Download IPC-Sabancı University-Stiftung Mercator Initiative

International Cooperation
in Times of Global Crisis
Onur SAZAK
Istanbul Policy Center (IPC)
October 18-19, 2012
1
 Turkey is strongly in favor of a multilateral framework
to ensure that the commitments on a national level are
lasting
 There are a few international organizations that would
assume this role
 Turkey views G20 as the most able among the existing
international organizations because it is one of the few
multilateral bodies that include both least developed
countries and emerging economies
 The IMF can also serve this purpose given that the
fast-growing countries such as BRICs and Turkey will
have more representational and decision making
powers in the upcoming decade
2
GDP Growth in Constant Prices
12
10
8
6
4
GDP growth
2
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-2
-4
-6
-8
3
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
Per Capita GDP (current US$)
12000.0
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.0
4
Other Major Accomplishments
 Reduction in inflation
 Reduction in public debt
 Fiscal discipline
 Strong regulation and supervision of the banking
sector
 Major change in economic institutions under the
influence and guidance of EU anchor
 independent regulatory authorities
 competition law
 started with Custom Union Agreement
5
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Structural Change
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
.0
agriculture
industry
Services
6
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Share of exports in GDP
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
7
Composition of exports
8
Sophistication of Exports
9
Economic Complexity Index
 Another indicator of export sophistication as Economic Complexity




Index. As of 2009, in exports, Turkey ranks 43 out of 128.
According to the Index, Turkey exports are more complex than those of
the BRICs; Brazil, Russia and India, yet less than China, Thailand,
Romania, Bulgaria, etc.
Between 1968-2008 in terms of change in economic complexity Turkey
ranks 10 out of 128. This corresponds to an 80 % increase in Turkey’s
economic complexity over the last 4 decades
In the last 10 years Turkey recorded 10% increase in its economic
complexity
Turkey ranks 15 out of 128 in terms of it’s projected contributions to
global GDP growth by 2020
*Source: İl İl Dış Ticaret Potansiyeli Araştırması, Dış Ticaret Müsteşarlığı http://www.ekonomi.gov.tr/upload/7EF56F48-D8D3-8566452092D48A1F70B1/kitapmakro.pdf
*Source: Ricardo Hausmann, César A. Hidalgo, et al. The Atlas of Economic Complexity Mapping Paths to Prosperity. 2011
10
Economic Complexity Index
RANK
1
2
5
6
7
8
12
19
20
24
25
26
27
29
31
35
40
41
43
46
51
52
COUNTRY
INCOME 2009/$
JAPAN
39,738
GERMANY
40,670
AUSTRIA
45,562
FINLAND
44,581
SINGAPORE
36,537
CZECH REPUBLIC
18,139
KOREA
17,078
ISRAEL
26,256
MEXICO
8,143
HONG KONG
30,065
POLAND
11,273
CROATIA
14,222
ROMANIA
7,500
CHINA
3,744
THAILAND
3,893
PORTUGAL PRT
21,903
BULGARIA
6,423
CANADA
39,599
TURKEY
8,215
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
8,684
INDIA
1,192
BRAZIL
8,230
11
Average Ubiquity and GDP per capita, selected
countries, 2009
12
Import Dependence of Turkey’s Production
Structure
 Turkey has been facing is large current account deficits
 Intermediate goods imports of Turkey have increased 2.5
times more than the increase in manufacturing output
between 1994-2008.
 Share of traditional industries such as textiles and
garments has decreased and the shares of motor vehicles,
basic metals and fabricated metal products in
manufacturing have increased
 Share of imported inputs and raw materials in the total has
increased from 56 percent in 2002 to 62 percent in 2007
13
Conclusion
 Sustainable economic growth
 Sophisticated export
 Current account deficit
 Institutionalization, democratization, EU anchor
14