Download PPR October - Riksbanken

MPR October
211009
Figure 1.1. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
6
5
4
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
90%
75%
50%
Otcome
Forecast
-4
-6
-8
04
05
-4
-6
-8
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.3. CPI with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
6
5
4
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.4. CPIF with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
4
4
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.5. GDP-growth abroad
Annual percentage change
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
70
74
78
82
86
90
Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
94
98
02
06
10
Sources: IMF and the Riksbank
Figure 1.6. Difference between interbank rates and
government bond rates (TED spread)
Basis points
500
500
Sweden
Euro area
USA
United Kingdom
450
400
350
450
400
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 1.7. Difference between intebank rates and
expected monetary policy (Basis spread)
Basis points
400
400
Sweden
350
Euro area
350
300
USA
300
250
United Kingdom
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 1.8. Stock market movements
Index, 04.01.99 = 100
220
220
Sweden (OM XS)
200
Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
200
180
USA (S&P 500)
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 1.9. Stock market implied volatility
Per cent
90
90
OM X30 (Sweden)
80
EuroStoxx (Euro area)
70
80
70
VIX (USA)
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Sources: Chicago Board Option Exchange, Reuters EcoWin and STOXX Limited
Figure 1.10. Consumer confidence in Sweden, the
euro area and the USA
Net figures and index, 1985 = 100
30
160
20
140
10
120
0
100
-10
80
-20
60
-30
40
Sweden (left scale)
Euro area (left scale)
USA (right scale)
-40
20
0
-50
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: The Conference Board, European Commission and National Institute of Economic
Figure 1.11. Households’ net wealth and saving
ratio in the USA
Percentage of disposable income
650
14
600
12
550
10
500
8
450
6
400
4
Net wealth (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
350
2
0
300
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: Federal Reserve and Department of Commerce Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 1.12. GDP for the USA and the euro area
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
Euro area
-4
-6
USA
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Figure 1.13. TCW-weighted exchange rate
Index, 18.11.92 = 100
160
160
October
155
155
September
150
150
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.14. Comparison of recovery in Sweden,
the euro area and USA
GDP-level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100
110
110
USA
108
108
Euro area
106
106
Sweden
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
92
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 1.15. Comparison of recovery following
various recessions, GDP Sweden
Index in the quarter preceding the beginning of the recession = 100
118
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
118
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
1990 Q2
1996 Q1
2000 Q3
2008 Q1
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.16. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
September
-15
-15
October
-20
-20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
08
09
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.17. Households’ consumption, disposable incomes
and saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable
income
7
14
6
12
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
-1
-2
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable income (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
0
-2
-4
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources:
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.18. Confidence indicator and saving ratio
for households
Net figures and per cent
40
16
30
12
20
8
10
4
0
0
-4
-10
-20
Saving ratio (right scale)
-8
Confidence indicator (left scale)
-12
-30
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 1.19. Swedish exports and world market for
Swedish exports
Annual percentage change
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
Swedish exports
World market for Swedish exports
-20
-20
80
85
90
95
00
Note. Dots represent the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.
Sources:
05
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.20. Gross fixed capital formation
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
September
October
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.21. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
5000
5000
Employed, 16-64 years
Employed, 15-74 years
Labour force, 16-64 years
Labour force, 15-74 years
4800
4800
4600
4600
4400
4400
4200
4200
4000
4000
3800
3800
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.22. Employment rate
Employment as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year,
seasonally-adjusted data
84
84
September
82
October
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
80
85
90
95
00
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
05
10
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.23. Unemployed
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
Unemployment, 16-64 years
Unemployment, 15-74 years
October
September
4
2
4
2
0
0
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.24. Actual and trend productivity growth in
the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
October
-2
-3
HP-trend
-3
-4
September
-4
-5
-5
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.25. Estimated gaps
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
5
5
GDP
4
4
Hours worked
3
3
Employment
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.26. Nominal wages
Annual percentage change
12
12
September
10
10
October
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.27. Unit labour costs for the economy as a
whole
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable
income
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
-1
-2
0
Productivity
Labour cost per hour
Unit labour cost
-1
-2
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.28. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
4
4
CPIF
CPIF excluding energy
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.29. CPIF excluding energy and unit labour
costs
Annual percentage change
10
10
Unit labour cost
8
8
CPIF excluding energy
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.Sources:
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.30. Oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
Outcome
Futures, average up to and including 10 October
Futures, September
20
20
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 1.31. HICP in Sweden and in the euro area
Annual percentage change
5
5
Sweden
4
4
Euro area
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources:
Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.32. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
September
4.5
4.5
October
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.33. Real repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
3
3
September
October
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.34. CPIF
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
September
3.5
October
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.1. GDP abroad
TCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in
annualised terms
