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Material for
assessing
monetary policy
2006-2008
Figure 1. GDP for the United States, the euro area
and the world
Annual percentage change
6
6
USA
5
Euro area
5
4
World
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Eurostat, IMF, US Department of Commerce and the Riksbank
Figure 2. Policy rates in the United States, the
United Kingdom and the euro area
Per cent
7
7
Euro area
6
6
United Kingdom
USA
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: The Bank of England, the ECB and the Federal Open Market Committee
Figure 3. The difference between interbank rates and
government bond rates in 2007 and 2008 (TED spreads)
Basis points
500
400
500
Sweden
USA
UK
Euro area
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
0
Jan-09
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 4. CPI inflation for the United States, the
euro area and the world
Annual percentage change
7
7
Euro area
World
USA
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
Note. The HICP for the euro area.
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and the IMF
Fiugre 5. GDP for Sweden
Annual percentage change
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 6. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
5000
5000
Work force 15-74 years
Employed 15-74 years
4800
4800
4600
4600
4400
4400
4200
4200
4000
4000
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 7. House prices and total lending to
Swedish households
Annual percentage change
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
Lending to households
House prices
0
00
01
02
0
03
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Quarterly observations of house prices and monthly
observations
of lending
to households.
Sources:
Statistics
Sweden
and the
Riksbank
Diagram 8. Repo rate
Per cent
5
5.00
4
4.00
3
3.00
2
2.00
1
1.00
0
0.00
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 9. CPI inflation
Annual percentage change
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 10. Unit labour costs for the economy as a
whole
Annual percentage change
7
Labour cost per hour
Productivity
Unit labour cost
6
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 11. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
5
CPI
5
4
CPIF
CPIF excl. energy
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 12. Prices of food and oil products
Annual percentage change
12
24
Food (16.8% ) right scale
10
20
Oil products (4.7% ) left scale
8
16
6
12
4
8
2
4
0
0
-2
-4
-4
-8
-6
-12
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. The weight of the respective components in the CPI is given in brackets.Source:
08
09
Statistics Sweden
Table 1. Comparison of
different measures of inflation
2007-2008
Annual percentage change
CPI
CPIF
CPIF excl. energy
Annual average
2007
2008
2.2
3.4
1.5
2.7
1.6
1.9
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 13. Actual inflation and households’
expectations of inflation one year ahead
Annual percentage change and per cent
5
5
Households’ inflation expectations
Inflation target
4
4
CPI
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
05
06
07
08
09
Source: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 14. All participants’ inflation expectations
during 2008, 1, 2 and 5 years ahead
Annual percentage change
3.5
3.5
1 year
2 years
5 years
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Source: Prospera Research AB
Figure 15. Inflation expectations among money
market participants during 2008, 1, 2 and 5 years
ahead
Annual percentage change
3.5
3.5
1 year
5 years
2 years
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Source: Prospera Research AB
Figure 16. The Riksbank’s inflation forecasts and inflation
expectations among money market participants during 2008,
1 year ahead
Annual percentage change
3.5
3.0
3.5
The Riksbank's forecast
M oney market agents
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Sources: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
Figure 17. The Riksbank’s inflation forecasts and inflation
expectations among money market participants during 2008,
2 years ahead
Annual percentage change
3.5
3.0
3.5
The Riksbank
M oney market agents
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Source: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank
Figure 18. Households' expectations for the future
Net figures
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
The Swedish economy
Labour market
Own finances
-60
-60
-80
-80
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 19. New and unfilled job vacancies and
redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
100
20
New vacancies (left scale)
90
18
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
80
16
Redundancy notices (right scale)
70
14
60
12
50
10
40
8
30
6
20
4
10
2
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Swedish Employment Service
Figure 20. Employed, labour force and
unemployment
Annual percentage change and per cent of the labour force,
seasonally adjusted data
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
Labour force 15-74 years
Employed 15-74 years
Unemployment 15-74 years
-1
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
0
-1
-2
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 21. CPI inflation and alternative CPI outcome excluding shocks from international inflation and
productivity growth
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPI excl. shocks from international inflation
CPI excl. shocks from productivity growth
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 22. GDP growth and alternative GDP outcome excluding shocks from international inflation and
productivity growth
Annual percentage change
7
7
GDP
GDP excl. shocks from productivity growth
6
6
GDP excl. shocks from international inflation
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
04
05
06
07
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 23. CPI, outcome and forecasts
Annual percentage change
5.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
Outcome
4.5
Forecasts
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
M ar-04
M ar-05
M ar-06
M ar-07
M ar-08
0.0
M ar-09
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 24. Labour productivity, outcome and
forecasts
Annual percentage change
5.0
5.0
Outcome
4.0
Forecasts
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
M ar-04
M ar-05
M ar-06
M ar-07
M ar-08
-2.0
M ar-09
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 25. Oil price, outcome and forecasts, Brent
crude
USD per barrel
160
160
140
Outcome
140
Forecasts
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
M ar-04
M ar-05
M ar-06
M ar-07
M ar-08
0
M ar-09
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 26. GDP growth, outcome and forecasts
Annual percentage change
6
5
6
Outcome
5
Forecasts
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
M ar-04
M ar-05
M ar-06
M ar-07
M ar-08
-1
M ar-09
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 27. Number of employed, outcome and
forecasts
Annual percentage change
3.5
3.0
2.5
3.5
Outcome
3.0
Forecasts
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
M ar-04
M ar-05
M ar-06
M ar-07
M ar-08
-1.5
M ar-09
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 28. CPI inflation in 2008, outcome and
forecasts
Annual percentage change
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
The Riksbank
1.0
Other forecasters
0.5
Outcome
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 29. GDP growth in 2008, outcome and
forecasts
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
The Riksbank
3.5
Other forecasters
Outcome
3.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 30. Labour productivity in 2008, outcome
and forecasts
Annual percentage change
3.0
3.0
The Riksbank
2.5
Other forecasers
2.5
2.0
Outcome
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
e
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 31. The accuracy of the forecasts for CPI
among different forecasters 1999-2008
Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
KI
FD
RB
Average, other
forecasters
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank
Figure 32. The accuracy of the forecasts for GDP
growth among different forecasters 1999-2008
Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
RB
FD
KI
Average, other
forecasters
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.
