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The Economics of European Integration Chapter 7 Growth Effects and Factor Market Integration © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Growth Effects • European leaders have long emphasised a different the pro-growth aspects of European integration. • These operate in a way that is fundamentally different from the way allocation effects operate. • They operate by changing the rate at which new factors of production – mainly capital – are accumulated, i.e. the name ‘accumulation effects’. © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Verbal Logic of Growth • Growth in income per worker requires more output per worker. • Nation’s labour force can produce more goods and services year after year only if they have more/better ‘tools’ year after year: – ‘tools’ means capital broadly defined: • physical capital (machines, etc.) • human capital (skills, training, experience, etc.) • knowledge capital (technology). © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Verbal Logic of Growth • ERGO, rate of output growth linked to rate of physical, human and knowledge capital accumulation. • Most capital accumulation is intentional and it is called investment: – thus: European integration affects growth mainly via its effect on investment in human capital, physical capital and knowledge capital. © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Verbal Logic of Growth: Summary • European integration (or any other policy) → Allocation effect → Improved efficiency → Better investment climate → More investment in machines, skills and/or technology → Higher output per person. • Medium run effects eventually peter out – Growth returns to its long-run rate. • Long-run effects raise long-run rate forever. © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Some Facts European Growth Phases, 1890-1992 © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Some Facts Growth in the WWII Reconstruction Phase © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Some Facts GDP per capita & rankings, 1950 and 1973 (1990 international dollars) 1950 GDP (1990 $) European Rank 1950 Change in Rank 19501973 GDP Growth Rate EEC average 4,825 8.0 + 1.2 4.2 EFTA average 6,835 3.6 -1.4 3.0 France 5,221 7 +2 4.0 Germany 4,281 9 +5 5.0 Italy 3,425 13 +2 4.9 UK 6,847 2 -5 2.4 © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Some Facts GDP per capita & rankings, 1950 and 1973 (1990 international dollars) – full list © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Some Facts GDP per capita & rankings, 1950 and 1973 (1990 international dollars) – full list, cont. © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Solow Diagram • Show medium run growth effects in simple diagram. • To simplify, start with whole EU as a single, closed economy with fully integrated capital and labour markets and the same technology everywhere. © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Solow Diagram © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Induced Capital Formation © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Integration Induced Investment Rate Rise © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Integration-induced investment in Spain and Portugal © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Integration-induced investment in Ireland © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Integration-induced investment in Greece © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Long-Term Growth in Solow-Like Diagram © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Long-Term Growth Impact of Integration euros/L Integration improves efficiency → improves investment climate → higher investment rate (s rises to s’) → faster growth (knowledge capital accumulates more rapidly) GDP/L s’(GDP/L) Y/L* s(GDP/L) C A d(K/L) B K/L* K/L =Knowledge/L © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Microeconomics of Capital Market Integration © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Welfare Effects of Capital ‘Migration’ • ‘Native’ capital-owners in home lose area ‘A’; home labour gains area A+B; Total economic impact on home citizens equal to area B. • Foreign capital still employed in foreign gains F; foreign labour loses D+F; total impact on foreignbased factors is -D: – if we count the welfare of foreign capital owners whose capital now works in home (gains C+D), so overall foreign welfare gain is C. © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Welfare Effects of Capital ‘Migration’ © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Labour Market Integration: Simplest Framework • Just like capital migration analysis © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Immigration: Facts © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Immigration: Facts (cont.) © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003 Unemployment © Baldwin & Wyplosz 2003