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
M ain scenario
-8
-8
Higher level of international growth
-10
-10
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.2. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
5
5
Higher level of international growth
4
4
M ain scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.3. CPIF
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
Higher level of international growth
3.5
3.5
M ain scenario
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.4. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
M ain scenario
1.0
0.5
Higher level of international growth
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: the Riksbank
Figure 2.5. GDP
Quarterly averages in per cent calculated in annualised terms
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
-12
-16
-16
Higher level of international growth
M ain scenario
-20
-20
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.6. GDP
Quarterly averages in per cent calculated in annualised terms
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
Increased labour productivity
-12
-12
M ain scenario
-16
-16
-20
-20
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.7. CPIF
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
Increased labour productivity
3.5
3.5
M ain scenario
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.8. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
5
5
Increased labour productivity
4
4
M ain scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.9. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.0
M ain scenario
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
Increased labour productivity
-0.5
-0.5
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: the Riksbank
Figure 2.10. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
4.5
4.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
Source: the Riksbank
Figure 2.11. GDP
Quarterly averages in per cent calculated in annualised terms
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
-8
-12
-8
-12
-16
-16
-20
-20
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.12. Production gap
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
5
5
Lower interest rate
4
4
Higher interest rate
3
3
M ain scenario
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.13. Labour market gap (hours worked)
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
5
5
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
4
3
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
07
08
09
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.14. CPIF
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
10
11
12
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.1. Long-term interest rates
Per cent
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Sweden
Euro area (Germany)
USA
United Kingdom
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.2. Government bonds in various euro
countries (difference compared to Germany)
Percentage points
3,5
3,5
Sweden
United Kingdom
Greece
Ireland
Spain
Italy
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
-0,5
-0,5
-1,0
-1,0
07
08
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.3. Two-year interest rates
Per cent
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Sweden
Euro area
USA
United Kingdom
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
Note. Government bonds with approximately 2 years left to maturity.
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.4. Monetary policy expectations in the
Euro area and the USA
Per cent
6
6
ECB
ECB 03-09-2009
ECB 15-10-2009
FED
5
4
5
4
FED 03-09-2009
FED 15-10-2009
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and the Riksbank
Figure 3.5. Monetary policy expectations in
Sweden according to money market participants
Per cent
5
Repo rate
Forward rate 03-09-2009
Forward rate 15-10-2009
Survey, Prospera averages, 16-09-2009
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Reuters Ecowin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
Figure 3.6. Monetary base
Billion SEK
450
400
350
450
The banks’ holdings of Riksbank certificates
Deposits including fine tuning
Banknotes and coins in circulation
400
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
jan/ 08
apr/ 08
jul/ 08
okt/ 08
jan/ 09
apr/ 09
jul/ 09
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 3.7. Households' and non-financial
companies' total borrowing from credit institutions
Annual percentage change
20
20
Households
15
15
Companies
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.8. Manufacturing companies’ borrowing
on the credit market
Billion USD and EUR
600
600
Bond issues denominated in USD
Bond issues denominated in EUR
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Figure 3.9. Long-term mortgage rates in Sweden
Per cent
7
7
Listed mortgage rate 5 years
Government bond 5 years
M ortgage bond 5 years
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Nordea, Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, SEB, Spintab, Stadshypotek, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 3.10. Single-family dwelling prices
Purchase price coefficient, whole country
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.11. Money supply
Annual percentage change
24
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Banknotes and coins
M2
M3
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.12. Exchange rates
SEK per euro and dollar
12
12
SEK/ EUR
11
11
SEK/ USD
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.13. World Trade Monitor Index
Index, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Figure 3.14. Purchasing mangarer's index in the
manufacturing industry
Index
65
65
Euro area
60
60
USA
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Institute for Supply Management and NTC Research Ltd
Figure 3.15. Export
Index, 2006 quarter 1 = 100
160
160
USA
Euro area
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 3.16. Consumer prices
Annual percentage change
6
6
USA
Euro area
TCW (100% )
5
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 3.17. Commodity prices
Index 2000 = 100, USD
350
350
Total
M etals
Other agricultural products
Food
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: The Economist
Figure 3.18. The Economic Tendency Indicator
Index, mean = 100
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
The Economic Tendency Indicator
M ean
+/ - one standard deviation
80
75
80
75
70
70
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.19. Confidence indicators for the
business sector
Seasonally adjusted net figures
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
M anufacturing industry
Construction industry
Retail trade
Private service industries
Total business sector
-40
-60
-40
-60
-80
-80
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.20. Manufacturing output and orders
Index 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
130
130
M anufacturing output
Orders
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.21. Disposable income and savings
Annual percentage change and per cent of disposable income
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
Savings ratio
Real disposable income
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.22. Retail sales and household
consumption
Annual percentage change, calendar adjusted data
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
Households' consumption of retail goods
Retail sales
Households' total consumption
-2
-4
-4
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Note. Non-calendar-adjusted data.