Figure 33. The accuracy of the forecasts for
unemployment among different forecasters 19992008
Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
KI
RB
FD
Average, other
forecasters
Note. See the note to Figure 31 for an explanation of the abbreviations.
Figure 34. The accuracy of the forecasts for CPI
among different forecasters in 2008
Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
SHB
SEB
RB
FD
SWED
HUI
KI
SN
LO NORDEA
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.
Figure 35. The accuracy of the forecasts for
unemployment among different forecasters in 2008
Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
HUI
RB
SHB NORDEA SWED
SEB
LO
KI
FD
SN
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.
Figure 36. The accuracy of the forecasts for GDP
growth among different forecasters in 2008
Adjusted absolute average error in percentage points
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
SN NORDEA LO
RB
FD
SHB
SEB
SWED
HUI
KI
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.
Figure 37. Repo rate outcome and implied forward
rates in 2006
Per cent
5.0
5.0
Repo rate
IR06:1
IR06:2
IR06:3
4.5
4.0
3.5
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 38. Repo rate, outcome and forecasts in
2007
Per cent
5
5
Repo rate
M PR07:1
M PR07:2
M PR07:3
M PU December 2007
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 39. Repo rate outcome and repo rate
forecasts in 2008
Per cent
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Repo rate
M PR08:1
M PR08:2
M PR08:3
M PU December 2008
1
1
0
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 40. Repo rate and monetary policy
expectations in Sweden in February 2008
Per cent
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
Repo rate
3.0
Implied forward rates (STINA, FRA and swaps) 12 February 2008
3.0
Implied forward rates (STINA, FRA and swaps) 14 February 2008
2.5
2.5
Repo rate forecast, M PU December 2007
Repo rate forecast, M PR 2008:1
2.0
2.0
07
08
09
10
11
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 41. Repo rate and monetary policy
expectations in Sweden in December 2008
Per cent
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
Repo rate
Implied forward rates (STINA, FRA and swaps) 3 December 2008
Implied forward rates (STINA, FRA and swaps) 5 December 2008
Repo rate forecast, M PR 2008:3
Repo rate forecast, M PU December 2008
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: The Riksbank
Table 2. Outcome and forecasts made for different
variables 2008 during 2006, 2007 and 2008
IR 06:1
GDP 2008
BNP OECD 2008
Exchange rate TCW 2008 2)
Productivity 2008
Wages in the whole economy, 2008 (Hourly wages NM O)
Unit labour costs in the whole economy 2008
Persons employed 2008
Unemployment 2008 5)
CPI 2008
CPIF 2008
4)
2.4
2.61)
122.9
2.53)
4.1
2 3)
0.2
4.6
2.2
–
M PR 08:1
GDP 2008
BNP OECD 2008
Exchange rate TCW 2008 2)
Productivity 2008
Wages in the whole economy, 2008 (Hourly wages NM O)
Unit labour costs in the whole economy 2008
Persons employed 20086)
Unemployment 2008 5)6)
CPI 2008
CPIF 2008
4)
2.4
2.1
124.1
1.1
4.2
3.3
1.1
5.9
3.4
–
IR 06:2
2.4
2.51)
125.3
2.53)
4.1
2 3)
0.5
4.9
2.4
–
IR 06:3
2.7
2.61)
124.1
2.43)
3.9
1.93)
0.8
5.1
1.9
–
M PR 07:1
2.9
2.7
123.2
1.9
3.9
2.1
0.9
4.8
2.1
–
M PU apr 08 M PR 08:2 M PU sep 08
2.6
1.6
123.3
–
4.5
–
1.1
6
3.5
–
2.1
1.8
122.8
0.6
4.4
2.9
1.4
5.9
3.9
3.1
1.4
1.7
123.4
-0.5
4.2
3.7
1.4
6.2
3.9
3.1
M PR 07:2 M PR 07:3
3
2.8
123
2.1
4.5
2.3
1
4.5
2.3
–
2.8
2.3
122.4
1.5
4.5
3.1
1.5
4.3
2.9
–
M PU dec 07
2.4
2.1
–
–
–
–
1.4
–
3.6
–
M PR 08:3 M PU dec 08 OUTCOM E
1.2
1.5
125.5
-0.7
4.2
4.1
1.2
6.2
3.7
2.8
0.8
1.3
127.2
-0.7
4.2
4.5
1.2
6.2
3.5
2.7
7)
0.7
7)
1.1
127.2
7)
-0.8
7)
4.3
7)
4.7
1.2
6.2
3.4
2.7
1) OEC D-19 2) TC W index 18 November 1992 = 100 3) in the business sector 4) NMO refers to the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics.
5) per cent of labour force 6) With effect from MPR 2008:1 the Riksbank publishes forecasts for employment and unemployment in accordance with the EU definition,
which refers to the age group 15-74 years. 7) Statistics for Q4 2008 were not available when this material was compiled The figure refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR February 2009.
Sources: National Mediation Office, the OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank