Download It is a small, flat, and crowded world

It is a small, flat, and
crowded world —
Challenges and opportunities
for win - win cooperation
C. L. Liu 劉炯朗
National Tsing Hua University
Hsinchu, Taiwan
Happiness
To Create and to Distribute Happiness
Around the World
Every time it rains, it rains, pennies from heaven.
Economy : Goal
Creation and Distribution of Wealth
Economy : Setting
A small world with a large population
and a lot of talents
Flattening the Playing Field
The Big Bang of the
Information Era
Forces that came from the Information
Revolution that began 60 years ago.
Before the Big Bang of the
Information Era
More Fundamental Forces
 Common Languages
 Education
 Transportation
Common Languages
Education
Transportation
 Commercial Jet Airplane Service
 Cargo Container
The Big Bang of the
Information Era
 Common Languages
 Education
 Transportation
 Computation
 Communication
Web 0.0
Fast, Small, Inexpensive,
and Versatile Information
Processing Machines
Web 1.0
Fast, Inexpensive, Accessible
Anytime/Anywhere Information
Transmission Networks
Web 1.0
Any computer is connected to any computer
Computer Networks 1965
 Sharing of Computing Power
 Distribution of Computing Power
 Sharing of Information
Web 1.0
Anything could be linked to anything
Weaving The WEB, 1991
Timothy John Berners-Lee
http://info.cern.ch/
 URI : Universal Resource Identifiers
 HTTP : Hypertext Transfer Protocol
 HTML : Hypertext Markup Language
Web 1.0
Anyone can view any piece of information
Browser
Mosaic, Netscape, Explorer, Firefox
Web 1.0
Anyone can locate any piece of information
Search Engine
Ask, and it will be given to you; seek, and you will find;
knock, and it will be opened to you. - Mathew 7:7
Web 2.0
Free to Contribute. Free to Share.
Free : Unrestricted and Unobstructed
Free : No Charge
of the people, by the people, for the people
- Abraham Lincoln
Web 2.0
Free and Open Source Software
GNU (GNU’s Not Unix) Project
Linux Kernel
Richard Stallman
Linus Torvalds
Web 2.0
Wikipedia
Jimmy Wales
Web 2.0
YouTube
Flattening the Playing Field
1. Collapse of the Berlin Wall
2. Netscape
3. Workflow Software
4. Open Sourcing
5. Outsourcing
6. Offshoring
7. Supply chaining
8. Insourcing
9. In-forming
10. “The Steriods” – personal digital devices
Economy : Goal
Creation and Distribution of Wealth
Economy : Creation of Wealth
 Labor Force = Wealth
 Natural Resources = Wealth
 Technology = Wealth
Labor Force = Wealth
 Agriculture Based
 Manufacture Based
Labor Force = Wealth
 Large Population
 Steam Engine:
First Industrial Revolution
Labor Force
Reduction
Wealth
Economy : Creation of Wealth
 Labor Force = Wealth
 Natural Resources = Wealth
 Technology = Wealth
Natural Resources = Wealth
 Gold, Coal, Iron, Oil,.…
Natural Resources
Depletion
Wealth
Economy : Creation of Wealth
 Labor Force = Wealth
 Natural Resources = Wealth
 Technology = Wealth
Technology = Wealth
 Aerospace, Communication,
Information, Medical,….
 Fashion, Music, Literature,….
Technology = Wealth
 Knowledge
 Talents
Technology
Wealth
Mutual Enhancement
Economy
Education
Technology
Building A High Tech Industry
 Technology
 Human Resources
 Capital
 Technological Infrastructure
 Non-Technological Infrastructure
 Incentives
 A High Tech Mentality
The U.S. Example
Silicon Valley








Stanford Industrial Park (1951)
Hewlett – Packard (1953)
Shockley Semiconductor (1956)
Fairchild Semiconductor (1957)
Intel (1968)
Apple (1970)
Synopsys (1986)
Google (1998)
The U.S. Example
Innovation is King
The U.S. Example
2008 Index of Silicon Valley, Published by Joint Venture :Silicon Valley Network
The U.S. Example
Venture Capital is the White Knight
 Capital
 Management
The U.S. Example
Silicon Valley VC investment:
2006 Q1~Q3 : $5.3 billion
2007 Q1~Q3 : $5.9 billion
2008 Index of Silicon Valley, Published by Joint Venture :Silicon Valley Network
The U.S. Example
Universities is the Mother
 Inventions
 Talents
–
–
–
–
–
–
Stanford University
University of California Berkeley
University of California at Santa Cruz
Santa Clara University
San Jose State University
MIT, CMU, UIUC
The Taiwan Example
 Population: 23 million
 Area: 13,822 sq mi
 GDP: USD15,758
農業經濟
製造業經濟
高科技產業經濟
白米
塑膠
個人電腦
香蕉
紡織
積體電路製作
養殖
鞋子
測試
電扇
封裝
腳踏車
面板
運動器材
記憶體
傘
Vision: 1976 marks the origin of
Taiwan semiconductor industry
H. C. Fang , President of ITRI; Wen-Yuan Pan, Advisor; Yun-suan Sun,
Minister of Economic Affairs
Hsinchu Science Park
 Established in 1980
 380 High Tech companies
 Yearly revenue USD40 billion
Technology Development and
Transfer
 Industrial Technological Research
Institute (ITRI) in Hsinchu
– Founded 30 years ago in Hsinchu
– 6193 employees (812 Ph.D.; 3,070 M. S.; 2,011
B.S.)
