Download Background - MigrationWatch UK

Outline of the balanced migration
concept
April 2009
1
The UK’s population is 61 million today.
The Government forecasts it will hit 70
million in 2028.
70 per cent of this growth will be due to
immigration.
2
This growth assumes net migration of 190,000 a year.
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
2006
High migration (250k
p.a.)
Pricipal projection (190k
p.a.)
Balanced Migration
(estimates)
Natural change - no
migration
2011
2021
2031
2041
2051
Source: Natural Change, High migration and Principal Projection from GAD (2006-based).
Balanced migration projection derived from GAD principal and low migration projections
3
Migration is the single largest reason for
additional household formation nationally…
19%
38%
Migration
More adults
More pensioners
More single households
25%
Source : Estimated from GAD 2006-based population projections and DCLG New Projections of
households for England and the Regions to 2026.
4
Immigrants on work permits, not asylum
seekers, are now the main source
180000
160000
140000
120000
Work Permits
100000
Asylum
Spouses
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
90
93
96
99
'02
'05
'08
Immigrants by category
Sources: Work Permits: Migration Advisory Committee, skilled, shortages, sensible : Table 2.3 Work Permits plus First
Permissions plus an estimate of 50% for dependants.
Asylum:
Hansard 12 November 2008, Column 1214WA
Spouses:
Control of Immigration: Statistical Summary 1997 - 2007; Table 2.6 (EEA Spouses excluded)
5
Such large-scale immigration is a new phenomenon
250
200
150
100
50
0
04
00
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
-100
64
-50
Net migration into England 1964-2006 ‘000’s
Source: ONS – Parliamentary written answer WA91 -17.01.2005 and ONS International Migration Statistics November
2007
6
… is a matter of public concern…
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
74 78 80 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
Source: MORI Political Monitor: What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today (spontaneous)? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain
today (spontaneous)? Percentage saying Race relations/immigrants/immigration. (Figures mainly at April except for 74,77, 78 and 82 and Mar 05)
7
…and the recession will have only a temporary
effect…
8.0%
300
250
6.0%
200
4.0%
150
100
2.0%
50
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
0
72
70
0.0%
-50
-2.0%
-100
-4.0%
-150
GDP growth
Net migration
8
Balanced migration - in a nutshell
• Balanced migration would seek to bring the numbers of
immigrants into line with the number of emigrants.
• The main change would be to control the number of non-EU
citizens who are given the right to settle permanently in
the UK.
9
What would NOT change
• Free movement of people in the European Union
• The acceptance of genuine asylum seekers
• The admission of foreign students
• Genuine marriages
• The current Points Based system
10
An outline of the numbers
Spouses and fiancé(e)s
50,000
(Currently 62,000)
Other dependants
10,000
Settlement quota for those who came
with a work permit (that is non-EU citizens)
20,000
Net migration from EU 15
(the recent average is 30,000)
30,000
Net migration from new EU members
30,000
---------140,000
Net British emigration (latest year 2007)
96,000
----------
Total net migration (last year 237,000)
45,000
11
Impact of Balanced Migration
• Economy
– No change to current arrangements for EU. Nor for non-EU workers
who wish to work, not settle here
– Employers will continue to be able to hire non-EU foreigners to work
for them for up to 4 years, so long as the employee holds a work
permit
• Housing
– New household formation would be reduced by 40 per cent
• Population
– Stabilise the population of the UK at about 65 million by mid century,
otherwise it would approach 80 million in mid-century, according to the
Government’s central forecast
12
Benefits
• Balances the need for a competitive economy and the costs
of a rapidly growing population
• Provides, as the House of Commons Economics Committee
recommended, a "reasoned target range for net immigration"
to which immigration policies could be adjusted
• Reduces pressure on the environment, schools, transport and
the NHS
• Encourages British industry and commerce to train British
workers
• Improves the prospects for integrating newcomers to our
society
• Reduces the drain of talented people from third world
countries who need their skills more than we do.
13