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Aggregate Expenditure Components CHAPTER 24 © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 1 Consumption Consumption both reflects income and depends on income There is a stable and positive relationship between consumption and income both for the household and for the economy 2 Consumption Function Because consumption depends on income, we say that consumption is a function of income Consumption is the dependent variable Disposable income is the independent variable 3 Marginal Propensities to Consume and Save What happens to consumption and saving when income changes? Marginal Propensity to Consume, MPC equals the change in consumption divided by the change in income Marginal Propensity to Save, MPS equals the change in saving divided by the change in income MPC + MPS = 1 This equality exists because all disposable income must either be spent on consumption or saved 4 Nonincome Determinants Along a given consumption function, consumer spending depends on the level of disposable income in the economy, other things constant What are these factors that could cause the entire consumption function to shift? Net Wealth Price Level Interest Rate Expectations 5 Net Wealth Net wealth is the value of all assets that households own minus any liabilities, or debts owed A decrease in net wealth would make consumers less inclined to spend – more inclined to save the consumption function would shift from C down to C’ in Exhibit 6 Increase in net wealth increases consumption consumption function would shift from C to C” 6 Shifts and Movements Along Difference between a movement along the consumption function and a shift of the consumption function Movement along the consumption function results from a change in income Shift of the consumption function results from a change in one of the nonincome determinants of consumption 7 Price Level Some household wealth is held in dollar-denominated assets such as bank accounts and cash Whenever the price level changes, the real value of these dollar-denominated financial assets changes Increase in the price level reduces the purchasing power of wealth held in fixed dollar assets households consume less and save more Decreases in the price level increase the purchasing power of wealth held in fixed assets households consumer more and save less 8 Interest Rate Interest The reward savers earn for deferring consumption and, the cost paid by borrowers for current spending power The higher the interest rate, the less is spent on items purchased on credit households save more and borrow less consumption function shifts downward Conversely, a lower interest rate shifts the consumption function upward 9 Expectations Expectations influence economic behavior in a variety of ways Changing expectations about price levels, interest rates, job security and other such factors influence consumer behavior If expectations become more pessimistic consumption function shifts downward If expectations become more optimistic consumption function shifts upward 10 Investment Investment consists of spending on New factories and new equipment New housing Net change in inventories Firms invest in capital goods now in the expectation of a future return Since the return is in the future, investors must estimate how much a particular investment will yield in all years of its productive life 11 Investment Firms buy new capital goods only if they expect this investment to yield a greater return than other possible uses of their funds Recall the distinction between Gross investment Net investment 12 Demand for Investment The expected rate of return equals the annual dollar earnings expected from the investment divided by the purchase price 13 Investment Should the firm invest in golf carts, and if so, how many? Suppose they plan to borrow the money to buy the carts the number of carts they purchase will depend on the interest rate they must pay to borrow the money If we now suppose that the market interest rate is 8% per year, the first three carts, all with expected rates of return exceeding 8%, would more than pay for themselves 14 Investment The step like relationship indicates the amount to be invested in golf carts at each interest rate When the interest rate is 8%, profit will be maximized when $6,000 is invested in the carts The market interest rate is the opportunity cost of investing in capital 15 From Micro to Macro Other things constant, more is invested when the opportunity cost of borrowing is lower With some modifications, the downward sloping demand curve for the entire economy can be derived from a horizontal summation of all industries’ downward sloping investment demand curves 16 Planned Investment and Income Investment depends more on interest rates and on business expectations than on the prevailing level of income One reason for this is that some investments take years to complete Additionally, investment, once in place, is expected to last for years Thus, the investment decision is said to be “forward looking,” based more on expected profit than on current levels of income and output 17 Investment Function The simplest investment function assumes that planned investment is unrelated to the current level of disposable income That is, investment is assumed to be autonomous with respect to income planned investment does not vary even though real disposable income does 18 Investment Function The investment function isolates the relationship between the level of income in the economy and planned investment – the amount firms would like to invest – other things constant Two of the determinants of investment that are assumed to be constant are The market interest rate Business expectations 19 Market Interest Rate In Exhibit 8, when the interest rate was 8%, planned investment is $0.8 trillion shown as I A decline in the rate of interest from, say 8% to 6%, other things remaining constant, will reduce the cost of borrowing and increase planned investment from $0.8 to $0.9 trillion investment function shifts upward from I to I" 20 Business Expectations The primary determinant of investment is business expectations If firms become more pessimistic about profit prospects, planned investment will decrease at every level of income as shown by the shift in the investment function from I to I’ in Exhibit 9 On the other hand, if profit expectations become rosier, the investment function will shift upward from I to I” 21 Business Expectations Factors that could affect business expectations hence investment would include Wars Technological change Changes in the tax structure Other destabilizing events that make longterm planning more uncertain 22 Government Purchase Function Government purchases in 2001 accounted for about 18% of GDP One-third of the total was by the federal government Two-thirds by state and local governments The government purchase function relates government purchases to the level of income in the economy, other things constant 23 Government Purchase Function Because decisions about government purchases are largely under the control of public officials, they do not depend directly on the level of income in the economy Therefore, we assume that government purchases, G, are autonomous, or independent of the level of income 24 Transfer Payments Government purchases represent only one of the components of government outlays The other is transfer payments Outright gifts from governments to households and are thus not considered part of aggregate expenditure Social Security Welfare benefits and Unemployment benefits Make up about a third of government outlays Transfer payments vary inversely with income as income increases, transfer payments decline 25 Net Taxes To fund government outlays, governments impose taxes Taxes vary directly with income as income increase, so do taxes Net taxes equal taxes minus transfers Since taxes tend to increase with income while transfers decrease with income, we will assume that net taxes, NT, are autonomous, or independent of income 26 Net Taxes Net taxes affect aggregate spending indirectly by changing disposable income, which in turn changes consumption In our discussion of the circular flow that by subtracting net taxes, we transform real GDP into disposable income 27 Net Exports The rest of the world affects aggregate expenditure through imports and exports The United States, with only onetwentieth of the world’s population – accounts for about one-sixth of the world’s imports and one-eighth of the world’s exports 28 Net Exports and Income How do imports and exports relate to the level of income in the economy? When their incomes rise, Americans spend more on everything including exports and when incomes decline, Americans spend less on imports How does the value of U.S. exports relate to the economy’s level of income? The exports purchased by the rest of the world depends on the income of foreigners, not on the U.S. level of income 29 Net Export Function The net export function shows the relationship between net exports and the level of income in the economy, other things constant Since exports are relatively insensitive to the level of U.S. income but our imports tend to increase with income, net exports – Exports minus imports – tend to decline as U.S. income increase However, for simplicity, we will assume that net exports are autonomous and independent of the level of income 30 Nonincome Determinants of Net Exports Factors assumed constant along the net export function include The U.S. price level Price levels in other countries Interest rates here and abroad Foreign income levels Exchange rates between the dollar and foreign currencies 31