– Annual budget: USD500 million
Higher Education
 Number of Universities:160
 Number of Students Entering
Universities each year :100,000
 Tuition: USD 2,000 – 4,000 per year
Science & Technology Graduates
# graduates
350,000
300,000
250,000
Taiwanese workforce
~ 40,000 new engineers
each year
Business Week 2005
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
95
96
97
98
Taiwan
99
00
01
02
03
United States
04
World Leaders
#1 Foundry (TSMC, UMC)
#1 PC Motherboard Producer
#1 Packaging and Test
#2 Chipset Supplier (MediaTek, VIA, SiS)
#3 PC Manufacturer (Acer)
#6 DRAM Supplier (Nanya, ProMos &
Powerchip)
Building Infrastructure
Taiwan High Speed Rail
Building Infrastructure
Taipei 101
大學念什麼科系？ 電機，醫學
畢業之後做什麼？ 碩士，園區
工作態度是什麼？ 努力，緊守崗位
一流的科技人才
哲學，文學，藝術，音樂，體育的人才呢？
高科技產業
提高效率
降低成本
增加良率
及時供應
一流的高科技生產線
文化創意，服務觀光等其他產業呢？
農業經濟
製造業經濟
高科技產業經濟
勞
力
資
金
品
質
創
新
品
牌
勞力密集
商品 Commodity
小麥，玉米，
內衣，球鞋
商品市場 Commodity Market
資金
成本
供需
競爭
勞力密集
資金密集
商品 Commodity
小麥，玉米，
內衣，球鞋，
電腦，面板，DRAM
Standardization！
商品市場 Commodity Market
資金
成本
供需
競爭
本大利小
“Two Trillion/Twin Stars”
Taiwan’s Industrial Development Plans
Biotechnology
Industry
Semiconductor
Industry
Digital
Content
Industry
Display
Industry
"Two Trillion" refers to the semiconductor and display industries, each of
which is expected to reach shipment value of NT$ one trillion by 2006
Source :MOEA
Commodity
Non-Commodity
PC
DRAM
TFT-LCD
Solar Panel
Fabrication
- TSMC, UMC
Fabless ODM
- Qualcomm, Broadcomm,
MediaTek
System Integrator
- iPhone, iPod
size,
capital,
early entry
technology,
innovation
軟體工業
數位內容
生醫科技
文化創意
服務觀光
Labor Force
Reduction
Wealth
The China Example
 History:
–
–
–
–
Xia Dynasty: 2100 – 1600 B.C.
Qin Dynasty: 221 - 206 B.C.