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.23. Households' expectations for the
future
Net figures
75
75
60
45
60
45
30
15
30
15
0
-15
0
-15
-30
-45
-30
-45
Unemployment
-60
-75
-60
-75
Confidence Indicator
-90
-90
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.24. General government net lending
Per cent of GDP
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
-12
-12
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.25. Gross fixed capital formation
Annual percentage change
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
Business sector excluding housing
Housing
Public authorities
-30
-40
-40
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.26. Foreign trade with goods in fixed
prices
Three-month changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally adjusted data
75
75
Export
Import
50
50
25
25
0
0
-25
-25
-50
-50
-75
-75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.27. New export orders
Net figures and annual percentage change
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
Orders, NIER (net figures)
-40
Orders, Statistics Sweden (annual percentage change)
-60
-60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.28 Employment rate, labour force and
unemployment
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
5000
10
Employment rate (left)
Labour force (left)
Unemployment (right)
4800
8
4600
6
4400
4
4200
2
4000
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Employment service and the Riksbank
Figure 3.29. New and unfilled vacant jobs and
redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
20
100
New vacancies (left scale)
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
Redundancy notices (right scale)
80
16
60
12
40
8
20
4
0
0
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Employment service and the Riksbank
Figure 3.30. Proportion of companies reporting a
shortage of labour
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
70
70
M anufacturing industry
Construction sector
Retail trade
Private sector industries
Business sector
60
50
60
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
91
95
99
03
07
11
Source: National Insitute of Economic Research
Figure 3.31. Employees in the business sector,
expectations and outcome
Seasonally adjusted net figures
30
30
Expectations
20
20
Outcome
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.32. Capital utilisation in industry
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation
NIER, current capacity utilisation
70
70
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.33. Wages
Annual percentage change
8
8
Public sector
7
Business sector
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Figure 3.34. Wages in the business sector
Annual percentage change
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
Construction sector
2
2
Service sector
Industry
1
1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Figure 3.35. Expectations of inflation one year
ahead
Per cent
4.0
4.0
Households (NIER)
3.5
3.5
Companies (NIER)
All (Prospera)
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and TNS Prospera
Figure 3.36. All respondents' expectations of
inflation one, two and five years ahead
Per cent
4.0
4.0
1 year
2 years
5 years
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: TNS Prospera
Figure 3.37. The difference between nominal and
real five-year rates (break-even inflation)
Percentage points
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 3.38. Prices of goods and services in the
CPI
Annual percentage change
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
Services (43,5 % )
Goods excluding energy and food (26,3 % )
-3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.
-3
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.39. Food, energy and mortgage costs in
the CPI
Annual percentage change
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
Food (16.8 % )
Energy (8.9 % )
M ortgage costs (4.5 % )
-40
-40
-50
-50
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure B1. Mean square gaps for the forecast of
inflation and resource utilisation REVISED
Average squared deviation during the forecast horizon
10.0
9.0
Higher rate
Resource utilisation
8.0
M ain scenario
7.0
6.0
Lower rate
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Inflation
Source: The Riksbank
Figure B2. Money supply (M2), monetary base and
credit multiplier
SEK billion and ratio respectively
20
2000
1800
M 2 (left scale)
18
1600
M onetary base (left scale)
16
Credit multiplier (right scale)
1400
14
1200
12
1000
10
800
8
600
6
400
4
200
2
0
0
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B3. Single-family dwelling prices and
household lending
Annual percentage change
16
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
House prices
-12
-12
Household lending
-16
-16
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B4. Housing investments
Percentage of GDP, current prices
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
86
88
90
92
Note. Four-quarter moving average
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure B5. Real house prices in Sweden and
abroad
Index, 1980 =100
400
400
Denmark
350
300
250
350
Norway
Spain
300
Sweden
United Kingdom
250
USA
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Note. Single-family dwelling prices deflated using consumer price index.
