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Chapter 4 Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the IS-LM Model Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. The Definition of Money • Money is defined as any good or asset that serves the following three functions: – Medium of Exchange – Store of Value – Unit of Account • The Money Supply (MS) is equal to currency in circulation plus checking accounts at banks and thrift institutions. – The Fed is assumed to determine the money supply (see Chapter 13 for more details). Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-2 Money Demand • The demand for money is determined by people’s need for money to facilitate transactions. – If Income (Y) Md – If the Price Level (P) Md • Notice: Real money demand = M P d is unaffected by P • The demand for money also depends negatively on the cost of holding money, the interest rate (r). – If r Md as people switch out of money into interest-bearing savings accounts or other financial assets • Algebraically, the general linear form of Md is: d M hY fr P Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. (where h, f > 0) 4-3 What Shifts Money Demand? • The main shift factor for real Md is income (Y). • Additional shift factors include: – Interest paid on money: If money pays more interest (which was not possible before 1978), Md rises – Wealth: If people become wealthier, some of the additional wealth may be held as money, so Md rises. – Expected future inflation: If people expect P to rise quickly in the future, they will try to hold as little money as possible. – Payment technologies: Any technological development that alters how people pay for goods and services, or the ease of switching between money and non-money assets can change Md • Examples: Credit Cards and ATMs Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-4 Figure 4-1 The Demand for Money, the Interest Rate, and Real Income Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-5 Figure 4-2 Effect on the Money Demand Schedule of a Decline in Real Income from $8,000 to $6,000 Billion Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-6 The LM Curve • The LM Curve shows all the possible combinations of Y and r such that the money market is in equilibrium. • Algebraic Derivation: At equilibrium, real MS equals real Md: MS P hY fr Solving for r yields: Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1 M S r f P h Y f 4-7 What shifts and rotates the LM Curve? • Recall: 1 M S r f P h Y f • Anything that only affects the intercept term will shift the LM curve: – If MS LM shifts → – If P LM shifts → – Not captured by slope term: Md LM shifts ← • Anything that affects the slope term will cause a rotation of the LM curve: – If h LM becomes steeper – If f LM becomes flatter Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-8 Figure 4-3 Derivation of the LM Curve Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-9 The General Equilibrium • A General Equilibrium is a situation of simultaneous equilibrium in all of the markets of the economy. • How does the economy adjust to the general equilibrium? – If the goods market is out of equilibrium involuntary inventory decumulation or accumulation occurs firms respond by increasing or decreasing production Y moves to equilibrium – If the money market is out of equilibrium pressure on interest rates will bring back monetary equilibrium Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-10 Figure 4-4 The IS and LM Schedules Cross at Last Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-11 Monetary Policy • An expansionary monetary policy is one that has the effect of lowering interest rates and raising GDP. • A contractionary monetary policy is one that has the effect of raising interest rates and lowering GDP. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-12 How Monetary Policy Actually Worked in 2001–04 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-13 Figure 4-5 The Effect of a $1,000 Billion Increase in the Money Supply with a Normal LM Curve Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-14 Fiscal Policy and “Crowding Out” • An expansionary fiscal policy is one that has the effect of raising GDP, but also raising interest rates – Note: r Private Autonomous Spending • The reduction in the amount of consumption and/or investment spending due to an increase in G (or fall in T) is known as “Crowding Out” • Can crowding out be avoided? – Yes! If the Fed simultaneously MS r Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-15 Figure 4-6 The Effect on Real Income and the Interest Rate of a $500 Billion Increase in Government Spending Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-16 Monetary and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness • Monetary policy is strong when: – The IS curve is relatively flat and/or – The LM curve is steep • Monetary policy is weak when: – The IS curve is very steep and/or – The LM curve is relatively flat • Fiscal policy is strong when: – The IS curve is very steep and/or – The LM curve is relatively flat • Fiscal policy is weak when: – The IS curve is relatively flat and/or – The LM curve is steep Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-17 Figure 4-7 The Effect of an Increase in the Money Supply with a Normal LM Curve and a Vertical LM Curve Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-18 Figure 4-8 Effect of the Same Increase in the Real Money Supply with a Zero Interest Responsiveness of Spending and with a High Interest Responsiveness of the Demand for Money Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-19 Figure 4-9 Effect of a Fiscal Stimulus when Money Demand Has an Infinite and a Zero Interest Responsiveness Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-20 Figure 4-10 The Effect on Real Income of a Fiscal Stimulus With Three Alternative Monetary Policies (1 of 2) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-21 Figure 4-10 The Effect on Real Income of a Fiscal Stimulus With Three Alternative Monetary Policies (2 of 2) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-22 Figure 4-10 The Effect on Real Income of a Fiscal Stimulus With Three Alternative Monetary Policies Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-23 The Liquidity Trap • A Liquidity Trap occurs when investors are indifferent between holding money and short-term assets. – Why might investors be indifferent? • Because the nominal interest rate on short-term assets is close to zero! – Why is a liquidity trap a problem? • Because the interest rate is close to zero, the Fed can no longer use monetary policy to lower the interest rate to boost output. • How is a liquidity trap represented? – The LM curve starts off horizontal at very low interest rates before having its normal upward slope. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-24 International Perspective: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Paralysis in Japan’s “Lost Decade” Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-25 International Perspective: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Paralysis in Japan’s “Lost Decade” Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-26 Chapter Equations Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-27 Chapter Equations d Ms M 0.5Y 200r P P Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. (4.1) 4-28 Appendix Equations 1 1 multiplier k marginal leakage rate MLR General Linear Form Numerical Example Y kAp Y 4.0 Ap General Linear Form Numerical Example Ap A ' p br Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Ap A ' p 100rp (1) (2) (3) 4-29 Appendix Equations General Linear Form Numerical Example Y k ( Ap ' br ) General Linear Form Y 4.0( A ' p 100r ) Numerical Example M M Ms hY fr P P P s d Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. (4) 0.5Y 200r (5) 4-30 Appendix Equations General Linear Form Numerical Example Ms fr Y P h 2, 000 200r Y 0.5 Ms hY P r f Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. (6) (6a) 4-31 Appendix Equations bhY b M s Y k ( A0 br ) k A ' p f f P b Ms A'p f P Y 1 bh k f (8) Ms Y k1 A ' p k2 P (9) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. (7) 4-32 Appendix Equations General Linear Form Numerical Example 1 1 k1 k1 2.0 1 bh 1 100(0.5) k f 4.0 200 General Linear Form Numerical Example b/ f b 100(2.0) k2 k1 k2 1.0 1 bh f 200 k f Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. (10) (11) 4-33 Appendix Equations Ms Y k1 A ' p k2 P 2.0(2,500) 1.0(2, 000) (12) 7, 000 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-34