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I, Pencil "the key to understanding the world" "the absence of a mastermind" "if we can leave creative energies of humandkind uninhibited, there's no limit to what we can accomplish" "the market at work: the spontaneous configuration of the creative human energies of millions of people, with their various skills and talents organizing voluntarily in response to human necessity and desire“ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYO3tOqDISE MacroEconomics: Ch.7 Measuring Domestic Output, National Income, and the Price Level Microeconomics Macroeconomics Ch.7 Measuring Domestic Output, National Income, and the Price Level Macroeconomic Measurement and National Income Accounting: • Provide a sense of the economy as a whole • Allows for comparisons over time • Vitally important to the formation of public policy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The total totalmarket marketvalue value The of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given year. of all final goods and services produced Valuation using money as a common denominator. within •a country • avoids in a given year “double counting” (i.e. excludes intermediate goods used in production of final goods) Gross Domestic Product GDP is designed to measure what is produced (or created) during the current period Excluded transactions: • sales of existing assets / secondhand sales - used cars, existing houses • purely financial transactions (“transfer payments”) - welfare - social security - allowances - alimony - purchase of stock GDP: Expenditures Approach GDP = C + Ig + G + Xn Categories of buyers: • household consumers (C) • businesses (Ig) • government (G) • foreign buyers (Xn) Personal Consumption Expenditures (C) • includes durable goods, nondurable goods and services. Gross Private Domestic Investment—(Ig) • Final purchases of machinery, equipment, and tools by businesses. • All construction (including residential) • Changes in business inventory (may be a positive or negative number) GDP: Expenditures Approach (cont) Government Purchases (of consumption goods and capital goods) – (G) • Spending by all levels of government (federal, state and local) • Direct purchases of resources (labor in particular) • Excludes transfer payments (not associated with current production) Net Exports—(Xn) • Spending on goods produced in the U.S. is included in GDP, (whether the purchase is made domestically or internationally). • Many goods purchased in the U.S. are produced elsewhere (i.e. imports). Net exports (Xn) is the difference: exports minus imports positive or negative depending on which is the larger amount. GDP = C + Ig + G + Xn NOMINAL v. REAL GDP Nominal GDP: calculated using the current prices at time of production Real GDP: adjusted for price level changes (inflation/deflation) Over time, both prices and quantities are subject to change. Real GDP separates the effects of price changes and quantity changes. A price index is used to adjust from nominal to real GDP. GDP measurement: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUiU_xRPwMc&feature=related Nominal v. Real GDP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29S7FzI7s7g The Consumer Price Index (CPI) • measures the “cost of living” for a typical consumer. • uses a “market basket” approach; tracks 300+ goods and services commonly purchased, including: FOOD AND BEVERAGES (supermarkets, restaurants) HOUSING (rent, mortgage payments, heat, electricity, furniture) APPAREL (clothing, jewelry) TRANSPORTATION (cost of cars, insurance, public trans., airfare, gas) MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs, doctors, hospitals, glasses/contacts) RECREATION (TVs, toys, pets, sports) EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (tuition, postage, phone, computer) OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco, haircuts) GOVERNMENT CHARGES (tolls, taxes, license/registration fees) Shortcomings of GDP “Economic advance is not the same thing as human progress.” - John Clapham • does not measure unpaid output (parental care, volunteer work) • does not measure improvements in product quality • doesn’t directly measure living conditions • does not measure or track the distribution of income (although “per capita GDP” gives some – but not a perfect - indication regarding relative standard of living) • Legal and Illegal activities of the “black market” are not counted in GDP • Noneconomic sources of utility (crime reduction, divorce rates, etc.) are not covered GDP = C + Ig + G + Xn “[GDP] measures everything… except that which makes life worthwhile.” - Robert F. Kennedy Shortcomings of GDP (cont.) "Too much and too long, we seem to have surrendered community excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our gross national product - if we should judge America by that - counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for those who break them. It counts the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and the cost of a nuclear warhead, and armored cars for police who fight riots in our streets. It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children. Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. And it tells us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans." Robert F. Kennedy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, March 18, 1968 Why are changes in inventories included as part of investment spending? Suppose inventories declined by $1 billion during 2001. How would this affect the size of gross private domestic investment and gross domestic product in 2001? Explain. 7-5 If inventories declined by $1 billion in 2001, $1 billion would be subtracted from both gross private domestic investment and GDP. A decline in inventories indicates that goods produced in a previous year have been used up in this year’s production. If $1 billion is not subtracted, then $1 billion of goods produced in a previous year would be counted as having been produced in 2001, thereby overstating 2001’s production. 7-13 Which of the following are actually included in this year’s GDP? Explain your answer in each case. a. Interest on an AT&T bond Included. Income earned for the service provided to AT&T (letting them use your money) b. Social security payments received by a retired factory worker Excluded. A gov’t transfer payment (for services rendered in other years). c. The services of a painter in painting the family home Depends. A 3rd party painter is included; a son paid for painting his dad’s home is not. d. The income of a dentist Included. Payment for a final service. e. The money received by Smith when she sells her economics textbook to a book buyer Excluded. Secondhand sales are not counted. f. The monthly allowance a college student receives from home Excluded. A private transfer payment. g. Rent received on a two-bedroom apartment Included. Payment for the final service of housing. h. The $$ received by Mac when he resells his current-year model Plymouth Prowler to Stan Excluded. Secondhand sale. The production of the car counted when initially sold. 7-13 Which of the following are actually included in this year’s GDP? Explain your answer in each case. i. Interest received on corporate bonds Included; earned as a service of allowing the use of your money. j. A 2-hour decline in the length of the workweek Excluded. The effect of the decline will be counted, but the change in the work week itself is not the production of a final good or service or a payment for work done. k. The purchase of an AT&T bond Excluded. A non-productive transaction; just a transfer of ownership of financial assets. (If AT&T uses the money from the sale of a new bond to carry out an investment in real physical assets, that investment will be counted.) l. A $2 billion increase in business inventories Included. An increase in inventories only occurs as a result of increased production. m. The purchase of 100 shares of GM common stock Excluded. Merely the transfer of ownership of existing financial assets. n. The purchase of an insurance policy Included. Insurance is a service. 7-6 Use the concepts of gross and net investment to distinguish between an economy that has a rising stock of capital and one that has a falling stock of capital. When gross investment exceeds depreciation, net investment is positive and production capacity expands; the economy ends the year with more physical capital than it started with. When gross investment equals depreciation, net investment is zero; the economy ends the year with the same amount of physical capital. When depreciation exceeds gross investment, net investment is negative and production capacity declines; the economy ends the year with less physical capital. “In 1933 net private domestic investment was minus $6 billion. This means in that particular year the economy produced no capital goods at all.” Do you agree? The statement is wrong. Net investment of minus $6 billion does not mean that zero new capital goods were produced; it simply means depreciation exceeded gross investment by $6 billion. Explain: “Though net investment can be positive, negative, or zero, it is quite impossible for gross investment to be less than zero.” The statement is correct. If only one $20 shovel is bought by a construction firm in the entire economy in a year and no other physical capital is bought, then gross investment is $20—a positive amount. This remains true even if net investment is highly negative because depreciation is well above $20. Gross investment can never be less than zero. 7-8 SOLUTION