Republic of China: 1911
People’s Republic of China: 1949
 Population : 1.3 billion
 Area: 9.6 million sq mi
The China Example
 Population: 1.3 billion
(India:1.1 billion, USA: 300 million)
A large working force:
an economic power
A large consumer market:
an attractive force,
a driving force
Economic Power
Source: Wikipedia
Economic Power
U.S. Dollar to Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate
Building Infrastructure
USD 225 billion vs 35 billion for India (2007)
Attractive Power
Suzhou Industrial Parks:
China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park
3,000 companies
Revenue: USD 56.7 billion
Investment: USD 30.4 billion
Area: 70 km2
Suzhou New District Industrial Park
Diminishing the Technology Gap
5 Years
7
2-3
Years
Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) SanYa 2007,
Source: ITRS,DIR,SMIC,SEMI, October 2007
Driving Power
 Mobile Phone
– World total 2 billion
 Technology
– GPRS (General Packet Radio Service)
– TD-CDMA (Time Division Code Division Multiple
Access)
– TD-SCDMA (Time Division Synchronous
Code Division Multiple Access)
The Hong Kong Example
 British Territory: 1842
Transfer of Sovereignty: 1997
 Area: 11.04 sq mi
 Population : 7 million
 GDP: USD 28,982
The Hong Kong Example
 Free Markets: ranked as the most free
economy in the world (Index of Economic
Freedom), placed first in Economic
Freedom of the World Report
 Low Taxation: no sales tax, no capital gains
tax, no VAT, no inheritance tax, maximum
salary tax 20%, maximum profit tax 16 %
 Government Non-intervention
 British Common Law Tradition
The Hong Kong Example
The Hong Kong Example
Hong Kong Science & Technology Parks
The Hong Kong Example
Hong Kong Shenzhen Megalopolis
Population: 8.27 million
Area: 2,020 km2
Foreign Investment: USD 30 billion
Natural Resources
Depletion
Wealth
The Dutch Disease
Booming Sector
Lagging Sector
The Dutch Disease
Booming Sector: Oil, Gas, Gold, Copper









Lagging Sector: Manufacturing, Agriculture
Non-traded Sector: Service
Diversification
Development of New Talents
Wage
Currency Exchange Rate
Revenue Volatility
Social Conflicts
Effective and Responsible Government
United Arab Emirates
 Population: 4.5 million
 Area: 32,278 sq mi
 GDP: USD 42,275
Oil Reserves
Source: Wikipedia
The Dubai Example
 Population: 2.2 million
 Area: 1,584 sq mi
497 sq mi (metro)
Oil and Natural Gas Revenue:
2% of that of UAE
6% of total revenue
Oil and Natural Gas Reserve:
UAE : 100 years
Dubai: 20 years
The Dubai Example
The Macau Example
 Macau:
Portuguese settlers: 1557
Portuguese Colony: 1887
Hand over to PRC: 1999
 Area 11.04 sq mi
 Population : 500,000
Economy of Macau
GDP of Macau ($M)
US$ (M$)
$36,357
$40,000
$28,857
$30,000
$24,369
$22,634
$17,805
$20,000
$10,000
$0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Gambling Revenue ($M)
US$ (M$)
$10,889
$12,000
$10,000
$7,470
$8,000
$5,651
$6,000
$6,121
$3,937
$3,907
$4,000
$2,000
$0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 Q1
Economy of Macau
$B (USD)
2008
Total Revenue
$6.5
2009
?
Gambling
$4.2 = $12.0 x 35%
Others
$2.3
Budget
$4.0
$5.6
Surplus
$2.5
?
Economy of Macau
2008 : Surplus $2.5 B (USD)
One time cash rebate to every permanent resident: USD650
Yearly cash gift to every senior permanent resident: USD460
(was USD230 in 2007)
2009 : (Announcement)
One time cash rebate to every permanent resident: at least USD650
The Macau Example
 Diversification:
– Exhibition and Convention
– Resort and Recreation
– Arts and Culture
 Development of New Talents: Education
 Wage: Up
 Revenue Volatility: Competition for Gaming
Revenue from other Places in the Region
 Social Issues
Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge
18 miles (29 kilometers)
USD 2~3.7 billion
The World is Flat
80
80
GR
EE
N
70
80
LA
ND
70
60
60
50
40
A
30
T ROPIC OF CANCER
TL
PACIFIC
10
TI
30
C
20
A F R IC A
10
C
SOUTH
AMERICA
10
30
20
E
10
20
T ROPIC OF CAPRICORN
40
PACIFIC
OCEAN
O
OCEAN
20
50
A S IA
T ROPIC OF CANCER
N
EQUAT OR
10
R
EU
E
OP
40
30
A
70
60
50
40
20
80
ND
LA
60
50
NORTH
AMERICA
N
EE
GR
70
10
INDIAN
OCEAN
A
EQUAT OR
10
N
20
20
10
20
T ROP OF CAPRICORN
AUSTRALIA
30
30
40
40
50
50
60
60
70
70
80
80
30
30
40
40
50
50
60
60
70
70
80
80
30
30
40
40
50
50
60
60
70
70
80
ANTARCTICA
80
30
30
40
40
50
50
60
60
70
70
80
80
Fairer Competition
The World is Small
Closer Cooperation
The World is Beautiful
Sharing and Caring
Healthy and Harmonious
Prosperous and Peaceful
It is a small world
It's a world of laughter, a world of tears;
It's a world of hopes and a world of fears.
There's so much that we share
That it's time we're aware,
It's a small world after all.
It's a small world after all,
It's a small world after all,
It's a small world after all,
It's a small, small world.
人人常歡笑 不要眼淚掉
時時懷希望 不必心裡跳
在那人世間
相助共濟
應知人間小得俏
世界真細小小小
小得真奇妙妙妙
實在真係細世界
嬌小而妙俏