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Using the ClosedEconomy One-Period Model Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Outline • Introduce graphical tools to illustrate Competitive Equilibria and Pareto Optimal allocations • Run experiments: Increases in government spending and total factor productivity. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-2 Competitive Equilibrium • Representative consumer optimizes given market prices (i.e. real wage w) • Representative firm optimizes given market prices • The government budget constraint holds: G = T • All markets clear Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-3 Graphic Analysis • Want to combine everything on one diagram • Start with production function: • In equilibrium, N = h – l, so Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-4 Figure 1 The Production Function (as a function of N) Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-5 Figure 2 The Production Function (as a function of l) Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-6 Graphic Analysis, c’td • Now, need to get to (C, l) plane from (Y, l) • Take the consumption market clearing: • And rearrange as: C = Y − G = zF(K, h − l) − G • Turn the production function into the Production Possibilities Frontier (PPF) Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-7 Figure 3 The Production Function and the Production Possibilities Frontier All the blue points are feasible for the economy Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-8 Marginal Rate of Transformation • Slope of the PPF is −MPN, marginal product of labor, but it has another name: • The (negative of the) slope of the PPF is also called the marginal rate of transformation (MRT): – the rate at which one good can be converted technologically into another. • So here MRTl,C = MPN • Also, in CE, MPN = w (firm’s optimization) 5-9 Figure 4 Consumer’s Diagram Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-10 Consumer’s Problem • Line ABD is the budget constraint, has slope w • I1 is the indifference curve, has slope MRSl,C • At the optimal point, I1 is tangent to the budget line ABD, hence they have the same slopes: Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-11 Key Properties of a Competitive Equilibrium • • • • Now we combine all conditions in one place: We have: MRTl,C = MPN = w And also: So the key condition that has to hold in equilibrium is: • And we can plot all parts in one picture Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-12 Figure 5 Competitive Equilibrium Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-13 Social Planner’s Problem • Computing CE is long and tedious even in the simplest models such as ours • We can work around this issue by solving the Social Planner’s Problem (SPP) • The welfare theorems tell us that we will arrive at the same allocation Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-14 First and Second Welfare Theorems • These theorems apply to any macroeconomic model • First Welfare Theorem: Under certain conditions, a competitive equilibrium allocation is Pareto Optimal. • Second Welfare Theorem: Under certain conditions, any Pareto Optimal allocation is also a Competitive Equilibrium allocation Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-15 What Social Planner Does, 1 • He acts like a benevolent dictator whose objective is to maximize the utility of the consumer, given the conditions of the economy. • Since he is a dictator, he doesn’t care about prices! Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-16 What Social Planner Does, 2 • In particular, he is able to: 1. Order the firm to hire Nd = N hours of labor and produce Y units of output. 2. Order the consumer to work Ns = N hours. 3. Take an amount G of output and give the remainder to the consumer. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-17 What Social Planner Does, 3 • Hence the planner’s problem is to choose C and l, given technological constraints, to maximize the utility of the consumer. • Formally, he solves: Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-18 Key Properties of a Pareto Optimum • In this model, the competitive equilibrium and the Pareto optimum are identical (there is only one consumer), so Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-19 Figure 6 Pareto Optimality Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-20 Figure 7 Using the SWT to Recover the Competitive Equilibrium Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-21 Asking Questions to the Model • Now we can finally ask our model some questions • We will conduct two experiments: 1. What will happen if the value of government expenditures G goes up (i.e. what will happen if the stimulus bill gets through)? 2. What will happen if the total factor productivity z in the economy suddenly goes up? Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-22 Figure 8 Equilibrium Effects of an Increase in Government Spending Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-23 Effects of an Increase in G • Essentially a pure income effect • C decreases, l decreases, Y increases, w falls • Does it agree with our business cycle facts? – (i.e. can we conclude changes in G are the major cause of the business cycles?) Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-24 Table 1 Summary of Business Cycle Facts Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-25 Effects of an Increase in G • Essentially a pure income effect • C decreases, l decreases, Y increases, w falls • Does it agree with our business cycle facts? – (i.e. can we conclude changes in G are the major cause of the business cycles?) • Apparently, NO (consumption should not be countercyclical) Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-26 World War II Increase in G • Very large increase in G • Y increases, C decreases by a small amount Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-27 Figure 9 GDP, Consumption, and Government Expenditures Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-28 Figure 10 Increase in Total Factor Productivity Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-29 Figure 11 Competitive Equilibrium Effects of an Increase in Total Factor Productivity Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-30 Effects of an Increase in z • PPF shifts out, and becomes steeper – income and substitution effects are involved. • C increases, l may increase or decrease, Y increases, w increases – Usually assume l will decrease, i.e. substitution effect is stronger – Here these effects cancel out each other Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-31 Effects of an Increase in z • C increases, l may increase or decrease, Y increases, w increases • Does it agree with our business cycle facts? – (i.e. can we conclude changes in z are the major cause of the business cycles?) • Apparently, YES (if l falls and hence N goes up) 5-32 Digression: How to Measure z • Employ the concept of the Solow Residual • Fitting Cobb-Douglas production function to U.S. data gives: • The Solow Residual is computed as: Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-33 Figure 12 The Solow Residual for the United States Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 4-34 Figure 13 Deviations from Trend in Real GDP and the Solow Residual Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 5-35