Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
PEOPLE CLIMATE ENERGY Ron Oxburgh CO2 concentration and Global Temperature 400 0.5 0.4 0.3 300 0.2 250 0.1 0.0 200 -0.1 150 -0.2 2001 1921 1901 1881 -0.6 1981 -0.5 1961 -0.4 100 Temperature Variation (w.r.t. 1961-90) 50 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration 0 Smoothed Variation 1941 -0.3 Atmospheric CO2, ppm 350 1861 Difference (deg.C) from 1961-1990 0.6 FRANZ JOSEF GLACIER SOUTH ISLAND NEW ZEALAND 1880 TODAY The planet ► The ‘success’ of human beings ► Explosive growth in numbers ► Extinction of many other species ► Driven by need for Food Water Energy Waste disposal The Challenge ► Prosperity of Western World based on fossil fuels ► We have to do something ► BUT it must be: Technically practicable Politically practicable Soon enough Why are we hooked on fossil fuels? Fossil Fuels offer: ►Convenient energy storage - energy on demand ►High energy density Energy Density energy equal – volume different = 10 litre 60 -120 litre Strategy •Economise •Minimise burning fossil fuels •And minimise CO2 release to the atmosphere Is a totally renewables-based energy strategy possible? Maybe, but not yet. Why not? Renewables can be: •Low energy density •Location specific •Intermittent •Require high degree of optimisation •‘Expensive’ •Have an environmental Energy not easy to store At present few storage choices: ►Water ►Batteries ►Hydrogen ►Compressed air etc. None is generally convenient or efficient Intermittent Renewables ► ► ► ► Wind Wave Tide Sun Value would be enormously increased if economic energy storage technology were developed Continuous Renewables ► Hydro-power ► Geothermal* ► Landfill methane* ► Direct-burn biomass & urban waste ► Bio-liquid fuels Bio-fuels ► Essential for sustainable road transport ► Technology is in its infancy ► Currently bio-fuels very expensive ► Less energy/litre than fossil fuel liquids Ethanol Bio-diesel ► How much can we afford? ► Integrated production of fuel and food? Future Biomass Flows Urban waste Agriculture & Forestry Waste Wood paper etc. Bio-fuels Food Local Power Generation CHP Bio-mass returned to Land Other Re-cycling Carbon Capture & Storage Sequestration : essential transitional technology but with a cash & energy cost ► Trap CO2 at source Retrofit expensive (+50%?) New-fit (+25%?) ► Transport - pipelines ► Storage – a very familiar gas New solids – building materials Depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs Saline aquifers What are the obstacles to progress? •Our systems •Slow replacement of infra-structure - Cars 10 -15 years - Aircraft 20 -30 years Wind turbines 25 years Power plants 40+years Trains 30+ years Electricity distribution networks 40+ years - Houses 70+ years How might it happen? Cost Bio-fuels Fired Biomass, Wind Present Clean gas, coal, nuclear Time 2030 GDP & Energy use – various countries 2001 400 Energy Use, GJ per capita 350 Canada USA 300 250 200 Russia UK 150 100 50 0 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 GDP per capita, US$ 1995 ppp Primary energy Per Capita Increase in Energy Use vs GDP 1971-2001, Malaysia, China, Korea 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,00 $12,00 $14,00 $16,00 0 0 0 0 GDP per Capita Populations, GDP & energy 200 150 >$ 12,000 100 50 $5 – 12,000 Per cap. primary energy GJ 250 < $1,500 $1.5 – 5,000 0 0.0 2000.0 4000.0 World Population, millions 6000.0 A view from Brazil “We are not prepared to discuss reductions in emissions” Everton Viera Vargas, (Leader of the Brazilian delegation to Buenas Aires) 12/04 Kyoto Kyoto message “Energy is essential for our development and we cannot afford to pay world prices for oil and gas. Our possibilities are clear – coal and nuclear. We can develop them with or without help from the West. With help, coal will be cleaner and nuclear will be safer, but develop them we will” Conclusions ► Less expensive to respond to climate change than to ignore it ► Infrastructure changes slowly – start now ► Determined government action essential within and between countries ► A way must be found of supporting clean energy development in emerging countries …recommends •Implementing in 2010 a mandatory economy-wide tradable-permits system designed to curb further growth in the nation’s emissions of greenhouse gases…. •Increased funding for renewable technology research.. •Tax credit for all non-carbon energy sources… •Establishing a $1.5 billion fund over ten years to increase domestic production of advanced non-petroleum transportation fuels from biomass, including waste mTonnes pa CO2 to atmosphere 30000 25000 India 20000 China Mexico 15000 Russia Brazil 10000 Developed Countries 5000 0 2000 2050 Pop. Effect only 2050 Pop.+ Develt. The World's Main Coal Reserves 300 mTonnes 250 200 150 100 50 0 USA Russia China India Australia Per cap. Energy & GDP by IEA Grouping, 2001 Dd primary energy GJ 250.00 200.00 EU 150.00 15 E 100.00 50.00 Developing 0.00 0 P 5000 10000 15000 20000 per cap. GDP $US 25000 30000