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1 of 35 Chapter 20 The Measurement of National Income Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 2 of 35 In this chapter you will learn... 1. …how the concept of value added solves the problem of “double counting” when measuring national income. 2. …the income approach and the expenditure approach to measuring national income. 3. …the difference between real and nominal GDP and the meaning of the GDP deflator. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 3 of 35 In this chapter you will learn... 4. …about the many important omissions from official measures of GDP. 5. …why real per capita GDP is a good measure of average material living standards but an incomplete measure of overall well-being. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 4 of 35 20.1 National Output and Value Added Production occurs in stages — most firms produce outputs that are other firms’ inputs - intermediate products - final products Each firm’s contribution to total output is its value added value added = revenues - non-labour costs Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 5 of 35 Summing value added avoids the problem of double counting when measuring total output. Total value added in the economy is called Gross Domestic Product (GDP). APPLYING ECONOMIC CONCEPTS 20-1 Value Added Through Stages of Production Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 6 of 35 20.2 National Income Accounting: The Basics Three methods for measuring national income (output): • total value added from domestic production • total expenditures on domestic output (final output) • total income generated by domestic production Because of the circular flow of income, these three measures yield the same total — GDP. mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 7 of 35 Start with a very simple economy Domestic Households Factor income: wages, rents, profits Domestic Firms mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 Revenue from sales of final G & S 8 of 35 How does household income actually get used up? Domestic Households Savings Imports Consumption Taxes Factor income: wages, rents, profits Domestic Firms mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 Revenue from sales of final G & S 9 of 35 Do any other agents buy final G & S from Cdn firms? Domestic Households Investment Consumption Governments Foreigners (Exports) Factor income: wages, rents, profits Domestic Firms Revenue from sales of final G & S mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 10 of 35 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 11 of 35 GDP from the Expenditure Side Consider adding up the expenditures needed to purchase the final output produced in any given year. There are four broad expenditure categories: - consumption - investment - government purchases - net exports Actual consumption expenditure (Ca) includes expenditure on all final goods during the year. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 12 of 35 Actual investment expenditure (Ia) is expenditure on the production of goods not for present consumption, including: • inventories • plant and equipment • residential housing Actual government purchases (Ga) is the purchase of currently produced goods and services by government - excluding transfer payments. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 13 of 35 Actual net exports (NXa) is the difference between exports and imports: NXa = (Xa - IMa) Exports are purchases of Canadian-produced goods and services by foreigners. We subtract imports because they are not produced in Canada. Since total domestic output must equal total expenditure on domestic output, we have: GDP = Ca + Ia + Ga + NXa This is an accounting identity mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 14 of 35 IMa Ca Ia Ga Xa Ca + Ia + Ga + (Xa - IMa) = GDP mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 15 of 35 Does the accounting identity GDP = Ca + Ia + Ga + (Xa - IMa) imply that everything that firms produce each year is automatically sold to customers? NO! INVENTORIES! INVENTORIES! INVENTORIES! mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 16 of 35 A second very important word - CURRENT GDP = Ca + Ia + Ga + (Xa - IMa) All of the above symbols measure expenditures on real goods and services – cars, haircuts, cell phones and cell phone service, etc. All of the above symbols represent expenditures on goods and services produced in the CURRENT period (year) 17 of 35 Note exports were 35% of GDP Imports were 34% of GDP mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 18 of 35 GDP from the Income Side GDP is also the sum of factor incomes and other claims on the value of output. Factor incomes include: - wages - rent, interest, and profits net domestic income Non-factor payments include: - indirect taxes (net of subsidies) - depreciation of existing physical capital Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 19 of 35 GDP from the income side is therefore equal to: GDP = Net domestic income + Indirect taxes (less subsidies) + Depreciation EXTENSIONS IN THEORY 20-1 Arbitrary Decisions in National Income Accounting Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 20 of 35 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 21 of 35 Wages + Rent + Interest + Profits + Indirect taxes (less subsidies) + Depreciation Ca + Ia + Ga + (Xa - IMa) mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 22 of 35 What goes into the firm’s revenue must come out as wages, rent, interest, profits, indirect taxes or depreciation. The total revenue of all Canadian firms (the total expenditure on Canadian final goods and services) must equal the total value of factor payments plus indirect taxes and depreciation. Therefore an accounting identity it must be true that: Ca + Ia + Ga + (Xa - IMa) = Wages + Rent + Interest + Profits + Indirect taxes (less subsidies) + Depreciation mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 23 of 35 Canada and six other countries form what is called the “G7” group of advanced industrialized nations. For a comparison of economic growth in the G7 countries over the past decade, look for Growth in Canada and Other G7 Countries in the Additional Topics section of this book’s MyEconLab. www.myeconlab.com Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 24 of 35 20.3 National Income Accounting: Some Further Issues GDP and GNP A measure of national output closely related to GDP is Gross National Product (GNP). The difference between GDP and GNP is the difference between income produced and income received. Income produced in Canada versus income received by Canadians mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 25 of 35 GDP is superior as a measure of domestic economic activity. GNP is superior as a measure of living standards of residents. A measure of household income is disposable personal income: It equals GNP minus: - any part not actually paid to households (retained earnings, indirect taxes, etc.) - personal income taxes - plus transfer payments received by households mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 26 of 35 Real and Nominal GDP GDP that is valued at constant base-period prices is real national income. GDP Deflator = Nominal GDP x 100 Real GDP The GDP deflator is a comprehensive index of prices because it includes the prices of all goods and services produced in the country. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 27 of 35 Supplementary slide GDP Deflator GDP deflator is just another price index. The basket of goods is all final goods and services produced in Canada How is it calculated? GDP in 2005 measured in 2005 prices GDP in 2005 measured in 1997 prices [1368.9/1157.4] x 100 = 118.3 x 100 28 of 35 Do the CPI and the GDP Deflator Move Together? Broadly, the two price indexes move together, due to underlying inflationary forces. But because one tracks consumer prices and the other tracks the prices of goods produced in Canada, there will be some differences. APPLYING ECONOMIC CONCEPTS 20-2 Calculating Nominal and Real GDP Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 29 of 35 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 30 of 35 Omissions from GDP National income accountants cannot measure economic activity that takes place outside of regular, legal markets: • illegal activities • leisure (consumption of non-work time) • the underground economy (tax & regulation avoidance) • home production (non-market activity) • economic “bads” (pollution) mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 31 of 35 Unless the unmeasured economic activity changes rapidly, changes in GDP will do a reasonable job of measuring changes in material living standards. GDP and Living Standards “Well-being” is a broader concept than material living standards: - GDP is not a complete measure of economic wellbeing - but income is a very important part of well-being and GDP is a good measure of income. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 32 of 35 How useful are the various measures of GDP? They are very useful for tracking the year-to-year changes in the level of economic activity (market activity). They are useful in tracking changes in economic activity, productivity, etc. over the longer term in a given country. But remember, GDP measures only what goes through markets – what is bought and sold. mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 33 of 35 Are they good measures of the level of human wellbeing (happiness) in a society? Only in a limited sense – material, market activity, with no consideration of things like pollution. Are they good measures of the change in the level of material wellbeing over time? Maybe, but care must be taken in making such an interpretation. (war, more labour force participation, degree of marketization, etc.) Do they provide the basis for comparing the level of material wellbeing across different countries? Only if the counties are of very similar in a deeper structural sense (Canada and the US or France maybe, but not Canada and Nigeria or Bolivia. mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007mfc2007 34 of 35 Some recent economic research attempts to uncover the determinants of individual well-being, or “happiness”. One of the interesting findings is that income appears to be less important than several other aspects of life. See What Makes People Happy? in the Additional Topics section of this book’s MyEconLab. www.myeconlab.com Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 35 of 35 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Canada Inc.