Download `Beyond GDP` indicators?

Where is the
demand for
‘Beyond GDP’
indicators?
Funded by:
The Project
BRAINPOoL (Bringing alternative indicators into policy) is an
EU-funded project aimed at identifying and overcoming the
barriers to ‘Beyond GDP’ indicators being used in policy.
During the project we are carrying out research and
interviews, conducting workshops and knowledge-brokerage
seminars and undertaking various action research case
studies to explore ways to improve the uptake of Beyond
GDP indicators.
All reports are available at: www.brainpoolproject.eu/research
Beyond GDP indicators
- a definition
“those indicators and indicator sets that have
been proposed as necessary and central to
the measurement of societal progress in a
broad sense, other than those indicators,
such as GDP or the unemployment rate, that
are already playing this role.”
The project’s structure
This
presentation
The central
questions
How can we understand the demand, or
lack of demand, for Beyond GDP
indicators? What does this mean for
those promoting these indicators?
BWJones
Context
The evidence in ‘What makes indicators successful’ (WP1
presentation) drew attention to the importance of:
- Working with policy makers and other audiences from the start and of
building alliances
- Producing indicators that fit policy visions and strategies, and perceived
need
- Using the language of the economists and analysts who will use the
indicators
- Using public pressure – so that there is bottom up support
- Avoiding being seen to have too strong an agenda – of having the
legitimacy that comes with perceived neutrality
- Small scale, local initiatives where it is often easier to have an impact
- For headline indicators, simple messages and absence of taboo words
This presentation
Given this, what is the state of the demand for alternative
indicators?
If indicator developers and promoters are to ‘work with policy
makers and other audiences from the start’, where should they
begin?
What should they avoid doing?
What are the problems to be overcome?
Research methodologies
The results presented in this slideshow were gathered during two
complementary research activities:
1) Desk research on the Beyond GDP landscape (actors, events,
initiatives, indicators etc.) in a number of EU-member countries as
well as selected international/European organisations with the aim
of comparing the policy agendas that have built up around the
development and promotion of Beyond GDP indicators.
2) Face-to face interviews and workshops with policy actors within
and outside the Beyond GDP agenda aimed at understanding the
perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses of the agenda.
Both activities were predominantly conducted in the following
countries: France, the Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic
and Wales; as well as at the EU and OECD level.
Societal demand
phillipe leroyer
Societal demand
• An appetite exists in some parts of civil society for a (more
or less extensive) transformation, both of our ‘world vision’
and of the system itself
• This echoes a wider and growing discontent amongst the
general public during the economic crisis.
However:
“the general public does not think in terms of indicators,
but in terms of human dimensions”
• In other words, ‘bottom-up’ demand is rarely for indicators
themselves but the demand for change that is there should
be taken into account in the creation of new indicators.
• Alternative indicator producers should be responding to this
demand.
Political demand
Joseph Ho
Political demand
• The transformational vision seen in some parts of civil
society is not common amongst political elites.
• However, there are demands for:
– A single, simple, yet multi-dimensional indicator
– Environmental indicators
• Political demand is strongest
– at the local and regional levels
– when Beyond GDP indicators are seen to be compatible
with the status quo or incremental change (e.g.
enhancing well-being at work to support profit
maximisation).
Political demand
• Political demand is often associated with pressure from civil
society, or with sustainable development strategies in which
indicators often have a specific role to play.
• Beyond GDP indicators are currently more likely to serve a
conceptual or an assessment/communication role rather
than a role in decision-making (where they are often applied
too late).
Lack of demand
waynep57
Lack of demand
• Generally, however, demand for Beyond GDP indicators
remains weak within institutions. The weak demand can be
explained in terms of:
– Lack of push factors – reasons to move away from GDP
don’t hold much sway amongst potential users (user
factors), and in the current political context (policy
factors).
– Lack of pull factors – concerns about the Beyond GDP
indicators themselves (indicator factors).
Lack of push factors
Todd Kravos
Lack of push factors
No clear belief in the innovation of Beyond GDP
On the one hand there is a general acknowledgement of GDP’s
weaknesses, but many statisticians feel that there is nothing new
about Beyond GDP:
• GDP was never meant to measure welfare, there are plenty of
other indicators already in use.
• A sense that the Beyond GDP agenda has been “blown out of
proportion” . The obsession with going Beyond GDP is not
understood by many statisticians who see GDP as just one of
many indicators.
• The problem (according to statisticians and policy makers) is how
GDP is portrayed to the public, particularly by the media.
• As such, there is a perception that Beyond GDP indicators do not
offer any social and/or statistical innovation.
Lack of push factors
A belief that the well-known defects in GDP can be lived with
• Actors did mention the lack of correlation between GDP and
subjective well-being in rich countries and the negative
environmental impacts of growth.
• Therefore many agreed it needs complementing with
indicators of new spheres not covered by national accounts
• For some, these work best if they fit with current models,
indicators and ways of thinking (e.g. C02 /GDP)
• However many believe
– GDP is a very robust measure
– rising GDP is compatible with environmental goals
– GDP is a good proxy measure for progress
Lack of push factors
A belief that growth remains pivotal
Ultimately, even if GDP is not seen as a good proxy for
welfare, it is seen to be measuring something central to the
current societal model. As such, it needs to remain in a
central place
• For most mainstream actors, quality of life improvements –
on the social, human or ecological level – are impossible
without growth.