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure B6. Households' new loans broken down
into different maturities
Per cent
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
96
97
98
99
00
Variable rate
01
02
03
Fixed rate < 5 years
04
05
06
07
08
09
Fixed rate > 5 years
Source: The Riksbank
Table A1. Repo rate forecast
Per cent, quarterly average values
Repo rate
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q4 2010
Q4 2011
Q4 2012
0.6
0.3 (0.3)
0.3 (0.3)
0.4 (0.4)
2.4 (2.4)
4.1
Source: The
Table A2. Inflation, annual
average
Annual percentage change
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
CPI
3.4
-0.4 (-0.3)
0.9 (1.2)
3.3 (3.3)
3.7
CPIF
2.7
1.8 (1.9)
1.3 (1.6)
1.9 (1.9)
2.1
CPIF excl. energy
HICP
2.0
3.3
2.3 (2.3)
1.8 (1.9)
1.6 (1.8)
1.2 (1.6)
1.7 (1.9)
1.8 (1.9)
2.0
2.0
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A3. Inflation, 12-month average
Annual percentage change
CPI
CPIF
CPIF excl. energy
HICP
Dec -08
Dec -09
Dec -10
Dec-11
Dec-12
0.9
1.6
1.7
2.1
0.4 (0.6)
2.1 (2.3)
2.2 (2.2)
2.2 (2.5)
1.9 (2.0)
1.6 (1.8)
1.5 (1.8)
1.5 (1.7)
4.0 (4.2)
2.0 (2.1)
1.8 (2.0)
1.9 (2.0)
3.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A4. Summary of financial
forecasts
Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise
specified
Repo rate
10-year rate
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-18=100
General government net lending*
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
4.1
0.7 (0.7)
3.3 (3.3)
139.7
(139.5)
-2.2 (-2.5)
0.3 (0.3)
3.9 (3.9)
129.6
(130.9)
-2.5 (-3.5)
1.6 (1.6)
4.5 (4.5)
128.3
(129.5)
-1.0 (-2.1)
3.6
4.9
3.9
127.2
2.5
128.2
0.2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A5. International conditions
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise
specified
GDP
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Euro area
USA
0.6
0.4
-4.0 (-4.1)
-2.6 (-2.9)
1.0 (0.7)
2.4 (1.5)
1.7 (1.7)
3.3 (3.3)
2.3
2.9
Japan
-0.7
-5.9 (-5.9)
1.2 (1.2)
2.0 (2.0)
1.8
OECD
TCW-weighted
0.6
0.5
-3.6 (-3.7)
-3.8 (-4.0)
1.8 (1.3)
1.1 (0.8)
2.6 (2.7)
2.0 (2.0)
2.7
2.3
World
3.2
-1.0 (-1.1)
3.3 (2.8)
4.2 (3.9)
4.4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
3.3
3.8
1.4
3.6
3.3
0.4 (0.4)
-0.5 (-0.5)
-1.3 (-1.2)
0.5 (0.5)
0.5 (0.5)
1.2 (1.2)
1.8 (1.8)
-0.7 (-0.6)
1.6 (1.7)
1.3 (1.3)
1.7 (1.7)
2.0 (2.0)
0.5 (0.5)
2.0 (1.9)
1.7 (1.7)
2.0
2.1
0.5
2.1
2.0
CPI
Euro area (HICP)
USA
Japan
OECD
TCW-weighted
Crude oil price, USD/ barrel Brent
Swedish export market growth
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
97
0.5
60 (62)
-9.2 (-10.7)
74 (78)
5.7 (3.2)
78 (81)
7.8 (7.5)
80
8.3
Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksba
Table A6. GDP by expenditure
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise
specified
Private consumption
Public consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Inventory investment*
Exports
Imports
GDP
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Final figure for domestic demand*
Net exports*
Current account (NA)* *
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-0.2
1.5
2.7
-0.6
1.8
3.0
-0.2
-0.4
0.8
-0.4
6.1
-0.7 (-1.1)
1.5 (1.1)
-17.3 (-17.1)
-1.4 (-0.9)
-12.8 (-14.7)
-15.0 (-16.1)
-4.6 (-4.9)
-4.4 (-4.7)
-3.3 (-3.5)
0.1 (-0.4)
7.6 (7.2)
2.0 (1.8)
0.6 (0.6)
-1.8 (-5.7)
1.1 (0.5)
4.6 (4.2)
4.1 (1.9)
2.5 (1.9)
2.2 (1.6)
0.9 (0.1)
0.6 (1.3)
7.7 (8.1)
2.1 (2.0)
0.6 (0.6)
