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isa- UK intelligent speed adaptation ISA across Europe Overview November 2002 Trials around Europe - S S Sweden Warning system “speed checker” Umeå Active accelerator Swedish findings and strategy Accident prediction in line with earlier UK report National map to be created ISA will be fitted to SNRA fleet Agreement to be secured with car industry by 2005 to fit all new vehicles as of 2010 If no agreement is obtained, then the Minister has said he will push for a directive ISA around Euope – NL & DK NL Driver acceptability and Technical possibilities DK 50 km/h - you are driving toofast Comparison of different designs New projects in: France (with involvement of Renault and Peugeot/Citroen) Belgium (2 projects) UK research on ISA DETR funded External Vehicle Speed Control (EVSC) project, 1997-2000 Develop a technical specification of a future system Assess legal implications and acceptability Study driver behaviour Predict accident savings and side effects (congestion, fuel consumption, emissions) Design an implementation strategy DfT funded ISA project, 2001-05 Field trials with 20 vehicles Further experimental work Technology development Motorcycle and large truck demonstrators Driver behaviour with ISA On-road trials in EVSC (external vehicle speed control) 72 drives 42 mile route Route covered all road categories and all speed limits except 20 mph 2 ISA variants studied — voluntary and mandatory Speed profile (mandatory system) in rural area 70 Without ISA With ISA 60 Speed (mph) 50 40 village (40mph) 30 village (40mph) 20 10 roundabout 0 4 5 6 7 8 Distance along route (miles) 9 10 Negative interactions and conflicts 25 20 15 Baseline 10 Voluntary 5 0 Run 1 Mandatory Run 2 Run 3 Findings from on-road trials Driver speed was mostly dictated by road geometry and traffic ISA most effective in urban areas/rural villages Drivers thought the voluntary system was preferable Drivers did not feel “out of the loop” or exhibit signs of being so Accident Prediction and Implementation Path Changes in distribution of speeds 0.6 0.04 0.5 Frequency Frequency 0.03 0.02 Norm Dist Translation 0.01 0.4 Norm Dist Transformation 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 Advisory speed limiter: change in mean speed 2 3 0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Mandatory speed limiter: change in shape of distribution Formulae used for accident prediction Mean speed: For each 1 mph change in mean speed the change in accident risk is as follows (derived from Finch et al., 1994): Low estimate 3.75% Best estimate 5.00% High estimate 9.70% Speed variance: The formula applied for the relationship between speed variance and risk was derived from West and Dunn (1971) and is: y = 0.0139x2 + 0.0140x where y is relative risk and x is the speed difference of a vehicle from mean speed in mph Predicted accident reduction from ISA for GB Advisory: information only Driver Select: voluntary control Mandatory: speed limited all the time Fixed: limits as now (posted) Variable: + lower where needed Dynamic: + lower when needed Intervention Level Speed Limit System Fixed Variable Dynamic Advisory 10% 10% 13% Driver Select 10% 11% 18% Mandatory 20% 22% 36% 59% reduction in fatal accidents Other benefits Annual saved fuel consumption: Petrol £198m Diesel £117m Costs Information supply Create digital road maps Maintain road maps Distribute road maps (Broadcast current speed limits) On-board system to locate vehicle Control on the vehicle HMI B/C ratios for alternative versions of ISA Low GDP Growth High GDP Growth System Fixed Variable Dynamic Fixed Variable Dynamic Advisory 5.0 5.3 7.0 6.9 7.2 9.6 Driver Select 3.7 4.0 6.1 5.0 5.4 8.3 Mandatory 7.4 8.0 12.2 10.0 10.9 16.7 The recommended implementation scenario from the EVSC project Mandatory usage 2019 Production 2013 Standards enacted Decision 2010 2005 2000 This gives time for implementing dynamic ISA 2020