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A Case For Clean Energy
Ian Baring-Gould
Sr. Engineer
Energy Development in Island
Nations – Pacific Island Energy
Symposium
Saipan, October 19-21st 2010
With the support of
Roger Taylor of NREL
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Energy
(Heat, Electricity & Fuel)
Human
Needs
Environment
Agriculture
(Air & Water)
(Food)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
So Why is Energy Important?
Other than our way of life
depends on it, it’s not really….
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
And to reach a high standard of living in
other areas will require more energy
Although nations
can obtain a high
GDP with lower
energy use (Japan
and Europe) the
direct link between
increased GDP
(and standard of
living) and
increased energy
use is clear.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
Where the global economy is very complex
And it’s largely dependent on cheap oil.
Resource
Raw Materials
Exploitation
Processing
Manufacturing
Consumption
Waste Heat
After: Charles Hall, SUNY Syracuse, ASPO 2005
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
Total U.S.
Oil Production
U.S. Oil Production
Big, New Discoveries &
New ‘Technology’
AK
10000 kb/d
...only shift the curve
DW
5000 kb/d
Lower 48
1930
Lower 48
2010
Alaska
2050
0 kb/d
Deepwater
Source: Tom Petrie at Denver World Oil Conference
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
The Age of Oil
2010
1930
1970
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2000
2050
Innovation for Our Energy Future
Our Great Grand Parents
7 Generations Span The Age of Oil
Our Grand Parents
Our Parents
Our Generation
20
80
Our Children
Our Grand Children
Our Great Grand Children
1930
1970
2000
2050
2100
Peak Oil Graph from: ASPO.com - Colin Campbell 2004
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Innovation for Our Energy Future
Diesel fuel prices are currently – US$3.11/gal with futures
trending upwards
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
And if it is local – then you don’t need to go
out and get it.
• Improved national
security
• Reduced energy
dependency
• Lower
transportation cost
and risk
• Better foreign
exchange
• Lower conflict risk
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
Humanity’s Top Ten
Problems for next 50 years
1. Energy
2. Water
3. Food
4. Environment
5. Poverty
6. Terrorism & War
7. Disease
8. Education
9. Democracy
2003: 6.3 Billion people
2050: 9-10 Billion people
10. Population
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Source: Nobel laureate, Richard Smalley
Innovation for Our Energy Future
Three Great Challenges of the 21st Century
Energy, Climate, Food
The Perfect Storm
It’s time to
change direction
SS Global Economy
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Innovation for Our Energy Future
Energy Security & Sovereignty
Through Local Self-Sufficiency
Economic
Dependence
Community
Independence
Oil Imports
Fuel at the Pump
National Grid
Coal-based Power
Water Transport
Foreign Manufacturing
Agro-Industry
Self sufficiency
Food
Energy
Water
“He who has the gold,
makes the rules.”
Skill Rebuilding
Local Production
Regional Sourcing
Sufficiency & Enoughness
Human Satisfaction
“Community of Cooperation”
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
Strategic Energy Planning
Defining where you are,
Where you want to go,
What are your energy options when considering
the wider implications, and
Developing a plan to get there.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
Carpe Ventem
www.nrel.gov
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future