5.7 (5.4)
0.2 (0.2)
7.3 (7.0)
6.2 (6.0)
3.4 (3.2)
3.4 (3.2)
2.1 (2.0)
1.1 (1.0)
8.3 (8.6)
2.2
1.1
6.9
0.1
8.2
7.4
3.7
3.7
2.5
1.1
8.7
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A7. Production and employment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
2008
Population, aged 16-64
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted
Employed (EU-definition)
Labour force (EU-definition)
Unemployment, aged 15-74 (EU-definition) *
0.8
-0.4
0.9
1.2
1.3
6.2
2009
2010
2011
0.6 (0.6)
0.3 (0.3)
0.2 (0.2)
-4.4 (-4.7) 2.2 (1.6)
3.4 (3.2)
-3.0 (-3.2) -1.7 (-2.0)
0.6 (0.5)
-2.4 (-2.4) -2.6 (-2.9) -0.1 (-0.3)
0.0 (0.1) -0.6 (-0.6) -0.2 (-0.3)
8.5 (8.6) 10.3 (10.8) 10.3 (10.7)
2012
-0.1
3.7
1.3
1.2
0.3
9.4
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A8. Wages and unit labour cost
for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
Hourly wage, NM O
Hourly wage, NA
Employer’s contribution*
Hourly labour cost, NA
Productivity
Unit labour cost
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
4.3
4.8
-0.7
4.1
-1.3
5.5
3.4 (3.3)
3.8 (3.5)
-0.5 (-0.4)
3.3 (3.2)
-1.4 (-1.6)
4.8 (4.8)
2.2 (2.2)
2.1 (2.1)
0.1 (0.1)
2.2 (2.2)
4.0 (3.7)
-1.7 (-1.5)
2.4 (2.4)
2.6 (2.6)
0.1 (0.1)
2.6 (2.7)
2.8 (2.6)
-0.1 (0.0)
2.9
3.2
0.1
3.2
2.3
0.9
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A9. Higher level of international
growth
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
TCW- weighted GDP
TCW- weighted CPI
TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent
GDP, calendar adjusted
CPIF
Labour market gap, per cent
Repo rate, per cent
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.5
3.3
3.8
-0.4
2.7
-3.8 (-3.8)
0.5 (0.5)
1.0 (1.0)
-4.4 (-4.4)
1.9 (1.8)
2.1 (1.1)
1.5 (1.3)
1.3 (1.0)
2.5 (2.2)
1.7 (1.3)
2.5 (2.0)
2.1 (1.7)
3.2 (2.6)
3.4 (3.4)
2.4 (1.9)
1.9 (2.3)
2.3 (2.0)
4.6 (3.9)
3.5 (3.7)
2.1 (2.1)
3.2
4.1
-0.1 (-0.1)
0.7 (0.7)
-1.8 (-2.1)
0.7 (0.3)
-1.4 (-1.8)
2.6 (1.6)
-0.8 (-1.0)
4.4 (3.6)
Sources: National Sources Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A10. Scenario with increased
labour productivity
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
GDP, calendar adjusted
CPIF
Labour market gap, per cent
Productivity
Repo rate, per cent
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-0.4
2.7
3.2
-1.3
4.1
-4.4 (-4.4)
1.8 (1.8)
-0.1 (-0.1)
-1.4 (-1.4)
0.7 (0.7)
2.7 (2.2)
1.1 (1.3)
-2.5 (-2.1)
4.9 (3.9)
0.0 (0.3)
4.0 (3.4)
1.8 (1.9)
-1.9 (-1.8)
3.1 (2.8)
1.2 (1.6)
4.1 (3.7)
2.0 (2.1)
-1.0 (-1.0)
2.6 (2.3)
3.3 (3.6)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A11. Scenario with higher repo
rate
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
GDP, calendar adjusted
CPIF
Labour market gap, per cent
-0.4
2.7
3.2
-4.4 (-4.4)
1.8 (1.8)
-0.1 (-0.1)
2.0 (2.2)
1.1 (1.3)
-2.3 (-2.1)
2.8 (3.4)
0.9 (1.9)
-2.7 (-1.8)
4.1 (3.7)
1.5 (2.1)
-1.4 (-1.0)
Repo rate, per cent
4.1
0.7 (0.7)
0.8 (0.3)
2.2 (1.6)
3.1 (3.6)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A12. Scenario with lower repo
rate
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Labour market gap, per cent
-0.4
2.7
3.2
-4.4 (-4.4)
1.9 (1.8)
-0.1 (-0.1)
2.4 (2.2)
1.5 (1.3)
-1.9 (-2.1)
3.3 (3.4)
2.1 (1.9)
-1.7 (-1.8)
3.7 (3.7)
2.1 (2.1)
-1.0 (-1.0)
Repo rate, per cent
4.1
0.6 (0.7)
0.1 (0.3)
1.6 (1.6)
3.6 (3.6)
GDP, calendar adjusted
CPIF
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank