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Macro McEachern 2011 ECON 11 2010- CHAPTER Designed by Amy McGuire, B-books, Ltd. Chapter 11 Aggregate Supply Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved Aggregate Supply in the Short Run LO1 Chapter 11 – • • – • • • – Aggregate supply, AS Relationship Price level Output firms are willing and able to supply Constant Resource prices Technology Set of formal and informal institutions Short run Some resource prices: fixed Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved Labor and Aggregate Supply – – – – – Labor 70% of production costs Supply of labor Size/abilities of adult population Preferences for work vs. leisure Higher wage – More labor supplied Higher price level The less the money wage purchase The less attractive the wage LO1 Chapter 11 Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved Potential Output – • Potential output Amount produced No surprises about price level Maximum sustainable output Natural rate of output Full-employment rate of output LO1 Chapter 11 Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved Natural Rate of Unemployment – • – – – Natural rate of unemployment Unemployment rate when Potential output No cyclical unemployment Some frictional, structural, and seasonal unemployment 4-6% LO1 Chapter 11 Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved Actual Price Level is Higher than Expected – – – – – – Price level > expected Higher profit per unit Increase production Economy’s output > potential Unemployment < natural rate Increased per-unit production cost Marginal cost increases The price level rises faster LO1 Chapter 11 Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved Actual Price Level is Lower than Expected – – – – Price level < expected Production less profitable Decrease production Economy’s output < potential Unemployment > natural rate Decreased per-unit production cost LO1 Chapter 11 Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved LO1 Exhibit 1 Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Price level Potential output SRAS130 140 130 a 120 0 14.0 Chapter 11 The SRAS curve is based on a given expected price level, in this case, 130. Point a shows that if the actual price level equals the expected price level of 130, producers supply potential output. If the actual price level is below 130, firms supply less than potential. Output levels that fall short of the economy’s potential are shaded red; output levels that exceed the economy’s potential are shaded blue. Real GDP (trillions of dollars) Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved LO2 Exhibit 4 Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve Price level Potential output LRAS 140 b 130 a 120 c AD” 0 14.0 Chapter 11 AD’ AD In the long run, when the actual price level equals the expected price level, the economy produces its potential. In the long-run, $14.0 trillion in real GDP will be supplied regardless of the actual price level. As long as wages and prices are flexible, the economy’s potential GDP is consistent with any price level. Thus, shifts of the aggregate demand curve will, in the long-run, not affect potential output. The longrun aggregate supply curve, LRAS, is a vertical line at potential GDP. Real GDP (trillions of dollars) Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved Wage Flexibility and Employment – – – – – Expansionary gap Labor shortage Higher nominal wage Higher price level Contractionary gap Nominal wages = “sticky” downward Slow to close LO2 Chapter 11 Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved Shifts of the Aggregate Supply Curve LO3 Supply shocks Unexpected events Beneficial supply shocks Increase aggregate supply (SRAS, LRAS) Abundant harvests Discoveries of natural resources Technological breakthroughs Sudden changes in economic system; tax cuts Higher output; lower price level Chapter 11 Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved Shifts of the Aggregate Supply Curve LO3 Adverse supply shocks Decrease aggregate supply (SRAS, LRAS) A drought Overthrow of government Terrorist attacks Stagflation Lower output Higher price level Chapter 11 Copyright ©2010 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved