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National Accounts Briefing
December Quarter 2014
Real GDP
6
Per cent
Per cent
6
Through the year
5
5
4
4
20-year annual average
3.2
3
3
1.9
2
2.5
2
Market expectations
1
1
0.5
0
0
Quarterly
0.4
Sep-13
-1
-1
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Note: The range of market expectations was 2.2 per cent to 2.7 per cent for through-the-year growth and 0.3 per cent to 0.9
per cent for quarterly growth.
2
Contributions to real GDP growth
(quarterly)
1.0
Percentage points
Percentage points
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Dwellings
Investment
0.1
0.0
0.0
Household
Consumption
-0.1
Change in
Inventories
New Public
Final Demand
GDP
0.0
Net Exports
New Business
Investment
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-1.0
Note: The sum of individual components does not add to the aggregate due to rounding.
-1.0
3
Household consumption
7
Per cent
Per cent
7
Through the year
6
6
5
5
4
20-year annual average
4
3
3.5
3
2.8
2
2
1
1
0.9
0
0
Quarterly
1.3
Mar-12
-1
-1
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
4
Household saving ratio
16
Per cent
Per cent
16
12.0
Dec-08
12
12
8
9.0
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
Dec-84 Dec-87 Dec-90 Dec-93 Dec-96 Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Dec-08 Dec-11 Dec-14
Note: The household saving ratio is the ratio of household net saving to household net disposable income.
5
Dwellings investment
10
Per cent
Per cent
8.1
8
8
6
10
Through the year
20-year annual average
4
6
2
4
2.5
2.1
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
Quarterly
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
6
New business investment
30 Per cent
Per cent 30
Through the year
25
25
20
20
15
20-year annual average
15
10
10
5
7.2
5
0
Quarterly
-5
0
-0.7
-4.4
-5
-10
-10
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
7
Capital expenditure
$billion
Mining
$billion
$billion
Non-mining
$billion
100
100
80
80
80
80
60
60
60
60
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
0
0
0
0
100
2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16
100
2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16
Note: Estimates of CAPEX have been adjusted using long run realisation ratios. Realisation ratios (actual expenditure divided by
the expected expenditure) adjust expectations for historical realisation patterns. Source: ABS Cat. No. 5625.0.
8
Business conditions and confidence
20
Net balance
Net balance
15
20
15
10
10
Confidence
5
5
0
0
-5
-10
Jan-10
Conditions
Jan-11
Source: NAB Monthly Business Survey
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
-5
-10
Jan-15
9
Export volumes
10 Per cent
Per cent 10
Through the year
8
8
7.2
6
6
20-year annual average
4
4.5
4
2
2
1.0
0
-2
-4
0
Quarterly
-2
-4
-6
-6
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
10
Import volumes
25 Per cent
20
15
Per cent 25
20
Through the year
20-year annual average
15
10
10
5
6.5
5
0
-5
0
-2.5
-2.6
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
Quarterly
-20
-20
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
11
Nominal GDP
12
Per cent
Per cent
12
Through the year
10
10
8
8
20-year annual average
6
6.1
6
4
4
2
2
1.7
0.6
0
0
Quarterly
-2
-2
-4
-4
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
12
Terms of trade and import/export prices
Index (2012-13=100)
Index (Dec-04=100)
120
200
110
110
175
100
100
150
150
90
90
125
125
80
80
100
100
120
200
175
Export prices
Import prices
70
70
60
60
Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14
75
75
50
50
Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14
13
Real gross domestic income
10
8
6
Per cent
Per cent
Through the year
10
8
20-year annual average
6
4
4
3.7
2
2
0
0.2
0.1
0
Quarterly
-2
-2
-4
-4
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
14
National Accounts Briefing
December Quarter 2014