sectors – Not Only Macro Level Time series for 800 regions in 24 countries NUTS1 to NUTS3 45 industry sectors (NACE). In selected industries more details (Life Sciences, Finance, Technology, Tourism) Countries Regions www.bakbasel.com Migration: Building regional advantage www.bakbasel.com Building regional advantage In recent years the effects of migration, expressed through research questions like do people follow jobs (does employment drive population changes) or do jobs follow people (does population drive employment changes) on regional economic development have gained considerable interest among researchers, politicians and economic actors. -> -> -> empirical results (nature of causality) differ a lot across space and time a meta analysis conducted by Hoogstra et. al in 2005 compared the results of 37 studies from 1987 to 2003. They found empirical evidence for the hypothesis „jobs follow people“ Furthermore they found out that the chosen regions/countries and time periods have major influence on the results www.bakbasel.com Building regional advantage: Business Climate vs. People Climate Business climate: Economic performance, the development of Clusters and Regional Innovation Systems are based on the creation of localisation economies as well as on other factors (company taxation, regulation etc.) Silicon Valley, CA, USA People’s climate: Focusing on quality of life, taxation, diversity, creativity and tolerance emphasizing urbanisation economies. Such an environment attracts talents which in turn attract and generate innovative, knowledge-based economic activity Cologne city beach, Germany www.bakbasel.com Concept: Explaining employment and economic performance Regulation Taxation Innovation Governance Migration Quality of Life Accessibility Economic performance of regions www.bakbasel.com Interaction between migration and economic growth Attractiveness of regions and countries Political attractiveness • Stability • Institutions (laws, immigration policy etc.) Other attractiveness • Accessibility • Quality of life • etc. Economic attractiveness • Performance • Employment • Taxation Migration • Refugees • Asylum seekers • etc. • Migrant labour • Expatriates • etc. • Students • Alumnis • etc. Attractiveness of regions and countries • GDP • Employment (jobs) • Taxation • Regulation • Productivity • Job vacancy • Quality of life • Innovation resources • etc. www.bakbasel.com Questions to be answered with regard to regional advantage 1. Is economic performance the driver of migration or is migration the driver of economic performance? 2. Do people follow jobs or do jobs follow people? www.bakbasel.com Method sample for empirical analysis: 40 metropolitan regions in Europe and the US 26 years (1980 – 2006) methods employed: - Simple correlations - Correlations (with time leads and lags) to show the time structure - Granger (1969) causalities for testing the significance of correlation Simultaneous testing for the equations: (1) yt = a0 +a1yt–1 + … +alyt–l + b1xt–1 + … + blxt–l +et (2) xt = a0 +a1xt–1 + … +alxt–l + b1yt–1 + … + blyt-l +ut F-test with null hypothesis b1 = b2 = … = bl = 0 assumptions: natural population changes are similar across the investigated metropolitan regions therefore migration can be estimated by population changes Source: BAK Basel Economics www.bakbasel.com Relation of economic performance and people 2% Barcelona population growth 2001-2006 Madrid 2% Dublin Los Angeles San Diego Oslo 1% Milano San Francisco Marseille 1% 0% Berlin Stuttgart Frankfurt Stavanger München Brüssel Luxemburg Rom Paris Göteborg Antw erpen Helsinki Amsterdam Edinburgh Oresund Manchester Birmingham Arhus Köln Neapel Genf Wien Lissabon Lyon r = 0.4 Stockholm London Athen Boston Glasgow Nancy Liverpool -1% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% real GDP growth 2001-2006 Source: BAK Basel Economics www.bakbasel.com Relation of jobs and people 2.0% Barcelona population growth 2001-2006 Madrid 1.5% Dublin r = 0.52 Los Angeles San Diego 1.0% Oslo Genf Wien Brüssel Milano München San Francisco Lyon Stavanger London Stockholm Rom Lissabon Antw erpen Paris Athen 0.5% Helsinki Göteborg Manchester Oresund Edinburgh Amsterdam Marseille Stuttgart Neapel Birmingham Köln Arhus Frankfurt Boston Glasgow 0.0% Berlin Nancy Luxemburg Liverpool -0.5% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% employment growth 2001-2006 Source: BAK Basel Economics www.bakbasel.com Economic performance and employment (jobs) m a x i m um Correlation (employment growth (t+i); GDP growth (t)) 9 5 %- pe r c e nt i l e m e di a n 5 %- pe r c e nt i l m i ni m um 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Economic performance today affects employment growth today Economic performance affects employment growth one year later Source: BAK Basel Economics www.bakbasel.com Economic performance and migration M a x i mu m Correlation (GDP growth (t+i) ; population growth (t)) 9 5 %- P e r c e n t i l M edi an 5 %- P e r c e n t i l M i n i mu m 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Migration today results from economic growth in the last 4 years. Source: BAK Basel Economics www.bakbasel.com Employment and migration M a x i m um Correlation (employment growth (t+i) ; population growth (t)) 9 5 %- P e r c e nt i l M e di a n 100% 5 %- P e r c e nt i l M i ni m um 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Migration today results from job growth in the last 4 years (people follow jobs). Source: BAK Basel Economics www.bakbasel.com Until now it seems that… – GDP growth today leads to job growth one year later – GDP growth today leads to migration (population growth) up to 4 years later – employment growth today leads to migration (population growth) up to 4 years later www.bakbasel.com ..and after testing for significance (Granger causality): 1. Is economic performance the driver of migration or is migration the driver of economic performance? Log (population) causes Log (GDP) Log (GDP) causes Log (population) Lags alpha 5% Lags 1 5 2 11 3 12 4 6 5 6 6 5 7 3 8 3 alpha 5% 1 26 2 16 3 12 4 10 5 9 6 7 7 6 8 3 -> Economic performance is the driver of migration! 2. Do people follow jobs or do jobs follow people? Log (population) causes Log (employment) Log (employment) causes Log (population) Lags alpha 5% 1 8 2 15 3 11 4 9 5 10 6 10 7 7 8 3 alpha 5% berücksichtigte Lags 1 2 3 4 21 7 8 10 5 7 6 6 7 5 8 2 -> In the short run: people follow jobs -> but in the long run jobs also follow people Source: BAK Basel Economics www.bakbasel.com Conclusions: Lessons learned from the data effects with a time lag of ~ 1 year Economic Growth Employment Growth effect with a time lag of ~ 4 years Population Growth = Migration effects with a time lag of ~ 2 - 6 years Employment Growth www.bakbasel.com Conclusions: Lessons learned from the data ► Migration is an important factor for economic success and for regional advantage! ► Economic growth is the catalyst for job growth and migration ► But: Causality is directed forwards and backwards! www.bakbasel.com What should regional actors take into account? ► Therefore: The construction of both, business climate and people’s climate are very important for the economic success of a functional region! ► Most regional actors focus mainly on attracting companies and improvement of business conditions -> business climate ► But: For sustainable long-term regional growth, people‘s climate is as important! www.bakbasel.com