• Steady-state proposals of zero-growth are rejected as
unrealistic.
• The financial crisis has redoubled the focus on growth (even
if it has highlighted weaknesses in the system).
Lack of pull factors
JoePhilipson
Lack of pull factors
Poor knowledge of the alternatives
• Aside from the ‘Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi’ report, Human
Development Index and Ecological Footprint, awareness of
international Beyond GDP initiatives, events and indicators
is generally poor.
• For example, many workshop attendees had not heard
about the OECD’s Better Life Initiative, or the EU’s GDP
and Beyond Initiative.
• In France some MPs thought it would be a good idea to
have indicators of sustainable development, without
realising they already existed.
Lack of pull factors
Lack of trust in Beyond GDP indicators
• No alternative societal model has been put forward that
links clearly with Beyond GDP indicators, in the way that
the Keynesian growth model links with GDP.
• Hence perception of a lack of realism in the thinking
underlying Beyond GDP indicators
• Sometimes even a distrust of the ulterior motives behind
the indicators.
• Distrust of subjective data given its arbitrary dimensions
and lack of comparability.
• Concern that Beyond GDP indicators are just ‘a flash in the
pan’, a transient interest, and unlikely to endure in the longterm.
Lack of pull factors
Incompatible temporalities
• One of GDP’s strong points is that it is published every
three months and is considered timely. Beyond GDP
indicators are currently published too irregularly and with
too much of a time lag to impact on decision-making and
political cycles.
• Added to this is the fact that Beyond GDP indicators often
incorporate long-term issues (such as sustainability) and
long-term trends (such as changes in well-being), which
struggle to attract the attention of politicians focused on the
short term.
Debates and issues within
Beyond GDP
There are some important issues where Beyond
GDP actors (and allies) have mixed opinions
Graham_Smith
Debates and issues within
Beyond GDP
• Democratisation – All the discourses we analysed argue for
a general democratisation of the construction and
development phases of indicators and for greater access to
statistical data. These demands, however, contrast strongly
with the current technical nature of the agenda.
• Composite vs. dashboard indicators – We found two
groups: those that strongly rejected creating composite
indicators, and those that felt that composite indicators
were useful, particularly for communication purposes,
provided they could be disaggregated transparently.
Debates and issues within
Beyond GDP
• Lack of conceptual clarity – Many terms are used in an
unclear way, e.g. progress, well-being, sustainability – and
often understood differently by different actors.
• Multiple aims – Some Beyond GDP indicators have been
used to improve the operation of the current economic
model (e.g. using well-being at work to increase
productivity) – although many see the goal of alternative
indicators as being to help move beyond the current
economic model.
• Should we measure at all? – Some potential allies of the
Beyond GDP agenda (e.g. Serge Latouche) criticise some
Beyond GDP indicators for reducing happiness into
numbers which can be controlled by the State.
Opportunities and hope
However, our research did reveal some
opportunities and reasons to be hopeful
howardpa58
Opportunities and hope
At the political level…
• Institutionalisation – The existence of political programmes such
as national sustainable development strategies in which
indicators have a specific role to play has rendered indicators
less dependent on the vagaries of policy cycles.
• The influence of the ‘Stiglitz Report’ – The clear, readable and
high profile synthesis of the current state of the art this report
offered has undeniably contributed towards many institutions
producing and/or using more new indicators.
• Demand for composite indicators – particularly for assessment
does exist e.g. in the Netherlands, Wales and France.
• Pro-active approach – Statisticians and decision-makers are
making increasingly proactive moves towards the production and
use of alternative indicators.
Opportunities and hope
At the societal level…
• Role of the financial crisis – Whilst its impact has been mixed, it
has called the economic model into question further. In France
and elsewhere, demand for Beyond GDP indicators has
increased since the crisis.
• Recognition of the role of indicators in social change – Some
interviewees noted the role of indicators in defining world visions,
while a recent international survey showed that 68% of
respondents favoured replacing GDP with a broader indicator
that also incorporates health, social and environmental statistics.
• Widening the debate – The measurement of progress is no
longer just a topic for economists. Other disciplines are now
involved (e.g. psychology, environmental science), and civil
society actors have a role. The debate is happening at local and
regional levels as well as national, creating more opportunities.
Summary
• Demand for Beyond GDP indicators remains patchy.
• There is a lack of push factors away from the status quo
– many mainstream actors feel that GDP should remain
the central measure of the state of a nation, and that
other indicators already exist to measure a suite of other
issues.
• There are reasons for weak pull factors towards Beyond
GDP indicators, including lack of knowledge, distrust,
and timeliness issues.
• However, social demand is growing, in some cases
related to dissatisfaction with current economic model.
• Political demand exists, associated with greater
institutionalisation, reports such as that of the Stiglitz
Commission, and more pro-active statistical offices.
For the full report, visit:
www.brainpoolproject.eu/research
For more information please contact:
Alistair Whitby, World Future Council
[email protected]
Saamah Abdallah, nef (the new economics foundation)
[email protected]
Géraldine Thiry, Université Libre de Bruxelles
[email protected]
James Jordan