Download Slide 1

Birahima (aged 12):
“We’re the most famous celebrities of the late
twentieth century
We own every fucking thing … shoes and stripes
and radios and helmets. …
and Kalashnikov guns invented by the Russians so
you can shoot and keep shooting and never stop.
I don’t give two fucks cos I’ve been in Liberia and
killed lost of guys with an AK-47”.
Ahmadou Kourouma ‘Allah is not Obliged’
Risk of Civil War
40
35
growth
income
exports
trap
size
all else
30
risk
25
20
15
10
5
0
non-Africa
Africa
Growth Differential
6
5
4
%3
2
1
0
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
Population Distribution
Africa
Other Developing
Countries
Landlocked
Resource
Rich
Resource
Rich
Coastal
Coastal
Landlocked
%
Growth Spillovers
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Globally
Landlocked
other
developing
Landlocked
Africa
Commodity Boom in Africa
120
110
GDP index (2004=100)
100
80
75
60
40
20
0
year
Growth Rates:
Resource Rich Countries
1.6
1.4
%
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
weak Checks &
Balances
strong Checks &
Balances
Risk of Civil War
40
35
growth
income
exports
trap
size
all else
30
risk
25
20
15
10
5
0
non-Africa
Africa